AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 4:00 AM
#8Away
Texas A&M
0-0 · AVR 76.5
29p
#12Home
Alabama
0-0 · AVR 74.0
28p
TA&M 52%48% ALA
Spread
TA&M -0.6
Total
57
Moneyline
TA&M-108ALA+108
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TA&M advantageevenALA advantage →
TA&M throw
TA&M WR #1TA&M protection #120
ALA +5
TA&M run
TA&M line #120TA&M backs #40
ALA +36
ALA throw
ALA QB #85ALA WR #15
TA&M +27
ALA run
TA&M +22

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when TA&M throws
Mario Craver
vs
Bray Hubbard
X · TA&M
CB1 · ALA
85.5
87.6
dead even
when TA&M runs
Rueben Owens II
vs
Yhonzae Pierre
RB · TA&M
MLB · ALA
74.1
87.5
ALA +13
when ALA throws
Ryan Coleman-Williams
vs
Marcus Ratcliffe
X · ALA
CB1 · TA&M
78.5
80.6
dead even
when ALA runs
Daniel Hill
vs
Daymion Sanford
RB · ALA
MLB · TA&M
64.3
82.7
TA&M +18
over the middle
Houston Thomas
vs
Zabien Brown
TE · TA&M
FS · ALA
57.9
83.7
ALA +26
over the middle
Kaleb Edwards
vs
Adam Graham
TE · ALA
FS · TA&M
59.1
70.8
TA&M +12

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Texas A&M
WRMario Craver
85.513/777
LBDaymion Sanford
82.739/878
SMarcus Ratcliffe
80.688/1427
QBMarcel Reed
80.221/308
LBRay Coney
78.869/878
CBRickey Gibson III
78.4108/1427

also out — Target After Missing, Former Texas A&M OL (OL), star safety (S), Chace Sims (DL), DT Sims, McGuire (OL), Myles (WR), Player 1 +3 more

Alabama
DBBray Hubbard
87.623/1427
LBYhonzae Pierre
87.513/878
DBKeon Sabb
84.845/1427
DBDijon Lee Jr.
83.956/1427
LBJah-Marien Latham
82.836/878
WRRyan Coleman-Williams
78.526/777

also out — Alabama running back (RB), Ezavier Crowell (RB), RB (RB), another Alabama RB (RB), unknown (RB), Alabama Freshman Cornerback (CB), top recruit (CB), 5-star defensive back (DB) +9 more

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Texas A&M
opponent
Alabama
home+7.7
Tennessee#17
-0.5away
home+26.5
Kentucky#67
+18.4away
away+6.7
LSU#20
+3.5away
away+8.0
South Carolina#29
+9.8home

Projected margin

80% between -18 and 17
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTA&M +0.695% interval: -24.5 to 23.380% interval: -18 to 16.7-18+17TA&M wins 52%ALA wins 48%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ALA 28–28 TA&MALA 25–53 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesALA 28–49 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesALA 32–46 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesALA 35–42 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesALA 39–39 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesALA 42–35 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesALA 46–32 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesALA 49–28 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesALA 53–25 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesALA 21–49 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesALA 25–46 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesALA 28–42 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesALA 32–39 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesALA 35–35 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesALA 39–32 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesALA 42–28 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesALA 46–25 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesALA 49–21 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesALA 18–46 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesALA 21–42 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesALA 25–39 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesALA 28–35 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesALA 32–32 TA&M neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesALA 35–28 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesALA 39–25 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesALA 42–21 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesALA 46–18 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesALA 14–42 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesALA 18–39 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesALA 21–35 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesALA 25–32 TA&M neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesALA 28–28 TA&M neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesALA 32–25 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesALA 35–21 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesALA 39–18 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesALA 42–14 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesALA 11–39 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesALA 14–35 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesALA 18–32 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesALA 21–28 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesALA 25–25 TA&M neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesALA 28–21 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesALA 32–18 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesALA 35–14 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesALA 39–11 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesALA 7–35 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesALA 11–32 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesALA 14–28 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesALA 18–25 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesALA 21–21 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesALA 25–18 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesALA 28–14 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesALA 32–11 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesALA 35–7 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesALA 4–32 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesALA 7–28 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesALA 11–25 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesALA 14–21 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesALA 18–18 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesALA 21–14 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesALA 25–11 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesALA 28–7 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesALA 32–4 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalTA&M +28TA&M +14PKALA +14ALA +28margin →