CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 12:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
LSU 58.8%41.3% AUB
Projected margin
LSU by 3.4
Projected total
51
80% outcome range
LSU 22 to AUB 15
Win probability
LSU 58.8%

Current team profiles

LSU
Auburn

When LSU has the ball

Passing

LSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
LSU offense
#24
AUB defense
#41
EPA comparison
0.40
#24
0.07
#41
Pass EPA

Rushing

LSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
LSU offense
#42
AUB defense
#73
EPA comparison
0.17
#42
0.05
#73
Rush EPA

Drive success

LSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
LSU offense
#14
AUB defense
#50
Success rates
50%
#14
38%
#50
Success rate
More metrics
0.26
#27
0.01
#44
EPA / play
1.24
#62
1.18
#45
Explosiveness
16%
#88
17%
#57
Havoc

When Auburn has the ball

Passing

LSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
LSU defense
#3
AUB offense
#119
EPA comparison
-0.13
#3
0.04
#119
Pass EPA

Rushing

LSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
LSU defense
#29
AUB offense
#39
EPA comparison
-0.06
#29
0.18
#39
Rush EPA

Drive success

LSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
LSU defense
#3
AUB offense
#86
Success rates
32%
#3
42%
#86
Success rate
More metrics
-0.10
#10
0.07
#98
EPA / play
1.21
#67
1.26
#55
Explosiveness
21%
#8
16%
#102
Havoc

Current key players

LSU
QBSam Leavitt
1220 yds · 8 TD · 7 INT
84.150/729
LBTJ Dottery
30 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
74.7
Coverage
90.5
Pressures
10
Pass-rush snaps
23
Missed tackles
3
Forced fumbles
2
90.211/1796
STamarcus Cooley
12 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
56.2
Coverage
90.6
Targets allowed
13
Rec allowed
7
Yards allowed
69
Passer rating allowed
29.5
Missed tackles
2
90.09/2969
LBTylen Singleton
8 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
85.8
Coverage
71.3
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
2
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
84.644/1796
WRCorey Barber Jr.
8 rec · 98 yds · 2 TD
77.090/2069
CBMichael Turner Jr.
4 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
57.0
Coverage
79.7
Targets allowed
3
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
6
Passer rating allowed
2.8
Missed tackles
1
76.0159/2969
Availability reports · 4
  • Phillip Wright III · WRout · 2026-09-21

    Wright III is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and he is likely to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Dashawn Spears · Sout · 2026-09-21

    Spears has been sidelined due to a torn ACL, and he is likely to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Trey'Dez Green · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Green is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will play against Bulldogs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Raycine Guillory Jr. · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Guillory Jr. is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Bulldogs on Saturday, October 17th.

Auburn
QBByrum Brown
1052 yds · 7 TD · 7 INT
83.056/729
LBMichael Matthews-Canty
2 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
78.3
Coverage
72.0
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
84.447/1796
RBOmar Mabson II
213 yds · 1 TD · 6.5 YPC
77.0133/1044
LBXavier Atkins
37 tkl · 7.5 TFL · 3.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
68.8
Coverage
55.6
Pressures
19
Pass-rush snaps
57
Missed tackles
10
Forced fumbles
0
75.1180/1796
SSylvester Smith-Reed
13 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
69.1
Coverage
72.2
Targets allowed
12
Rec allowed
7
Yards allowed
48
Passer rating allowed
32.6
Missed tackles
2
72.5302/2969
WRKeshaun Singleton
29 rec · 322 yds · 1 TD
71.2220/2069
Availability reports · 2
  • Nykahi Davenport · RBout · 2026-09-20

    Davenport is managing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no time table for his return.

  • Hunter Herring · TEQues. · 2026-09-20

    Herring is tending to an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will be available against Commodores on Saturday, September 26th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

LSU
AUB
vs
Offense
84.1
#44 of 138
QB
83.0
#49 of 138
73.9
#84 of 138
RB
73.9
#83 of 138
74.8
#34 of 138
WR
68.1
#106 of 138
72.7
#48 of 138
TE
63.5
#100 of 138
68.5
#63 of 138
OL
63.8
#105 of 138
Defense
78.6
#19 of 138
DL
69.2
#115 of 138
84.5
#6 of 138
LB
78.2
#35 of 138
76.8
#20 of 138
DB
66.7
#131 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

LSU
opponent
Auburn
H+10.0
MSST#35
-1.4A
H-6.6
ALA#3
-18.0A
A-4.1
TENN#21
-10.0A
A-8.0
MISS#14
-6.4A
A+14.0
ARK#71
+13.2H