CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 10:30 PM ET
#137Away
Hawai'i
1-4 · AVR 47.9
12
Final
#59Home
Arizona State
2-2 · AVR 61.8
30
Forecast win probability
HAW 13.2%86.8% ASU
Projected margin
ASU by 17.5
Projected total
50
80% outcome range
HAW 3 to ASU 38
Win probability
ASU 86.8%
FinalHAW 12 · ASU 30model had +17.5, off by 0.5

Current team profiles

Hawai'i
Arizona State

When Hawai'i has the ball

Passing

ASU defense
Higher-ranked profile
HAW offense
#114
ASU defense
#65
EPA comparison
0.07
#114
0.12
#65
Pass EPA

Rushing

ASU defense
Higher-ranked profile
HAW offense
#116
ASU defense
#84
EPA comparison
-0.02
#116
0.07
#84
Rush EPA

Drive success

ASU defense
Higher-ranked profile
HAW offense
#115
ASU defense
#49
Success rates
39%
#115
38%
#49
Success rate
More metrics
0.02
#118
0.09
#87
EPA / play
1.13
#118
1.31
#105
Explosiveness
17%
#112
15%
#90
Havoc

When Arizona State has the ball

Passing

ASU offense
Higher-ranked profile
HAW defense
#89
ASU offense
#84
EPA comparison
0.20
#89
0.16
#84
Pass EPA

Rushing

ASU offense
Higher-ranked profile
HAW defense
#128
ASU offense
#88
EPA comparison
0.21
#128
0.06
#88
Rush EPA

Drive success

ASU offense
Higher-ranked profile
HAW defense
#125
ASU offense
#67
Success rates
46%
#125
44%
#67
Success rate
More metrics
0.22
#125
0.07
#98
EPA / play
1.17
#41
1.21
#86
Explosiveness
13%
#109
16%
#88
Havoc

Current key players

Hawai'i
QBMicah Alejado
1361 yds · 4 TD · 3 INT
60.9261/729
LBJulian Smith
5 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 2.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
68.1
Coverage
63.5
Pressures
4
Pass-rush snaps
5
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
81.266/1796
LBMatteus Ioane
7 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.5 sk
Player detail
Run defense
69.7
Coverage
81.5
Pressures
2
Pass-rush snaps
5
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
1
80.082/1796
RBDeVon Rice
276 yds · 3 TD · 4.7 YPC
77.3127/1044
WRTama Uiliata
27 rec · 245 yds · 1 TD
76.5101/2069
DBJeremiah Hughes
11 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
73.0
Coverage
73.6
Targets allowed
11
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
64
Passer rating allowed
71.8
Missed tackles
2
74.4213/2969
Availability reports · 7
  • Robert Haynes IV · WRout · 2026-09-03

    Haynes IV is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Pofele Ashlock · WRout · 2026-10-05

    Ashlock is nursing an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an extended period.

  • Carson Brown · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Brown is dealing with a shoulder injury, and it has yet to be established if he will play against Lobos on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Tre' Griffiths · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Griffiths is dealing with an undisclosed injury and it is unclear if he will play against Lobos on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Anthony Hickman · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Hickman is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be active against Lobos on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Isaac Jaramilla-Phe · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Jaramilla-Phe is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will play against Lobos on Saturday, October 17t

  • Oakie Salave'a · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Salave'a is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will kit up against Lobos on Saturday, October 17th.

Arizona State
QBCutter Boley
1040 yds · 10 TD · 3 INT
78.286/729
WRReed Harris
26 rec · 499 yds · 5 TD
88.012/2069
LBIsaiah Iosefa
2 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
70.8
Coverage
71.1
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
82.361/1796
RBDemarius Robinson
27 yds · 0 TD · 6.8 YPC
80.571/1044
DBCaleb Chester
9 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
73.0
Coverage
77.8
Targets allowed
7
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
34
Passer rating allowed
86.9
Missed tackles
1
79.176/2969
DBLyrik Rawls
11 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
72.5
Coverage
79.6
Targets allowed
9
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
87
Passer rating allowed
95.4
Missed tackles
2
75.9162/2969
Availability reports · 6
  • Lyrik Rawls · CBout · 2026-10-07

    Rawls is managing with a leg injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

  • Khamari Anderson · TEout · 2026-09-21

    Anderson is sidelined with a leg injury, and it is anticipated that he will miss the remainder of the season.

  • Wade Helton · OGout · 2026-09-18

    Helton is sidelined with a leg injury, and he will miss an extended period.

  • Zyrus Fiaseu · LBout · 2026-08-25

    Fiaseu is sidelined with a knee injury, and he is projected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Grayson Rigdon · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Rigdon is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be active against the Raiders on Saturday, October

  • Harry Hassmann · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Hassmann is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against the Raiders on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

HAW
ASU
vs
Offense
60.9
#129 of 138
QB
78.2
#67 of 138
75.5
#69 of 138
RB
78.6
#43 of 138
70.1
#78 of 138
WR
72.8
#51 of 138
72.7
#46 of 138
TE
60.5
#114 of 138
58.5
#137 of 138
OL
70.2
#52 of 138
Defense
72.8
#73 of 138
DL
76.2
#44 of 138
78.9
#27 of 138
LB
72.0
#88 of 138
68.5
#115 of 138
DB
73.3
#53 of 138
Common opponents