AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 4:00 PM
#20Away
LSU
0-0 · AVR 68.3
25p
#31Home
Auburn
0-0 · AVR 62.1
23p
LSU 54%46% AUB
Spread
LSU -1.6
Total
49
Moneyline
LSU-119AUB+119
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← LSU advantageevenAUB advantage →
LSU throw
LSU WR #5LSU protection #111
even
LSU run
LSU line #111LSU backs #60
AUB +57
AUB throw
AUB protection #51
LSU +9
AUB run
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when AUB throws
Keshaun Singleton
vs
DJ Pickett
X · AUB
CB1 · LSU
86.7
93.7
LSU +7
when LSU runs
Caden Durham
vs
Xavier Atkins
RB · LSU
MLB · AUB
61.0
93.4
AUB +32
off the edge· hunting Brown
Jacob Strand
vs
Princewill Umanmielen
LT · AUB
EDGE · LSU
53.1
99.9
LSU +47
when LSU throws
Tre' Brown
vs
Fred Gaskin III
X · LSU
CB1 · AUB
86.3
66.3
LSU +20
when AUB runs
Jeremiah Cobb
vs
TJ Dottery
RB · AUB
MLB · LSU
78.7
69.2
AUB +10
over the middle
Jonathan Echols
vs
Ty Benefield
TE · AUB
FS · LSU
67.1
79.0
LSU +12

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
LSU
CBDJ Pickettprobable
93.75/1427
CBPJ Woodland
88.818/1427
SDashawn Spears
87.324/1427
WRTre' Brown
86.311/777
WRWinston Watkins Jr.
71.444/777
LBTJ Dottery
69.2159/878

also out — projected offensive starter, Jamal Adams (CB), Former LSU football star, Decision Means Losing, Daniels Finally Speaks, Malik Nabers (WR)

Auburn
LBXavier Atkins
93.44/878
WRKeshaun Singleton
86.79/777
WRJeremiah Koger
83.116/777
QBByrum Brown
81.319/308
RBJeremiah Cobb
78.729/514
LBColeman Granberry
78.082/878

also out — Fly, Tai Buster (OL), tight end (TE), Auburn Linebacker Likely, Auburn edge rusher (DL), Auburn linebacker (LB), J.J. Faulk (EDGE), Auburn RB (RB) +3 more

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
LSU
opponent
Auburn
home+10.3
Mississippi State#45
+1.1away
home-3.5
Alabama#12
-12.7away
away-6.5
Tennessee#17
-10.7away
away-7.4
Ole Miss#14
-11.5away
away+4.8
Arkansas#40
+5.6home

Projected margin

80% between -19 and 16
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKLSU +1.695% interval: -25.6 to 22.380% interval: -19 to 15.7-19+16LSU wins 54%AUB wins 46%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ AUB 25–25 LSUAUB 21–49 LSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAUB 25–46 LSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAUB 28–42 LSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesAUB 32–39 LSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesAUB 35–35 LSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesAUB 39–32 LSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesAUB 42–28 LSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesAUB 46–25 LSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAUB 49–21 LSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesAUB 18–46 LSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAUB 21–42 LSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesAUB 25–39 LSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAUB 28–35 LSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesAUB 32–32 LSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesAUB 35–28 LSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesAUB 39–25 LSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesAUB 42–21 LSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesAUB 46–18 LSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAUB 14–42 LSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAUB 18–39 LSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesAUB 21–35 LSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesAUB 25–32 LSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesAUB 28–28 LSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesAUB 32–25 LSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesAUB 35–21 LSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesAUB 39–18 LSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesAUB 42–14 LSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAUB 11–39 LSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesAUB 14–35 LSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesAUB 18–32 LSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesAUB 21–28 LSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesAUB 25–25 LSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesAUB 28–21 LSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesAUB 32–18 LSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAUB 35–14 LSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesAUB 39–11 LSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAUB 7–35 LSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAUB 11–32 LSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesAUB 14–28 LSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesAUB 18–25 LSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesAUB 21–21 LSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesAUB 25–18 LSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesAUB 28–14 LSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesAUB 32–11 LSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesAUB 35–7 LSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAUB 4–32 LSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAUB 7–28 LSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesAUB 11–25 LSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesAUB 14–21 LSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesAUB 18–18 LSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesAUB 21–14 LSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesAUB 25–11 LSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesAUB 28–7 LSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAUB 32–4 LSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAUB 0–28 LSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAUB 4–25 LSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAUB 7–21 LSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesAUB 11–18 LSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesAUB 14–14 LSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesAUB 18–11 LSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAUB 21–7 LSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesAUB 25–4 LSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesAUB 28–0 LSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes70635649423528totalLSU +28LSU +14PKAUB +14AUB +28margin →