CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 12:00 AM ET
Forecast win probability
OU 51.6%48.4% FLA
Projected margin
OU by 0.6
Projected total
52
80% outcome range
OU 19 to FLA 18
Win probability
OU 51.6%

Current team profiles

Oklahoma
Florida

When Oklahoma has the ball

Passing

OU offense
Higher-ranked profile
OU offense
#55
FLA defense
#98
EPA comparison
0.27
#55
0.25
#98
Pass EPA

Rushing

FLA defense
Higher-ranked profile
OU offense
#138
FLA defense
#63
EPA comparison
-0.24
#138
0.03
#63
Rush EPA

Drive success

FLA defense
Higher-ranked profile
OU offense
#119
FLA defense
#83
Success rates
38%
#119
42%
#83
Success rate
More metrics
-0.04
#129
0.09
#82
EPA / play
1.06
#132
1.25
#85
Explosiveness
17%
#114
18%
#30
Havoc

When Florida has the ball

Passing

OU defense
Higher-ranked profile
OU defense
#12
FLA offense
#19
EPA comparison
-0.07
#12
0.43
#19
Pass EPA

Rushing

OU defense
Higher-ranked profile
OU defense
#26
FLA offense
#35
EPA comparison
-0.08
#26
0.19
#35
Rush EPA

Drive success

OU defense
Higher-ranked profile
OU defense
#2
FLA offense
#30
Success rates
32%
#2
48%
#30
Success rate
More metrics
-0.16
#3
0.28
#22
EPA / play
1.27
#89
1.23
#71
Explosiveness
21%
#14
12%
#29
Havoc

Current key players

Oklahoma
QBWhitt Newbauer
6 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
65.3214/729
DBPeyton Bowen
17 tkl · 4 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
81.1
Coverage
83.7
Targets allowed
4
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
2
84.925/2969
LBDane Bathurst
5 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
76.9
Coverage
63.9
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
82.560/1796
TETrynae Washington
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
67.4
Run blocking
81.4
Penalties
0
79.229/1017
WRIsaiah Sategna III
20 rec · 267 yds · 2 TD
75.7115/2069
DBEli Bowen
12 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
89.3
Coverage
64.2
Targets allowed
21
Rec allowed
8
Yards allowed
124
Passer rating allowed
58.4
Missed tackles
1
70.5412/2969
Availability reports · 3
  • Trell Harris · WRout · 2026-09-15

    Harris sustained a back injury, and there is no timetable for return.

  • Jer'Michael Carter · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Carter is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Wildcats on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Jack Van Dorselaer · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Dorselaer is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will play against Wildcats on Saturday, October 17th.

Florida
QBAaron Philo
1114 yds · 8 TD · 2 INT
80.170/729
LBKJ Ford
3 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
96.1
Coverage
44.6
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
12
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
1
90.112/1796
WRJustin Williams
2 rec · 21 yds · 0 TD
89.49/2069
RBJadan Baugh
613 yds · 11 TD · 6.5 YPC
88.617/1044
WRVernell Brown III
17 rec · 271 yds · 2 TD
87.814/2069
TEMicah Jones
1 rec · 6 yds · 1 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
68.8
Run blocking
76.0
Penalties
0
83.715/1017
Availability reports · 6
  • Kelvin Jimenez · RBout · 2026-09-05

    Jimenez is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Davian Groce · WRout · 2026-09-07

    Groce is sidelined with a back injury, and there is no timetable for his return.

  • V. Brown III · WRQues. · 2026-10-05

    Brown III is nursing a knee injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will play against South Carolina on Saturday.

  • Eric Singleton Jr. · WRprobable · 2026-09-28

    Singleton Jr is dealing with an ankle injury, but he is expected to be active against Missouri on Saturday.

  • London Montgomery · RBprobable · 2026-10-09

    Montgomery is dealing with an undisclosed injury, but he is likely to suit up against the South Carolina on Sunday.

  • Bailey Stockton · WRprobable · 2026-10-02

    Stockton is dealing with a back injury, and he is likely to be available against Missouri on Saturday, 3rd October.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

OU
FLA
vs
Offense
65.3
#119 of 138
QB
80.1
#56 of 138
67.2
#134 of 138
RB
85.5
#9 of 138
68.7
#99 of 138
WR
84.5
#1 of 138
79.2
#27 of 138
TE
83.7
#15 of 138
73.3
#25 of 138
OL
73.7
#23 of 138
Defense
77.6
#30 of 138
DL
82.7
#5 of 138
73.7
#74 of 138
LB
81.7
#12 of 138
71.9
#72 of 138
DB
70.3
#91 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Oklahoma
opponent
Florida
H+8.6
SC#38
-19.0H
A-2.5
MIZ#15
-28.0A
H+2.9
MISS#14
+24.0H
A-28.0
UGA#6
-12.6N
N+3.0
TEX#7
-11.1A
H+12.0
UK#40
+3.4A