AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 4:00 AM
#8Away
Texas A&M
0-0 · AVR 76.5
30p
#20Home
LSU
0-0 · AVR 68.3
23p
TA&M 68%32% LSU
Spread
TA&M -6.7
Total
53
Moneyline
TA&M-214LSU+214
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TA&M advantageevenLSU advantage →
TA&M throw
TA&M WR #1TA&M protection #120
LSU +20
TA&M run
TA&M line #120TA&M backs #40
LSU +42
LSU throw
LSU WR #5LSU protection #111
TA&M +25
LSU run
LSU line #111LSU backs #60
TA&M +55

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when TA&M throws
Mario Craver
vs
DJ Pickett
X · TA&M
CB1 · LSU
85.5
93.7
LSU +8
when LSU throws
Tre' Brown
vs
Marcus Ratcliffe
X · LSU
CB1 · TA&M
86.3
80.6
LSU +6
when LSU runs
Caden Durham
vs
Daymion Sanford
RB · LSU
MLB · TA&M
61.0
82.7
TA&M +22
when TA&M runs
Rueben Owens II
vs
TJ Dottery
RB · TA&M
MLB · LSU
74.1
69.2
TA&M +5
over the middle
Houston Thomas
vs
Ty Benefield
TE · TA&M
FS · LSU
57.9
79.0
LSU +21
over the middle
Trey'Dez Green
vs
Adam Graham
TE · LSU
FS · TA&M
61.1
70.8
TA&M +10

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Texas A&M
WRMario Craver
85.513/777
LBDaymion Sanford
82.739/878
SMarcus Ratcliffe
80.688/1427
QBMarcel Reed
80.221/308
LBRay Coney
78.869/878
CBRickey Gibson III
78.4108/1427

also out — Target After Missing, Former Texas A&M OL (OL), star safety (S), Chace Sims (DL), DT Sims, McGuire (OL), Myles (WR), Player 1 +3 more

LSU
CBDJ Pickettprobable
93.75/1427
CBPJ Woodland
88.818/1427
SDashawn Spears
87.324/1427
WRTre' Brown
86.311/777
WRWinston Watkins Jr.
71.444/777
LBTJ Dottery
69.2159/878

also out — projected offensive starter, Jamal Adams (CB), Former LSU football star, Decision Means Losing, Daniels Finally Speaks, Malik Nabers (WR)

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Texas A&M
opponent
LSU
home+26.5
Kentucky#67
+12.3away
home+19.0
Arkansas#40
+4.8away
home+7.7
Tennessee#17
-6.5away
home+3.5
Texas#9
-5.7home
away+0.6
Alabama#12
-3.5home

Projected margin

80% between -24 and 11
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTA&M +6.795% interval: -30.6 to 17.280% interval: -24.1 to 10.7-24+11TA&M wins 68%LSU wins 32%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TA&M 32–25 LSULSU 21–56 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLSU 25–53 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLSU 28–49 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesLSU 32–46 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesLSU 35–42 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesLSU 39–39 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesLSU 42–35 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesLSU 46–32 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLSU 49–28 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLSU 18–53 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLSU 21–49 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesLSU 25–46 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLSU 28–42 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesLSU 32–39 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesLSU 35–35 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesLSU 39–32 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesLSU 42–28 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesLSU 46–25 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLSU 14–49 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLSU 18–46 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesLSU 21–42 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesLSU 25–39 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesLSU 28–35 TA&M neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesLSU 32–32 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesLSU 35–28 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesLSU 39–25 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesLSU 42–21 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLSU 11–46 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLSU 14–42 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesLSU 18–39 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesLSU 21–35 TA&M neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesLSU 25–32 TA&M neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesLSU 28–28 TA&M neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesLSU 32–25 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesLSU 35–21 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesLSU 39–18 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesLSU 7–42 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLSU 11–39 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesLSU 14–35 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesLSU 18–32 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesLSU 21–28 TA&M neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesLSU 25–25 TA&M neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesLSU 28–21 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesLSU 32–18 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesLSU 35–14 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLSU 4–39 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLSU 7–35 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesLSU 11–32 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesLSU 14–28 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesLSU 18–25 TA&M neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesLSU 21–21 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesLSU 25–18 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesLSU 28–14 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesLSU 32–11 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLSU 0–35 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLSU 4–32 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLSU 7–28 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesLSU 11–25 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesLSU 14–21 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesLSU 18–18 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesLSU 21–14 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLSU 25–11 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesLSU 28–7 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalTA&M +35TA&M +21TA&M +7LSU +7LSU +21margin →