AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 5:00 AM
#11Away
Oklahoma
0-0 · AVR 74.3
26p
#25Home
Florida
0-0 · AVR 66.3
23p
OU 57%43% FLA
Spread
OU -2.6
Total
48
Moneyline
OU-133FLA+133
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← OU advantageevenFLA advantage →
OU throw
OU +9
OU run
FLA +25
FLA throw
FLA QB #101FLA WR #33
OU +44
FLA run
OU +6

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when FLA runs
Jadan Baugh
vs
Kip Lewis
RB · FLA
MLB · OU
80.9
92.3
OU +11
off the edge· hunting Mateer
Caleb Nitta
vs
Emmanuel Oyebadejo
LT · OU
EDGE · FLA
74.3
90.7
FLA +16
when FLA throws
Vernell Brown III
vs
Peyton Bowen
X · FLA
CB1 · OU
71.4
86.1
OU +15
over the middle
Lacota Dippre
vs
Reggie Powers III
TE · FLA
FS · OU
73.7
75.8
dead even
when OU runs
Lloyd Avant
vs
Myles Graham
RB · OU
MLB · FLA
62.3
86.1
FLA +24
when OU throws
Parker Livingstone
vs
Bryce Thornton
X · OU
CB1 · FLA
71.1
72.0
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Oklahoma
LBKip Lewis
92.36/878
LBOwen Heinecke
91.78/878
DBPeyton Bowen
86.134/1427
DBEli Bowenprobable
83.063/1427
DBCourtland Guillory
82.468/1427
QBJohn Mateerprobable
71.835/308

also out — Michael Fasusi, Jaren Kanak (TE), Oklahoma OL (OL), Maikkula (C), Jake Maikkula (OL)

Florida
LBMyles Graham
86.118/878
LBJayden Woods
82.837/878
RBJadan Baugh
80.921/514
TELacota Dippre
73.75/287
SBryce Thornton
72.0189/1427
WRVernell Brown III
71.445/777

also out — Graham Mertz

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Oklahoma
opponent
Florida
home+22.0
Kentucky#67
+11.9away
neutral-3.5
Texas#9
-11.2away
home+8.5
South Carolina#29
+3.3home
away+2.5
Missouri#24
-2.7away
home+2.3
Ole Miss#14
-2.8home
away-12.0
Georgia#3
-14.6neutral

Projected margin

80% between -20 and 15
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKOU +2.695% interval: -26.6 to 21.380% interval: -20 to 14.7-20+15OU wins 57%FLA wins 43%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ FLA 25–25 OUFLA 21–49 OU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFLA 25–46 OU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesFLA 28–42 OU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesFLA 32–39 OU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesFLA 35–35 OU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesFLA 39–32 OU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesFLA 42–28 OU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesFLA 46–25 OU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFLA 49–21 OU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesFLA 18–46 OU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFLA 21–42 OU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesFLA 25–39 OU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesFLA 28–35 OU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesFLA 32–32 OU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesFLA 35–28 OU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesFLA 39–25 OU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesFLA 42–21 OU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFLA 46–18 OU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFLA 14–42 OU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFLA 18–39 OU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesFLA 21–35 OU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesFLA 25–32 OU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesFLA 28–28 OU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesFLA 32–25 OU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesFLA 35–21 OU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesFLA 39–18 OU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFLA 42–14 OU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFLA 11–39 OU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFLA 14–35 OU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesFLA 18–32 OU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesFLA 21–28 OU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesFLA 25–25 OU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesFLA 28–21 OU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesFLA 32–18 OU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesFLA 35–14 OU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFLA 39–11 OU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFLA 7–35 OU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFLA 11–32 OU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesFLA 14–28 OU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesFLA 18–25 OU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesFLA 21–21 OU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesFLA 25–18 OU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesFLA 28–14 OU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesFLA 32–11 OU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFLA 35–7 OU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFLA 4–32 OU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFLA 7–28 OU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesFLA 11–25 OU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesFLA 14–21 OU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesFLA 18–18 OU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesFLA 21–14 OU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesFLA 25–11 OU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesFLA 28–7 OU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesFLA 32–4 OU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFLA 0–28 OU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFLA 4–25 OU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesFLA 7–21 OU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesFLA 11–18 OU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesFLA 14–14 OU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesFLA 18–11 OU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesFLA 21–7 OU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesFLA 25–4 OU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFLA 28–0 OU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes70635649423528totalOU +28OU +14PKFLA +14FLA +28margin →