CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 3:30 PM ET
Third Saturday in October
Forecast win probability
ALA 62.5%37.5% TENN
Projected margin
ALA by 5.2
Projected total
61
80% outcome range
ALA 24 to TENN 13
Win probability
ALA 62.5%

Current team profiles

Alabama
Tennessee

When Alabama has the ball

Passing

TENN defense
Higher-ranked profile
ALA offense
#22
TENN defense
#3
EPA comparison
0.42
#22
-0.13
#3
Pass EPA

Rushing

ALA offense
Higher-ranked profile
ALA offense
#9
TENN defense
#73
EPA comparison
0.27
#9
0.05
#73
Rush EPA

Drive success

ALA offense
Higher-ranked profile
ALA offense
#15
TENN defense
#46
Success rates
50%
#15
38%
#46
Success rate
More metrics
0.33
#7
-0.08
#12
EPA / play
1.32
#25
1.06
#11
Explosiveness
16%
#94
22%
#6
Havoc

When Tennessee has the ball

Passing

ALA defense
Higher-ranked profile
ALA defense
#55
TENN offense
#98
EPA comparison
0.10
#55
0.12
#98
Pass EPA

Rushing

TENN offense
Higher-ranked profile
ALA defense
#8
TENN offense
#6
EPA comparison
-0.17
#8
0.29
#6
Rush EPA

Drive success

ALA defense
Higher-ranked profile
ALA defense
#30
TENN offense
#50
Success rates
35%
#30
45%
#50
Success rate
More metrics
-0.06
#17
0.20
#50
EPA / play
1.37
#122
1.21
#87
Explosiveness
20%
#22
16%
#98
Havoc

Current key players

Alabama
QBKeelon Russell
1414 yds · 11 TD · 2 INT
92.54/729
RBEJ Crowell
204 yds · 3 TD · 7.8 YPC
90.38/1044
LBLuke Metz
36 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
80.1
Coverage
84.7
Pressures
7
Pass-rush snaps
25
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
0
87.223/1796
TEMarshall Pritchett
7 rec · 148 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
73.8
Run blocking
74.2
Penalties
1
82.817/1017
WRNoah Rogers
3 rec · 55 yds · 0 TD
81.844/2069
LBDesmond Umeozulu
6 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
77.3
Coverage
62.2
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
30
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
78.798/1796
Availability reports · 2
  • Josh Ford · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Ford is nursing with a arm injury, and it is unclear if he will be active against Volunteers on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Aubrey Walker · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Walker is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Volunteers on Saturday, October 17th.

Tennessee
QBGeorge MacIntyre
148 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT
79.673/729
RBDeSean Bishop
540 yds · 7 TD · 6.1 YPC
82.751/1044
DBDejuan Lane
17 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
64.0
Coverage
85.8
Targets allowed
8
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
81
Passer rating allowed
67.2
Missed tackles
5
80.457/2969
LBJeremiah Telander
20 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
69.8
Coverage
86.1
Pressures
7
Pass-rush snaps
59
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
77.9121/1796
DBTy Redmond
18 tkl · 4 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
63.7
Coverage
78.9
Targets allowed
21
Rec allowed
11
Yards allowed
105
Passer rating allowed
66.6
Missed tackles
3
76.8132/2969
LBAmare Campbell
31 tkl · 4.0 TFL · 2.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
69.2
Coverage
70.0
Pressures
4
Pass-rush snaps
12
Missed tackles
6
Forced fumbles
0
72.9259/1796
Availability reports · 4
  • Wendell Moe Jr. · OGout · 2026-09-30

    Moe Jr has been shut down for the remainder of the season due to an undisclosed injury.

  • Jaedon Harmon · LBout · 2026-09-07

    Harmon has been shut down for the remainder of the season due to ACL tear.

  • Javin Gordon · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Gordon is dealing with a leg injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Crimson Tide on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Bennett Brady · LSQues. · 2026-10-11

    Brady is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will suit up against Crimson Tide on Saturday, October

Position units

Position-unit comparison

ALA
TENN
vs
Offense
92.5
#3 of 138
QB
79.6
#57 of 138
84.4
#12 of 138
RB
82.0
#23 of 138
76.3
#29 of 138
WR
69.8
#81 of 138
82.8
#17 of 138
TE
70.8
#60 of 138
71.7
#38 of 138
OL
71.9
#36 of 138
Defense
79.7
#17 of 138
DL
81.6
#10 of 138
81.5
#14 of 138
LB
74.0
#70 of 138
72.1
#69 of 138
DB
73.5
#50 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Alabama
opponent
Tennessee
H+31.0
SC#38
+6.8A
H+11.9
TA&M#28
-1.2A
A+28.0
UK#40
+15.5H
H+18.0
AUB#42
+10.0H
A+13.4
VAN#58
+5.5A
A+6.6
LSU#11
+4.1H