AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 4:00 AM
#31Away
Auburn
0-0 · AVR 62.1
24p
#17Home
Tennessee
0-0 · AVR 71.5
34p
AUB 23%77% TENN
Spread
TENN -10.7
Total
58
Moneyline
AUB+335TENN-335
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← AUB advantageevenTENN advantage →
AUB throw
AUB protection #51
AUB +8
AUB run
even
TENN throw
TENN QB #86TENN WR #10
even
TENN run
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when TENN runs
DeSean Bishop
vs
Xavier Atkins
RB · TENN
MLB · AUB
85.8
93.4
AUB +8
off the edge· hunting Phillips
Shamurad Umarov
vs
Cody Sigler
LT · TENN
EDGE · AUB
81.0
92.0
AUB +11
when AUB throws
Keshaun Singleton
vs
Ty Redmond
X · AUB
CB1 · TENN
86.7
78.0
AUB +9
when AUB runs
Jeremiah Cobb
vs
Amare Campbell
RB · AUB
MLB · TENN
78.7
77.3
dead even
when TENN throws
Mike Matthews
vs
Fred Gaskin III
X · TENN
CB1 · AUB
79.8
66.3
TENN +14
off the edge· hunting Brown
Jacob Strand
vs
Jordan Norman
LT · AUB
EDGE · TENN
53.1
82.3
TENN +29

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Auburn
LBXavier Atkins
93.44/878
WRKeshaun Singleton
86.79/777
WRJeremiah Koger
83.116/777
QBByrum Brown
81.319/308
RBJeremiah Cobb
78.729/514
LBColeman Granberry
78.082/878

also out — Fly, Tai Buster (OL), tight end (TE), Auburn Linebacker Likely, Auburn edge rusher (DL), Auburn linebacker (LB), J.J. Faulk (EDGE), Auburn RB (RB) +3 more

Tennessee
RBDeSean Bishop
85.85/514
WRMike Matthews
79.821/777
DBTy Redmond
78.0114/1427
DBQua Moss
77.8119/1427
LBAmare Campbell
77.387/878
WRBraylon Staley
75.532/777

also out — Jadais Richard (CB), EDGE Jaedon Harmon (EDGE), Jaedon Harmon (EDGE), Tennessee Football Starting Defender (S), Tennessee defensive back (DB), unknown (S), Farooq (S), Tennessee (S) +1 more

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Auburn
opponent
Tennessee
away-12.7
Alabama#12
+0.5home
home-1.6
LSU#20
+6.5home
home+5.6
Arkansas#40
+8.8away
home-1.9
Vanderbilt#23
+1.3away

Projected margin

80% between -7 and 28
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTENN +10.795% interval: -13.2 to 34.680% interval: -6.7 to 28-7+28AUB wins 23%TENN wins 77%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TENN 35–21 AUBTENN 32–46 AUB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTENN 35–42 AUB neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTENN 39–39 AUB neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTENN 42–35 AUB neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTENN 46–32 AUB neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTENN 49–28 AUB neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTENN 53–25 AUB neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTENN 56–21 AUB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTENN 60–18 AUB neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesTENN 28–42 AUB neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTENN 32–39 AUB neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTENN 35–35 AUB neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTENN 39–32 AUB neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTENN 42–28 AUB neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTENN 46–25 AUB neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTENN 49–21 AUB neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTENN 53–18 AUB neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTENN 56–14 AUB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTENN 25–39 AUB neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTENN 28–35 AUB neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTENN 32–32 AUB neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTENN 35–28 AUB neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTENN 39–25 AUB neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTENN 42–21 AUB neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTENN 46–18 AUB neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTENN 49–14 AUB neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTENN 53–11 AUB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTENN 21–35 AUB neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTENN 25–32 AUB neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTENN 28–28 AUB neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTENN 32–25 AUB neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTENN 35–21 AUB neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTENN 39–18 AUB neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTENN 42–14 AUB neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTENN 46–11 AUB neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTENN 49–7 AUB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTENN 18–32 AUB neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTENN 21–28 AUB neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTENN 25–25 AUB neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTENN 28–21 AUB neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTENN 32–18 AUB neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTENN 35–14 AUB neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTENN 39–11 AUB neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTENN 42–7 AUB neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTENN 46–4 AUB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTENN 14–28 AUB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTENN 18–25 AUB neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTENN 21–21 AUB neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTENN 25–18 AUB neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTENN 28–14 AUB neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTENN 32–11 AUB neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTENN 35–7 AUB neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTENN 39–4 AUB neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTENN 42–0 AUB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTENN 11–25 AUB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTENN 14–21 AUB neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTENN 18–18 AUB neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTENN 21–14 AUB neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTENN 25–11 AUB neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTENN 28–7 AUB neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTENN 32–4 AUB neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTENN 35–0 AUB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalAUB +14PKTENN +14TENN +28TENN +42margin →