CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 9:30 PM ET
#126Away
Northern Arizona
0-0 · AVR 49.1
7
Final
#28Home
Arizona
0-0 · AVR 64.7
35
Forecast win probability
NAU 1.1%98.9% ARIZ
Projected margin
ARIZ by 36.7
Projected total
56
80% outcome range
ARIZ 16 to ARIZ 57
Win probability
ARIZ 98.9%
FinalNAU 7 · ARIZ 35model had +36.7, off by 8.7

Current team profiles

Northern Arizona
Arizona

When Northern Arizona has the ball

Passing

No comparison
NAU offense
—
ARIZ defense
#17
EPA comparison
—
-0.01
#17
Pass EPA

Rushing

No comparison
NAU offense
—
ARIZ defense
#47
EPA comparison
—
0.00
#47
Rush EPA

Drive success

No comparison
NAU offense
#13
ARIZ defense
#27
Success rates
49%
#13
35%
#27
Success rate
More metrics
0.19
#27
-0.04
#28
EPA / play
0.23
#22
1.42
#131
Explosiveness
—
16%
#63
Havoc

When Arizona has the ball

Passing

No comparison
NAU defense
—
ARIZ offense
#28
EPA comparison
—
0.39
#28
Pass EPA

Rushing

No comparison
NAU defense
—
ARIZ offense
#61
EPA comparison
—
0.13
#61
Rush EPA

Drive success

No comparison
NAU defense
#124
ARIZ offense
#21
Success rates
50%
#124
49%
#21
Success rate
More metrics
0.15
#86
0.24
#32
EPA / play
0.24
#116
1.22
#77
Explosiveness
—
14%
#52
Havoc

Current key players

Northern Arizona
QBTy Pennington
1299 yds · 9 TD · 3 INT
75.566/370
RBKenveon Stone
303 yds · 6 TD · 7.2 YPC
84.911/631
DLNikhil Webb-Walker
— tkl · — TFL · — sk
Player detail
Run defense
63.3
Pressures
6
Pass-rush snaps
53
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
1
80.139/1549
LBJaiden Letua
31 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
69.9
Coverage
76.9
Pressures
7
Pass-rush snaps
26
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
1
77.467/1054
RBQuran Gossett
393 yds · 3 TD · 4.4 YPC
76.172/631
DBIsaiah Sensabaugh
6 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
77.4
Coverage
66.8
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
8
Passer rating allowed
100.0
Missed tackles
0
73.1226/1765
Arizona
QBNoah Fifita
1398 yds · 13 TD · 3 INT
83.452/729
LBDash Fifita
5 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
56.6
Coverage
71.5
Pressures
6
Pass-rush snaps
22
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
84.743/1796
CBJay'Vion Cole
17 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
69.0
Coverage
76.6
Targets allowed
27
Rec allowed
14
Yards allowed
105
Passer rating allowed
73.8
Missed tackles
2
78.390/2969
WRGiovanni Richardson
15 rec · 170 yds · 0 TD
77.089/2069
WRTre Spivey
22 rec · 314 yds · 4 TD
76.1107/2069
RBIsmail Mahdi
72 yds · 0 TD · 6.0 YPC
74.7180/1044
Availability reports · 7
  • Tre Spivey · WRout · 2026-10-04

    Spivey has been out of commission due to ankle injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Daylen Austin · Sout · 2026-09-25

    Austin has been shut down for the remainder of the season due to an undisclosed injury.

  • Giovanni Richardson · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Richardson is managing with an hamstring injury, and it is undetermined if he will face Iowa State on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Cole Rusk · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Rusk is laid up with an lower leg injury, and it is unknown if he will face Iowa State on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Cornelius Warren III · RBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Warren III is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Iowa State on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Max Harris · LBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Harris is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will face Iowa State on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Scotty Brennan · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Brennan is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Iowa State on Saturday, October 24th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

NAU
ARIZ
vs
Offense
75.5
#51 of 125
QB
83.4
#46 of 138
80.5
#10 of 126
RB
74.2
#80 of 138
65.1
#103 of 126
WR
74.4
#39 of 138
69.9
#33 of 124
TE
63.4
#101 of 138
64.0
#66 of 125
OL
75.2
#17 of 138
Defense
70.8
#63 of 126
DL
72.0
#86 of 138
73.2
#44 of 126
LB
74.8
#61 of 138
72.1
#55 of 126
DB
70.9
#84 of 138
Common opponents