AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 4:00 AM
#51Away
Cincinnati
0-0 · AVR 54.8
23p
#26Home
Arizona
0-0 · AVR 66.2
33p
CIN 23%77% ARIZ
Spread
ARIZ -10.9
Total
56
Moneyline
CIN+327ARIZ-327
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← CIN advantageevenARIZ advantage →
CIN throw
CIN protection #3ARIZ coverage #5
even
CIN run
CIN backs #64ARIZ front #91
CIN +13
ARIZ throw
CIN coverage #55CIN pass rush #143
ARIZ +26
ARIZ run
CIN linebackers #76
ARIZ +44

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when CIN throws
Isaiah Johnson
vs
Jay'Vion Cole
X · CIN
CB1 · ARIZ
64.7
101.6
ARIZ +37
off the edge· hunting IV
Evan Tengesdahl
vs
Julian Savaiinaea
LT · CIN
EDGE · ARIZ
97.1
60.6
CIN +36
when CIN runs
Zylan Perry
vs
Chase Kennedy
RB · CIN
MLB · ARIZ
62.9
84.0
ARIZ +21
over the middle
Gavin Grover
vs
Johno Price
TE · CIN
FS · ARIZ
61.5
75.7
ARIZ +14
over the middle
Cole Rusk
vs
Antwan Peek Jr.
TE · ARIZ
FS · CIN
69.2
65.6
ARIZ +4
off the edge· hunting Fifita
Tristan Bounds
vs
Chidera Otutu
LT · ARIZ
EDGE · CIN
76.2
57.1
ARIZ +19

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Cincinnati
STy Goodwill
76.9128/1427
DBMJ Cannon
74.9156/1427
LBJonathan Thompson
72.1122/878
SJasper Beeler
67.8287/1427
QBJC French IV
67.449/308
WRIsaiah Johnson
64.785/777
Arizona
CBJay'Vion Cole
101.62/1427
LBChase Kennedy
84.026/878
LBEverett Roussaw Jr.
84.027/878
SGavin Hunter
83.362/1427
SDaylen Austin
75.9141/1427
TECole Rusk
69.212/287

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Cincinnati
opponent
Arizona
away-2.9
Iowa State#56
+10.4home
away+1.5
West Virginia#66
+9.9away
home-11.2
Utah#16
-2.8home
away-14.1
BYU#19
-5.8away
home-0.8
Kansas State#44
+2.6away
home-15.7
Texas Tech#5
-12.3away

Projected margin

80% between -7 and 28
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKARIZ +10.995% interval: -13 to 34.880% interval: -6.5 to 28.3-6+28CIN wins 23%ARIZ wins 77%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ARIZ 35–21 CINARIZ 32–46 CIN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARIZ 35–42 CIN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesARIZ 39–39 CIN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesARIZ 42–35 CIN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARIZ 46–32 CIN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARIZ 49–28 CIN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesARIZ 53–25 CIN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesARIZ 56–21 CIN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARIZ 60–18 CIN neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesARIZ 28–42 CIN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARIZ 32–39 CIN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesARIZ 35–35 CIN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARIZ 39–32 CIN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesARIZ 42–28 CIN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesARIZ 46–25 CIN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesARIZ 49–21 CIN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARIZ 53–18 CIN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARIZ 56–14 CIN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARIZ 25–39 CIN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARIZ 28–35 CIN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesARIZ 32–32 CIN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesARIZ 35–28 CIN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesARIZ 39–25 CIN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesARIZ 42–21 CIN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesARIZ 46–18 CIN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesARIZ 49–14 CIN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARIZ 53–11 CIN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARIZ 21–35 CIN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARIZ 25–32 CIN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesARIZ 28–28 CIN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesARIZ 32–25 CIN neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesARIZ 35–21 CIN neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesARIZ 39–18 CIN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesARIZ 42–14 CIN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesARIZ 46–11 CIN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesARIZ 49–7 CIN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARIZ 18–32 CIN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARIZ 21–28 CIN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesARIZ 25–25 CIN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesARIZ 28–21 CIN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesARIZ 32–18 CIN neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesARIZ 35–14 CIN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesARIZ 39–11 CIN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesARIZ 42–7 CIN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARIZ 46–4 CIN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARIZ 14–28 CIN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARIZ 18–25 CIN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesARIZ 21–21 CIN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARIZ 25–18 CIN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesARIZ 28–14 CIN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesARIZ 32–11 CIN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesARIZ 35–7 CIN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARIZ 39–4 CIN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARIZ 42–0 CIN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARIZ 11–25 CIN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARIZ 14–21 CIN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesARIZ 18–18 CIN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesARIZ 21–14 CIN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARIZ 25–11 CIN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesARIZ 28–7 CIN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesARIZ 32–4 CIN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesARIZ 35–0 CIN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalCIN +14PKARIZ +14ARIZ +28ARIZ +42margin →