AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 5:00 AM
#12Away
Alabama
0-0 · AVR 74.0
28p
#20Home
LSU
0-0 · AVR 68.3
24p
ALA 60%40% LSU
Spread
ALA -3.5
Total
52
Moneyline
ALA-150LSU+150
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ALA advantageevenLSU advantage →
ALA throw
ALA QB #85ALA WR #15
LSU +32
ALA run
LSU +11
LSU throw
LSU WR #5LSU protection #111
ALA +15
LSU run
LSU line #111LSU backs #60
ALA +39

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when LSU throws
Tre' Brown
vs
Bray Hubbard
X · LSU
CB1 · ALA
86.3
87.6
dead even
when ALA throws
Ryan Coleman-Williams
vs
DJ Pickett
X · ALA
CB1 · LSU
78.5
93.7
LSU +15
when LSU runs
Caden Durham
vs
Yhonzae Pierre
RB · LSU
MLB · ALA
61.0
87.5
ALA +26
over the middle
Trey'Dez Green
vs
Zabien Brown
TE · LSU
FS · ALA
61.1
83.7
ALA +23
over the middle
Kaleb Edwards
vs
Ty Benefield
TE · ALA
FS · LSU
59.1
79.0
LSU +20
when ALA runs
Daniel Hill
vs
TJ Dottery
RB · ALA
MLB · LSU
64.3
69.2
LSU +5

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Alabama
DBBray Hubbard
87.623/1427
LBYhonzae Pierre
87.513/878
DBKeon Sabb
84.845/1427
DBDijon Lee Jr.
83.956/1427
LBJah-Marien Latham
82.836/878
WRRyan Coleman-Williams
78.526/777

also out — Alabama running back (RB), Ezavier Crowell (RB), RB (RB), another Alabama RB (RB), unknown (RB), Alabama Freshman Cornerback (CB), top recruit (CB), 5-star defensive back (DB) +9 more

LSU
CBDJ Pickettprobable
93.75/1427
CBPJ Woodland
88.818/1427
SDashawn Spears
87.324/1427
WRTre' Brown
86.311/777
WRWinston Watkins Jr.
71.444/777
LBTJ Dottery
69.2159/878

also out — projected offensive starter, Jamal Adams (CB), Former LSU football star, Decision Means Losing, Daniels Finally Speaks, Malik Nabers (WR)

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Alabama
opponent
LSU
home+12.7
Auburn#31
+1.6away
home-0.6
Texas A&M#8
-6.7home
away+18.4
Kentucky#67
+12.3away
away-0.5
Tennessee#17
-6.5away
away+11.3
Mississippi State#45
+10.3home

Projected margin

80% between -21 and 14
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKALA +3.595% interval: -27.5 to 20.480% interval: -20.9 to 13.8-21+14ALA wins 60%LSU wins 40%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ALA 28–21 LSULSU 21–49 ALA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesLSU 25–46 ALA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesLSU 28–42 ALA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesLSU 32–39 ALA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesLSU 35–35 ALA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesLSU 39–32 ALA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesLSU 42–28 ALA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesLSU 46–25 ALA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesLSU 49–21 ALA neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesLSU 18–46 ALA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLSU 21–42 ALA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesLSU 25–39 ALA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesLSU 28–35 ALA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesLSU 32–32 ALA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesLSU 35–28 ALA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesLSU 39–25 ALA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesLSU 42–21 ALA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLSU 46–18 ALA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLSU 14–42 ALA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLSU 18–39 ALA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLSU 21–35 ALA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesLSU 25–32 ALA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesLSU 28–28 ALA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesLSU 32–25 ALA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesLSU 35–21 ALA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLSU 39–18 ALA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLSU 42–14 ALA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLSU 11–39 ALA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLSU 14–35 ALA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLSU 18–32 ALA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesLSU 21–28 ALA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesLSU 25–25 ALA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesLSU 28–21 ALA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesLSU 32–18 ALA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLSU 35–14 ALA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLSU 39–11 ALA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLSU 7–35 ALA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLSU 11–32 ALA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesLSU 14–28 ALA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesLSU 18–25 ALA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesLSU 21–21 ALA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesLSU 25–18 ALA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesLSU 28–14 ALA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesLSU 32–11 ALA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLSU 35–7 ALA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLSU 4–32 ALA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesLSU 7–28 ALA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesLSU 11–25 ALA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesLSU 14–21 ALA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesLSU 18–18 ALA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesLSU 21–14 ALA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesLSU 25–11 ALA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesLSU 28–7 ALA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesLSU 32–4 ALA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLSU 0–28 ALA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLSU 4–25 ALA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesLSU 7–21 ALA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesLSU 11–18 ALA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesLSU 14–14 ALA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesLSU 18–11 ALA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesLSU 21–7 ALA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesLSU 25–4 ALA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLSU 28–0 ALA neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes70635649423528totalALA +28ALA +14PKLSU +14LSU +28margin →