AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 4:00 AM
Third Saturday in October
#12Away
Alabama
0-0 · AVR 74.0
30p
#17Home
Tennessee
0-0 · AVR 71.5
31p
ALA 49%51% TENN
Spread
TENN -0.5
Total
61
Moneyline
ALA+105TENN-105
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ALA advantageevenTENN advantage →
ALA throw
ALA QB #85ALA WR #15
TENN +15
ALA run
TENN +11
TENN throw
TENN QB #86TENN WR #10
ALA +10
TENN run
TENN +18

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when TENN runs
DeSean Bishop
vs
Yhonzae Pierre
RB · TENN
MLB · ALA
85.8
87.5
dead even
when TENN throws
Mike Matthews
vs
Bray Hubbard
X · TENN
CB1 · ALA
79.8
87.6
ALA +8
when ALA throws
Ryan Coleman-Williams
vs
Ty Redmond
X · ALA
CB1 · TENN
78.5
78.0
dead even
off the edge· hunting Phillips
Shamurad Umarov
vs
Jeremiah Beaman
LT · TENN
EDGE · ALA
81.0
73.4
TENN +8
over the middle
Ethan Davis
vs
Zabien Brown
TE · TENN
FS · ALA
66.4
83.7
ALA +17
when ALA runs
Daniel Hill
vs
Amare Campbell
RB · ALA
MLB · TENN
64.3
77.3
TENN +13

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Alabama
DBBray Hubbard
87.623/1427
LBYhonzae Pierre
87.513/878
DBKeon Sabb
84.845/1427
DBDijon Lee Jr.
83.956/1427
LBJah-Marien Latham
82.836/878
WRRyan Coleman-Williams
78.526/777

also out — Alabama running back (RB), Ezavier Crowell (RB), RB (RB), another Alabama RB (RB), unknown (RB), Alabama Freshman Cornerback (CB), top recruit (CB), 5-star defensive back (DB) +9 more

Tennessee
RBDeSean Bishop
85.85/514
WRMike Matthews
79.821/777
DBTy Redmond
78.0114/1427
DBQua Moss
77.8119/1427
LBAmare Campbell
77.387/878
WRBraylon Staley
75.532/777

also out — Jadais Richard (CB), EDGE Jaedon Harmon (EDGE), Jaedon Harmon (EDGE), Tennessee Football Starting Defender (S), Tennessee defensive back (DB), unknown (S), Farooq (S), Tennessee (S) +1 more

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Alabama
opponent
Tennessee
home-0.6
Texas A&M#8
-7.7away
home+9.8
South Carolina#29
+2.8away
away+3.5
LSU#20
+6.5home
away+18.4
Kentucky#67
+21.3home
home+12.7
Auburn#31
+10.7home
away+3.3
Vanderbilt#23
+1.3away

Projected margin

80% between -17 and 18
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTENN +0.595% interval: -23.4 to 24.480% interval: -16.9 to 17.8-17+18ALA wins 49%TENN wins 51%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TENN 32–32 ALATENN 28–56 ALA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTENN 32–53 ALA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTENN 35–49 ALA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTENN 39–46 ALA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTENN 42–42 ALA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTENN 46–39 ALA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTENN 49–35 ALA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTENN 53–32 ALA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTENN 56–28 ALA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTENN 25–53 ALA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTENN 28–49 ALA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTENN 32–46 ALA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTENN 35–42 ALA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTENN 39–39 ALA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTENN 42–35 ALA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTENN 46–32 ALA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTENN 49–28 ALA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTENN 53–25 ALA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTENN 21–49 ALA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTENN 25–46 ALA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTENN 28–42 ALA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTENN 32–39 ALA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTENN 35–35 ALA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTENN 39–32 ALA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTENN 42–28 ALA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTENN 46–25 ALA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTENN 49–21 ALA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTENN 18–46 ALA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTENN 21–42 ALA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTENN 25–39 ALA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTENN 28–35 ALA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTENN 32–32 ALA neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesTENN 35–28 ALA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTENN 39–25 ALA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTENN 42–21 ALA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTENN 46–18 ALA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTENN 14–42 ALA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTENN 18–39 ALA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTENN 21–35 ALA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTENN 25–32 ALA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTENN 28–28 ALA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTENN 32–25 ALA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTENN 35–21 ALA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTENN 39–18 ALA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTENN 42–14 ALA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTENN 11–39 ALA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTENN 14–35 ALA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTENN 18–32 ALA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTENN 21–28 ALA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTENN 25–25 ALA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTENN 28–21 ALA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTENN 32–18 ALA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTENN 35–14 ALA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTENN 39–11 ALA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTENN 7–35 ALA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTENN 11–32 ALA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTENN 14–28 ALA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTENN 18–25 ALA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTENN 21–21 ALA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTENN 25–18 ALA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTENN 28–14 ALA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTENN 32–11 ALA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTENN 35–7 ALA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes84777063564942totalALA +28ALA +14PKTENN +14TENN +28margin →