AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 4:00 AM
#16Away
Utah
0-0 · AVR 71.8
34p
#51Home
Cincinnati
0-0 · AVR 54.8
22p
UTAH 78%22% CIN
Spread
UTAH -11.2
Total
56
Moneyline
UTAH-347CIN+347
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UTAH advantageevenCIN advantage →
UTAH throw
CIN coverage #55CIN pass rush #143
UTAH +52
UTAH run
CIN linebackers #76
UTAH +63
CIN throw
CIN protection #3
UTAH +12
CIN run
CIN backs #64
CIN +19

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting IV
Evan Tengesdahl
vs
Ethan Day
LT · CIN
EDGE · UTAH
97.1
88.6
CIN +9
when UTAH throws
Braden Pegan
vs
Ty Goodwill
X · UTAH
CB1 · CIN
82.5
76.9
UTAH +6
when UTAH runs
Wayshawn Parker
vs
Jonathan Thompson
RB · UTAH
MLB · CIN
84.7
72.1
UTAH +13
when CIN throws
Isaiah Johnson
vs
Jackson Bennee
X · CIN
CB1 · UTAH
64.7
90.2
UTAH +25
off the edge· hunting Dampier
Zereoue Williams
vs
Chidera Otutu
LT · UTAH
EDGE · CIN
87.1
57.1
UTAH +30
over the middle
Gavin Grover
vs
Elijah Davis
TE · CIN
FS · UTAH
61.5
72.8
UTAH +11

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Utah
SJackson Bennee
90.211/1427
RBWayshawn Parker
84.77/514
QBDevon Dampier
83.813/308
WRBraden Pegan
82.517/777
CBElijah Reed
81.083/1427
CBRock Caldwell
77.9116/1427

also out — Kingston Stroshine (LB)

Cincinnati
STy Goodwill
76.9128/1427
DBMJ Cannon
74.9156/1427
LBJonathan Thompson
72.1122/878
SJasper Beeler
67.8287/1427
QBJC French IV
67.449/308
WRIsaiah Johnson
64.785/777

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Utah
opponent
Cincinnati
home+13.1
Houston#36
-5.6away
home+20.2
West Virginia#66
+1.5away
home+4.5
BYU#19
-14.1away
away+2.8
Arizona#26
-10.9away
away+10.7
Iowa State#56
-2.9away
away+17.0
Colorado#74
+8.4home

Projected margin

80% between -29 and 6
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUTAH +11.295% interval: -35.1 to 12.780% interval: -28.5 to 6.2-28+6UTAH wins 78%CIN wins 22%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UTAH 35–21 CINCIN 18–60 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesCIN 21–56 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCIN 25–53 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCIN 28–49 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCIN 32–46 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCIN 35–42 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCIN 39–39 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCIN 42–35 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCIN 46–32 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCIN 14–56 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCIN 18–53 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCIN 21–49 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCIN 25–46 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCIN 28–42 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCIN 32–39 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCIN 35–35 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCIN 39–32 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCIN 42–28 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCIN 11–53 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCIN 14–49 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCIN 18–46 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCIN 21–42 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCIN 25–39 UTAH neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCIN 28–35 UTAH neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCIN 32–32 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCIN 35–28 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCIN 39–25 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCIN 7–49 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCIN 11–46 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCIN 14–42 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCIN 18–39 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCIN 21–35 UTAH neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCIN 25–32 UTAH neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCIN 28–28 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCIN 32–25 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCIN 35–21 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCIN 4–46 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCIN 7–42 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCIN 11–39 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCIN 14–35 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCIN 18–32 UTAH neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCIN 21–28 UTAH neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCIN 25–25 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCIN 28–21 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCIN 32–18 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCIN 0–42 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCIN 4–39 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCIN 7–35 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCIN 11–32 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCIN 14–28 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCIN 18–25 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCIN 21–21 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCIN 25–18 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCIN 28–14 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)CIN 0–35 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCIN 4–32 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCIN 7–28 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCIN 11–25 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCIN 14–21 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCIN 18–18 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCIN 21–14 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCIN 25–11 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalUTAH +42UTAH +28UTAH +14PKCIN +14margin →