AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 5:00 AM
#20Away
LSU
0-0 · AVR 68.3
26p
#17Home
Tennessee
0-0 · AVR 71.5
32p
LSU 33%67% TENN
Spread
TENN -6.5
Total
58
Moneyline
LSU+202TENN-202
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← LSU advantageevenTENN advantage →
LSU throw
LSU WR #5LSU protection #111
TENN +13
LSU run
LSU line #111LSU backs #60
TENN +44
TENN throw
TENN QB #86TENN WR #10
LSU +26
TENN run
TENN +12

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Phillips
Shamurad Umarov
vs
Princewill Umanmielen
LT · TENN
EDGE · LSU
81.0
99.9
LSU +19
when TENN throws
Mike Matthews
vs
DJ Pickett
X · TENN
CB1 · LSU
79.8
93.7
LSU +14
when LSU throws
Tre' Brown
vs
Ty Redmond
X · LSU
CB1 · TENN
86.3
78.0
LSU +8
when TENN runs
DeSean Bishop
vs
TJ Dottery
RB · TENN
MLB · LSU
85.8
69.2
TENN +17
over the middle
Ethan Davis
vs
Ty Benefield
TE · TENN
FS · LSU
66.4
79.0
LSU +13
when LSU runs
Caden Durham
vs
Amare Campbell
RB · LSU
MLB · TENN
61.0
77.3
TENN +16

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
LSU
CBDJ Pickettprobable
93.75/1427
CBPJ Woodland
88.818/1427
SDashawn Spears
87.324/1427
WRTre' Brown
86.311/777
WRWinston Watkins Jr.
71.444/777
LBTJ Dottery
69.2159/878

also out — projected offensive starter, Jamal Adams (CB), Former LSU football star, Decision Means Losing, Daniels Finally Speaks, Malik Nabers (WR)

Tennessee
RBDeSean Bishop
85.85/514
WRMike Matthews
79.821/777
DBTy Redmond
78.0114/1427
DBQua Moss
77.8119/1427
LBAmare Campbell
77.387/878
WRBraylon Staley
75.532/777

also out — Jadais Richard (CB), EDGE Jaedon Harmon (EDGE), Jaedon Harmon (EDGE), Tennessee Football Starting Defender (S), Tennessee defensive back (DB), unknown (S), Farooq (S), Tennessee (S) +1 more

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
LSU
opponent
Tennessee
away+1.6
Auburn#31
+10.7home
away+12.3
Kentucky#67
+21.3home
away+4.8
Arkansas#40
+8.8away
home-3.5
Alabama#12
+0.5home
home-5.7
Texas#9
-1.7home
home-6.7
Texas A&M#8
-7.7away

Projected margin

80% between -11 and 24
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTENN +6.595% interval: -17.4 to 30.480% interval: -10.9 to 23.9-11+24LSU wins 33%TENN wins 67%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TENN 32–25 LSUTENN 28–49 LSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTENN 32–46 LSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTENN 35–42 LSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTENN 39–39 LSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTENN 42–35 LSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTENN 46–32 LSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTENN 49–28 LSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTENN 53–25 LSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTENN 56–21 LSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTENN 25–46 LSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTENN 28–42 LSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTENN 32–39 LSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTENN 35–35 LSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTENN 39–32 LSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTENN 42–28 LSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTENN 46–25 LSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTENN 49–21 LSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTENN 53–18 LSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTENN 21–42 LSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTENN 25–39 LSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTENN 28–35 LSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTENN 32–32 LSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTENN 35–28 LSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTENN 39–25 LSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTENN 42–21 LSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTENN 46–18 LSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTENN 49–14 LSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTENN 18–39 LSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTENN 21–35 LSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTENN 25–32 LSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTENN 28–28 LSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTENN 32–25 LSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesTENN 35–21 LSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTENN 39–18 LSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTENN 42–14 LSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTENN 46–11 LSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTENN 14–35 LSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTENN 18–32 LSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTENN 21–28 LSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTENN 25–25 LSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTENN 28–21 LSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTENN 32–18 LSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTENN 35–14 LSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTENN 39–11 LSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTENN 42–7 LSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTENN 11–32 LSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTENN 14–28 LSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTENN 18–25 LSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTENN 21–21 LSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTENN 25–18 LSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTENN 28–14 LSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTENN 32–11 LSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTENN 35–7 LSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTENN 39–4 LSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTENN 7–28 LSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTENN 11–25 LSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTENN 14–21 LSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTENN 18–18 LSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTENN 21–14 LSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTENN 25–11 LSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTENN 28–7 LSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTENN 32–4 LSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTENN 35–0 LSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalLSU +21LSU +7TENN +7TENN +21TENN +35margin →