CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 11:00 PM ET
#55Away
Cincinnati
4-0 · AVR 64.3
7
Final
#33Home
Arizona
3-1 · AVR 68.4
34
Forecast win probability
CIN 45.7%54.3% ARIZ
Projected margin
ARIZ by 1.4
Projected total
56
80% outcome range
CIN 18 to ARIZ 21
Win probability
ARIZ 54.3%
FinalCIN 7 · ARIZ 34model had +1.4, off by 25.6

Current team profiles

Cincinnati
Arizona

When Cincinnati has the ball

Passing

ARIZ defense
Higher-ranked profile
CIN offense
#45
ARIZ defense
#17
EPA comparison
0.29
#45
-0.01
#17
Pass EPA

Rushing

CIN offense
Higher-ranked profile
CIN offense
#4
ARIZ defense
#47
EPA comparison
0.31
#4
0.00
#47
Rush EPA

Drive success

ARIZ defense
Higher-ranked profile
CIN offense
#46
ARIZ defense
#27
Success rates
46%
#46
35%
#27
Success rate
More metrics
0.29
#21
-0.04
#28
EPA / play
1.35
#16
1.42
#131
Explosiveness
12%
#26
16%
#63
Havoc

When Arizona has the ball

Passing

ARIZ offense
Higher-ranked profile
CIN defense
#103
ARIZ offense
#28
EPA comparison
0.27
#103
0.39
#28
Pass EPA

Rushing

ARIZ offense
Higher-ranked profile
CIN defense
#98
ARIZ offense
#61
EPA comparison
0.11
#98
0.13
#61
Rush EPA

Drive success

ARIZ offense
Higher-ranked profile
CIN defense
#100
ARIZ offense
#21
Success rates
43%
#100
49%
#21
Success rate
More metrics
0.13
#98
0.24
#32
EPA / play
1.20
#57
1.22
#77
Explosiveness
16%
#65
14%
#52
Havoc

Current key players

Cincinnati
QBJC French IV
949 yds · 6 TD · 0 INT
83.253/729
RBCole Tabb
330 yds · 6 TD · 9.7 YPC
92.72/1044
CBZay Johnson
1 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
60.0
Coverage
80.1
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
2
Passer rating allowed
56.3
Missed tackles
0
80.755/2969
LBAntwan Peek Jr.
38 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
73.2
Coverage
74.4
Pressures
8
Pass-rush snaps
42
Missed tackles
3
Forced fumbles
2
76.5149/1796
SMJ Cannon
22 tkl · 3 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
66.8
Coverage
75.0
Targets allowed
22
Rec allowed
13
Yards allowed
194
Passer rating allowed
50.2
Missed tackles
5
75.4179/2969
LBJonathan Thompson
36 tkl · 4.5 TFL · 2.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
73.1
Coverage
70.0
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
30
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
2
74.5197/1796
Availability reports · 2
  • DaMari Witherspoon · TEQues. · 2026-09-27

    Witherspoon is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Arizona on Saturday, October 3th.

  • Giyahni Kontosis · WRprobable · 2026-10-02

    Kontosis is dealing with an undisclosed injury, but he is expected to be active against Arizona on Saturday.

Arizona
QBNoah Fifita
1398 yds · 13 TD · 3 INT
83.452/729
LBDash Fifita
5 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
56.6
Coverage
71.5
Pressures
6
Pass-rush snaps
22
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
84.743/1796
CBJay'Vion Cole
17 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
69.0
Coverage
76.6
Targets allowed
27
Rec allowed
14
Yards allowed
105
Passer rating allowed
73.8
Missed tackles
2
78.390/2969
WRGiovanni Richardson
15 rec · 170 yds · 0 TD
77.089/2069
WRTre Spivey
22 rec · 314 yds · 4 TD
76.1107/2069
RBIsmail Mahdi
72 yds · 0 TD · 6.0 YPC
74.7180/1044
Availability reports · 7
  • Tre Spivey · WRout · 2026-10-04

    Spivey has been out of commission due to ankle injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Daylen Austin · Sout · 2026-09-25

    Austin has been shut down for the remainder of the season due to an undisclosed injury.

  • Giovanni Richardson · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Richardson is managing with an hamstring injury, and it is undetermined if he will face Iowa State on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Cole Rusk · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Rusk is laid up with an lower leg injury, and it is unknown if he will face Iowa State on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Cornelius Warren III · RBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Warren III is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Iowa State on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Max Harris · LBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Harris is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will face Iowa State on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Scotty Brennan · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Brennan is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Iowa State on Saturday, October 24th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

CIN
ARIZ
vs
Offense
83.2
#47 of 138
QB
83.4
#46 of 138
83.7
#17 of 138
RB
74.2
#80 of 138
68.8
#97 of 138
WR
74.4
#39 of 138
70.0
#65 of 138
TE
63.4
#101 of 138
76.4
#11 of 138
OL
75.2
#17 of 138
Defense
67.8
#124 of 138
DL
72.0
#86 of 138
73.7
#73 of 138
LB
74.8
#61 of 138
72.0
#70 of 138
DB
70.9
#84 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Cincinnati
opponent
Arizona
A-0.3
WVU#86
+21.0A
A-5.3
ISU#56
+7.1H
H-11.9
UTAH#9
-5.0H
H+5.0
KSU#37
+1.5A
H-14.9
TTU#10
-13.2A
A-10.9
BYU#18
-11.0A