AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 4:00 PM
#2Away
Oregon
0-0 · AVR 85.1
46p
#97Home
Oklahoma State
0-0 · AVR 40.7
11p
ORE 99%1% OKST
Spread
ORE -35.3
Total
57
Moneyline
ORE—OKST—
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ORE advantageevenOKST advantage →
ORE throw
ORE +22
ORE run
ORE +33
OKST throw
OKST protection #77
even
OKST run
OKST backs #26ORE linebackers #1
ORE +18

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when OKST runs
Caleb Hawkins
vs
Teitum Tuioti
RB · OKST
MLB · ORE
88.3
91.9
ORE +4
off the edge· hunting Mestemaker
Johnny Dickson III
vs
A'Mauri Washington
LT · OKST
EDGE · ORE
90.8
81.6
OKST +9
when OKST throws
Wyatt Young
vs
Brandon Finney Jr.
X · OKST
CB1 · ORE
79.7
88.9
ORE +9
off the edge· hunting Moore
Iapani Laloulu
vs
Keviyan Huddleston
LT · ORE
EDGE · OKST
79.3
79.1
dead even
when ORE runs
Jordon Davison
vs
Ethan Wesloski
RB · ORE
MLB · OKST
79.1
76.0
ORE +3
over the middle
Jamari Johnson
vs
Mo Horn
TE · ORE
FS · OKST
84.5
63.9
ORE +21

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Oregon
LBTeitum Tuioti
91.97/878
LBMatayo Uiagalelei
90.610/878
DBBrandon Finney Jr.
88.917/1427
TEJamari Johnson
84.51/287
DBPeyton Woodyard
81.377/1427
QBDante Moorequestionable
79.922/308

also out — Surprise Player Standing, Brayden Platt (LB), J. Davison (RB), Tony Cumberland

Oklahoma State
RBCaleb Hawkins
88.32/514
QBDrew Mestemaker
86.39/308
WRWyatt Young
79.722/777
LBEthan Wesloski
76.095/878
CBKollin Lewis
68.8265/1427
SChristian Bodnar
68.1279/1427

Projected margin

80% between -53 and -18
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKORE +35.395% interval: -59.2 to -11.480% interval: -52.7 to -17.9-53-18ORE wins 99%OKST wins 1%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ORE 46–11 OKSTOKST 7–70 ORE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOKST 11–67 ORE neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesOKST 14–63 ORE neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesOKST 18–60 ORE neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesOKST 21–56 ORE neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesOKST 25–53 ORE neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesOKST 28–49 ORE neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesOKST 32–46 ORE neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesOKST 35–42 ORE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOKST 4–67 ORE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOKST 7–63 ORE neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesOKST 11–60 ORE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesOKST 14–56 ORE neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesOKST 18–53 ORE neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesOKST 21–49 ORE neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesOKST 25–46 ORE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesOKST 28–42 ORE neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesOKST 32–39 ORE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOKST 0–63 ORE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOKST 4–60 ORE neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesOKST 7–56 ORE neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesOKST 11–53 ORE neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesOKST 14–49 ORE neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesOKST 18–46 ORE neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesOKST 21–42 ORE neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesOKST 25–39 ORE neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesOKST 28–35 ORE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)OKST 0–56 ORE neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesOKST 4–53 ORE neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesOKST 7–49 ORE neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesOKST 11–46 ORE neighborhood · ~3.7% of outcomesOKST 14–42 ORE neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesOKST 18–39 ORE neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesOKST 21–35 ORE neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesOKST 25–32 ORE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)OKST 0–49 ORE neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesOKST 4–46 ORE neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesOKST 7–42 ORE neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesOKST 11–39 ORE neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesOKST 14–35 ORE neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesOKST 18–32 ORE neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesOKST 21–28 ORE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)OKST 0–42 ORE neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesOKST 4–39 ORE neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesOKST 7–35 ORE neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesOKST 11–32 ORE neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesOKST 14–28 ORE neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesOKST 18–25 ORE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)OKST 0–35 ORE neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesOKST 4–32 ORE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesOKST 7–28 ORE neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesOKST 11–25 ORE neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesOKST 14–21 ORE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalORE +63ORE +49ORE +35ORE +21ORE +7margin →