AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 5:00 AM
#8Away
Texas A&M
0-0 · AVR 76.5
27p
#11Home
Oklahoma
0-0 · AVR 74.3
26p
TA&M 56%44% OU
Spread
TA&M -2.0
Total
53
Moneyline
TA&M-129OU+129
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TA&M advantageevenOU advantage →
TA&M throw
TA&M WR #1TA&M protection #120
OU +22
TA&M run
TA&M line #120TA&M backs #40
OU +61
OU throw
TA&M +12
OU run
TA&M +26

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when TA&M throws
Mario Craver
vs
Peyton Bowen
X · TA&M
CB1 · OU
85.5
86.1
dead even
when TA&M runs
Rueben Owens II
vs
Kip Lewis
RB · TA&M
MLB · OU
74.1
92.3
OU +18
off the edge· hunting Mateer
Caleb Nitta
vs
Ryan Henderson
LT · OU
EDGE · TA&M
74.3
88.3
TA&M +14
when OU throws
Parker Livingstone
vs
Marcus Ratcliffe
X · OU
CB1 · TA&M
71.1
80.6
TA&M +9
when OU runs
Lloyd Avant
vs
Daymion Sanford
RB · OU
MLB · TA&M
62.3
82.7
TA&M +20
over the middle
Houston Thomas
vs
Reggie Powers III
TE · TA&M
FS · OU
57.9
75.8
OU +18

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Texas A&M
WRMario Craver
85.513/777
LBDaymion Sanford
82.739/878
SMarcus Ratcliffe
80.688/1427
QBMarcel Reed
80.221/308
LBRay Coney
78.869/878
CBRickey Gibson III
78.4108/1427

also out — Target After Missing, Former Texas A&M OL (OL), star safety (S), Chace Sims (DL), DT Sims, McGuire (OL), Myles (WR), Player 1 +3 more

Oklahoma
LBKip Lewis
92.36/878
LBOwen Heinecke
91.78/878
DBPeyton Bowen
86.134/1427
DBEli Bowenprobable
83.063/1427
DBCourtland Guillory
82.468/1427
QBJohn Mateerprobable
71.835/308

also out — Michael Fasusi, Jaren Kanak (TE), Oklahoma OL (OL), Maikkula (C), Jake Maikkula (OL)

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Texas A&M
opponent
Oklahoma
home+3.5
Texas#9
-3.5neutral
home+26.5
Kentucky#67
+22.0home
away+7.0
Missouri#24
+2.5away
away+8.0
South Carolina#29
+8.5home

Projected margin

80% between -19 and 15
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTA&M +2.095% interval: -25.9 to 21.980% interval: -19.4 to 15.4-19+15TA&M wins 56%OU wins 44%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ OU 28–28 TA&MOU 25–53 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOU 28–49 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesOU 32–46 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesOU 35–42 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesOU 39–39 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesOU 42–35 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesOU 46–32 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesOU 49–28 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOU 53–25 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesOU 21–49 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOU 25–46 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesOU 28–42 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesOU 32–39 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesOU 35–35 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesOU 39–32 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesOU 42–28 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesOU 46–25 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesOU 49–21 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesOU 18–46 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOU 21–42 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesOU 25–39 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesOU 28–35 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesOU 32–32 TA&M neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesOU 35–28 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesOU 39–25 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesOU 42–21 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesOU 46–18 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOU 14–42 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesOU 18–39 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesOU 21–35 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesOU 25–32 TA&M neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesOU 28–28 TA&M neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesOU 32–25 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesOU 35–21 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesOU 39–18 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesOU 42–14 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOU 11–39 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesOU 14–35 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesOU 18–32 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesOU 21–28 TA&M neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesOU 25–25 TA&M neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesOU 28–21 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesOU 32–18 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesOU 35–14 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesOU 39–11 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOU 7–35 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOU 11–32 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesOU 14–28 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesOU 18–25 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesOU 21–21 TA&M neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesOU 25–18 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesOU 28–14 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesOU 32–11 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesOU 35–7 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOU 4–32 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOU 7–28 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesOU 11–25 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesOU 14–21 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesOU 18–18 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesOU 21–14 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesOU 25–11 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesOU 28–7 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesOU 32–4 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalTA&M +28TA&M +14PKOU +14OU +28margin →