AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 5:00 AM
#16Away
Utah
0-0 · AVR 71.8
29p
#26Home
Arizona
0-0 · AVR 66.2
26p
UTAH 58%42% ARIZ
Spread
UTAH -2.8
Total
55
Moneyline
UTAH-140ARIZ+140
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UTAH advantageevenARIZ advantage →
UTAH throw
ARIZ coverage #5ARIZ pass rush #91
UTAH +20
UTAH run
ARIZ front #91ARIZ linebackers #5
UTAH +24
ARIZ throw
UTAH +18
ARIZ run
ARIZ +11

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when UTAH throws
Braden Pegan
vs
Jay'Vion Cole
X · UTAH
CB1 · ARIZ
82.5
101.6
ARIZ +19
when UTAH runs
Wayshawn Parker
vs
Chase Kennedy
RB · UTAH
MLB · ARIZ
84.7
84.0
dead even
off the edge· hunting Fifita
Tristan Bounds
vs
Ethan Day
LT · ARIZ
EDGE · UTAH
76.2
88.6
UTAH +12
off the edge· hunting Dampier
Zereoue Williams
vs
Julian Savaiinaea
LT · UTAH
EDGE · ARIZ
87.1
60.6
UTAH +26
when ARIZ throws
Giovanni Richardson
vs
Jackson Bennee
X · ARIZ
CB1 · UTAH
52.5
90.2
UTAH +38
over the middle
Hunter Andrews
vs
Johno Price
TE · UTAH
FS · ARIZ
66.4
75.7
ARIZ +9

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Utah
SJackson Bennee
90.211/1427
RBWayshawn Parker
84.77/514
QBDevon Dampier
83.813/308
WRBraden Pegan
82.517/777
CBElijah Reed
81.083/1427
CBRock Caldwell
77.9116/1427

also out — Kingston Stroshine (LB)

Arizona
CBJay'Vion Cole
101.62/1427
LBChase Kennedy
84.026/878
LBEverett Roussaw Jr.
84.027/878
SGavin Hunter
83.362/1427
SDaylen Austin
75.9141/1427
TECole Rusk
69.212/287

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Utah
opponent
Arizona
home+4.5
BYU#19
-5.8away
home+20.2
West Virginia#66
+9.9away
away+6.2
TCU#32
+5.9home
away+10.7
Iowa State#56
+10.4home
away+11.2
Cincinnati#51
+10.9home

Projected margin

80% between -20 and 15
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUTAH +2.895% interval: -26.7 to 21.180% interval: -20.2 to 14.6-20+15UTAH wins 58%ARIZ wins 42%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ARIZ 28–28 UTAHARIZ 25–53 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARIZ 28–49 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesARIZ 32–46 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesARIZ 35–42 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesARIZ 39–39 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesARIZ 42–35 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesARIZ 46–32 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesARIZ 49–28 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARIZ 53–25 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesARIZ 21–49 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARIZ 25–46 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesARIZ 28–42 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesARIZ 32–39 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesARIZ 35–35 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesARIZ 39–32 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARIZ 42–28 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARIZ 46–25 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARIZ 49–21 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARIZ 18–46 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARIZ 21–42 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesARIZ 25–39 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesARIZ 28–35 UTAH neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesARIZ 32–32 UTAH neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesARIZ 35–28 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesARIZ 39–25 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesARIZ 42–21 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARIZ 46–18 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARIZ 14–42 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARIZ 18–39 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesARIZ 21–35 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesARIZ 25–32 UTAH neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesARIZ 28–28 UTAH neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesARIZ 32–25 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesARIZ 35–21 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesARIZ 39–18 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesARIZ 42–14 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARIZ 11–39 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARIZ 14–35 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesARIZ 18–32 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesARIZ 21–28 UTAH neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesARIZ 25–25 UTAH neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesARIZ 28–21 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesARIZ 32–18 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesARIZ 35–14 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesARIZ 39–11 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARIZ 7–35 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARIZ 11–32 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesARIZ 14–28 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesARIZ 18–25 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesARIZ 21–21 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesARIZ 25–18 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesARIZ 28–14 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesARIZ 32–11 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARIZ 35–7 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARIZ 4–32 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARIZ 7–28 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesARIZ 11–25 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesARIZ 14–21 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesARIZ 18–18 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesARIZ 21–14 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesARIZ 25–11 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesARIZ 28–7 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARIZ 32–4 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalUTAH +28UTAH +14PKARIZ +14ARIZ +28margin →