CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 12:00 AM ET
Forecast win probability
LSU 39.8%60.2% TENN
Projected margin
TENN by 4.1
Projected total
57
80% outcome range
LSU 15 to TENN 23
Win probability
TENN 60.2%

Current team profiles

LSU
Tennessee

When LSU has the ball

Passing

TENN defense
Higher-ranked profile
LSU offense
#24
TENN defense
#3
EPA comparison
0.40
#24
-0.13
#3
Pass EPA

Rushing

LSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
LSU offense
#42
TENN defense
#73
EPA comparison
0.17
#42
0.05
#73
Rush EPA

Drive success

LSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
LSU offense
#14
TENN defense
#46
Success rates
50%
#14
38%
#46
Success rate
More metrics
0.26
#27
-0.08
#12
EPA / play
1.24
#62
1.06
#11
Explosiveness
16%
#88
22%
#6
Havoc

When Tennessee has the ball

Passing

LSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
LSU defense
#3
TENN offense
#98
EPA comparison
-0.13
#3
0.12
#98
Pass EPA

Rushing

TENN offense
Higher-ranked profile
LSU defense
#29
TENN offense
#6
EPA comparison
-0.06
#29
0.29
#6
Rush EPA

Drive success

LSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
LSU defense
#3
TENN offense
#50
Success rates
32%
#3
45%
#50
Success rate
More metrics
-0.10
#10
0.20
#50
EPA / play
1.21
#67
1.21
#87
Explosiveness
21%
#8
16%
#98
Havoc

Current key players

LSU
QBSam Leavitt
1220 yds · 8 TD · 7 INT
84.150/729
LBTJ Dottery
30 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
74.7
Coverage
90.5
Pressures
10
Pass-rush snaps
23
Missed tackles
3
Forced fumbles
2
90.211/1796
STamarcus Cooley
12 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
56.2
Coverage
90.6
Targets allowed
13
Rec allowed
7
Yards allowed
69
Passer rating allowed
29.5
Missed tackles
2
90.09/2969
LBTylen Singleton
8 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
85.8
Coverage
71.3
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
2
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
84.644/1796
WRCorey Barber Jr.
8 rec · 98 yds · 2 TD
77.090/2069
CBMichael Turner Jr.
4 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
57.0
Coverage
79.7
Targets allowed
3
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
6
Passer rating allowed
2.8
Missed tackles
1
76.0159/2969
Availability reports · 4
  • Phillip Wright III · WRout · 2026-09-21

    Wright III is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and he is likely to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Dashawn Spears · Sout · 2026-09-21

    Spears has been sidelined due to a torn ACL, and he is likely to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Trey'Dez Green · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Green is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will play against Bulldogs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Raycine Guillory Jr. · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Guillory Jr. is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Bulldogs on Saturday, October 17th.

Tennessee
QBGeorge MacIntyre
148 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT
79.673/729
RBDeSean Bishop
540 yds · 7 TD · 6.1 YPC
82.751/1044
DBDejuan Lane
17 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
64.0
Coverage
85.8
Targets allowed
8
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
81
Passer rating allowed
67.2
Missed tackles
5
80.457/2969
LBJeremiah Telander
20 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
69.8
Coverage
86.1
Pressures
7
Pass-rush snaps
59
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
77.9121/1796
DBTy Redmond
18 tkl · 4 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
63.7
Coverage
78.9
Targets allowed
21
Rec allowed
11
Yards allowed
105
Passer rating allowed
66.6
Missed tackles
3
76.8132/2969
LBAmare Campbell
31 tkl · 4.0 TFL · 2.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
69.2
Coverage
70.0
Pressures
4
Pass-rush snaps
12
Missed tackles
6
Forced fumbles
0
72.9259/1796
Availability reports · 4
  • Wendell Moe Jr. · OGout · 2026-09-30

    Moe Jr has been shut down for the remainder of the season due to an undisclosed injury.

  • Jaedon Harmon · LBout · 2026-09-07

    Harmon has been shut down for the remainder of the season due to ACL tear.

  • Javin Gordon · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Gordon is dealing with a leg injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Crimson Tide on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Bennett Brady · LSQues. · 2026-10-11

    Brady is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will suit up against Crimson Tide on Saturday, October

Position units

Position-unit comparison

LSU
TENN
vs
Offense
84.1
#44 of 138
QB
79.6
#57 of 138
73.9
#84 of 138
RB
82.0
#23 of 138
74.8
#34 of 138
WR
69.8
#81 of 138
72.7
#48 of 138
TE
70.8
#60 of 138
68.5
#63 of 138
OL
71.9
#36 of 138
Defense
78.6
#19 of 138
DL
81.6
#10 of 138
84.5
#6 of 138
LB
74.0
#70 of 138
76.8
#20 of 138
DB
73.5
#50 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

LSU
opponent
Tennessee
H+29.0
TA&M#28
-1.2A
A-1.0
UK#40
+15.5H
A+14.0
ARK#71
+7.0A
A+3.4
AUB#42
+10.0H
H-0.4
TEX#7
-3.0H
H-6.6
ALA#3
-5.2H