AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 4:00 AM
#90Away
Hawai'i
0-0 · AVR 43.3
21p
#43Home
Arizona State
0-0 · AVR 57.5
33p
HAW 22%78% ASU
Spread
ASU -11.2
Total
54
Moneyline
HAW+350ASU-350
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← HAW advantageevenASU advantage →
HAW throw
HAW protection #102
ASU +26
HAW run
ASU +31
ASU throw
ASU WR #16ASU protection #115
ASU +5
ASU run
HAW +22

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when ASU throws
Omarion Miller
vs
Elijah Palmer
X · ASU
CB1 · HAW
73.4
80.9
HAW +7
when HAW throws
Pofele Ashlock
vs
Ashton Stamps
X · HAW
CB1 · ASU
57.9
85.2
ASU +27
when HAW runs
Cam Barfield
vs
Martell Hughes
RB · HAW
MLB · ASU
61.2
67.7
ASU +6
off the edge· hunting Alejado
Denaris DeRosa Jr.
vs
Jalen Thompson
LT · HAW
EDGE · ASU
44.1
75.2
ASU +31
over the middle
Devon Tauaefa
vs
Rodney Bimage Jr.
TE · HAW
FS · ASU
48.0
70.2
ASU +22
over the middle
Anthony Miller
vs
Jeremiah Hughes
TE · ASU
FS · HAW
51.9
54.3
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Hawai'i
DBElijah Palmer
80.985/1427
QBMicah Alejado
70.339/308
DBMatagi Thompson
62.4418/1427
RBCam Barfield
61.297/514
WRPofele Ashlock
57.9134/777
LBJamih Otis
56.5364/878

also out — P. Ashlock (WR)

Arizona State
DBAshton Stamps
85.243/1427
DBJessiah McGrew
78.0115/1427
WROmarion Miller
73.438/777
SAdrian Wilson
73.3172/1427
WRRaiden Vines-Bright
70.951/777
LBMartell Hughes
67.7182/878

also out — key defensive lineman (DL), Nigel Pringle (CB), Z. Fiaseu (LB)

Projected margin

80% between -6 and 29
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKASU +11.295% interval: -12.7 to 35.180% interval: -6.2 to 28.5-6+29HAW wins 22%ASU wins 78%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ASU 35–21 HAWASU 32–46 HAW neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesASU 35–42 HAW neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesASU 39–39 HAW neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesASU 42–35 HAW neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesASU 46–32 HAW neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesASU 49–28 HAW neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesASU 53–25 HAW neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesASU 56–21 HAW neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesASU 60–18 HAW neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesASU 28–42 HAW neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesASU 32–39 HAW neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesASU 35–35 HAW neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesASU 39–32 HAW neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesASU 42–28 HAW neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesASU 46–25 HAW neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesASU 49–21 HAW neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesASU 53–18 HAW neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesASU 56–14 HAW neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesASU 25–39 HAW neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesASU 28–35 HAW neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesASU 32–32 HAW neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesASU 35–28 HAW neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesASU 39–25 HAW neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesASU 42–21 HAW neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesASU 46–18 HAW neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesASU 49–14 HAW neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesASU 53–11 HAW neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesASU 21–35 HAW neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesASU 25–32 HAW neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesASU 28–28 HAW neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesASU 32–25 HAW neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesASU 35–21 HAW neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesASU 39–18 HAW neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesASU 42–14 HAW neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesASU 46–11 HAW neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesASU 49–7 HAW neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesASU 18–32 HAW neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesASU 21–28 HAW neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesASU 25–25 HAW neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesASU 28–21 HAW neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesASU 32–18 HAW neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesASU 35–14 HAW neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesASU 39–11 HAW neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesASU 42–7 HAW neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesASU 46–4 HAW neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesASU 14–28 HAW neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesASU 18–25 HAW neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesASU 21–21 HAW neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesASU 25–18 HAW neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesASU 28–14 HAW neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesASU 32–11 HAW neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesASU 35–7 HAW neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesASU 39–4 HAW neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesASU 42–0 HAW neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesASU 11–25 HAW neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesASU 14–21 HAW neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesASU 18–18 HAW neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesASU 21–14 HAW neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesASU 25–11 HAW neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesASU 28–7 HAW neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesASU 32–4 HAW neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesASU 35–0 HAW neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalHAW +14PKASU +14ASU +28ASU +42margin →