CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 12:00 AM ET
Forecast win probability
OKST 32.2%67.8% ASU
Projected margin
ASU by 7.4
Projected total
58
80% outcome range
OKST 11 to ASU 26
Win probability
ASU 67.8%

Current team profiles

Oklahoma State
Arizona State

When Oklahoma State has the ball

Passing

OKST offense
Higher-ranked profile
OKST offense
#31
ASU defense
#65
EPA comparison
0.37
#31
0.12
#65
Pass EPA

Rushing

ASU defense
Higher-ranked profile
OKST offense
#93
ASU defense
#84
EPA comparison
0.04
#93
0.07
#84
Rush EPA

Drive success

OKST offense
Higher-ranked profile
OKST offense
#18
ASU defense
#49
Success rates
50%
#18
38%
#49
Success rate
More metrics
0.17
#63
0.09
#87
EPA / play
1.09
#128
1.31
#105
Explosiveness
10%
#9
15%
#90
Havoc

When Arizona State has the ball

Passing

OKST defense
Higher-ranked profile
OKST defense
#41
ASU offense
#84
EPA comparison
0.07
#41
0.16
#84
Pass EPA

Rushing

OKST defense
Higher-ranked profile
OKST defense
#47
ASU offense
#88
EPA comparison
0.00
#47
0.06
#88
Rush EPA

Drive success

OKST defense
Higher-ranked profile
OKST defense
#54
ASU offense
#67
Success rates
39%
#54
44%
#67
Success rate
More metrics
0.02
#52
0.07
#98
EPA / play
1.20
#57
1.21
#86
Explosiveness
15%
#81
16%
#88
Havoc

Current key players

Oklahoma State
QBDrew Mestemaker
1271 yds · 11 TD · 5 INT
83.155/729
WRWyatt Young
22 rec · 410 yds · 3 TD
84.026/2069
RBKD Jones
54 yds · 1 TD · 7.7 YPC
83.744/1044
LBEthan Wesloski
36 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
73.6
Coverage
81.3
Pressures
4
Pass-rush snaps
17
Missed tackles
7
Forced fumbles
0
79.392/1796
CBMo Horn
10 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
61.7
Coverage
82.3
Targets allowed
11
Rec allowed
8
Yards allowed
66
Passer rating allowed
118.0
Missed tackles
0
78.192/2969
LBJack Puckett
0 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
61.7
Coverage
60.7
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
75.8161/1796
Availability reports · 2
  • Jacob Sexton · OGout · 2026-10-10

    Sexton is dealing with a leg injury, and there is no timetable for return.

  • Oscar Hammond · TEout · 2026-09-20

    Hammond is hobbled by an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for his return.

Arizona State
QBCutter Boley
1040 yds · 10 TD · 3 INT
78.286/729
WRReed Harris
26 rec · 499 yds · 5 TD
88.012/2069
LBIsaiah Iosefa
2 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
70.8
Coverage
71.1
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
82.361/1796
RBDemarius Robinson
27 yds · 0 TD · 6.8 YPC
80.571/1044
DBCaleb Chester
9 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
73.0
Coverage
77.8
Targets allowed
7
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
34
Passer rating allowed
86.9
Missed tackles
1
79.176/2969
DBLyrik Rawls
11 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
72.5
Coverage
79.6
Targets allowed
9
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
87
Passer rating allowed
95.4
Missed tackles
2
75.9162/2969
Availability reports · 6
  • Lyrik Rawls · CBout · 2026-10-07

    Rawls is managing with a leg injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

  • Khamari Anderson · TEout · 2026-09-21

    Anderson is sidelined with a leg injury, and it is anticipated that he will miss the remainder of the season.

  • Wade Helton · OGout · 2026-09-18

    Helton is sidelined with a leg injury, and he will miss an extended period.

  • Zyrus Fiaseu · LBout · 2026-08-25

    Fiaseu is sidelined with a knee injury, and he is projected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Grayson Rigdon · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Rigdon is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be active against the Raiders on Saturday, October

  • Harry Hassmann · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Hassmann is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against the Raiders on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

OKST
ASU
vs
Offense
83.1
#48 of 138
QB
78.2
#67 of 138
79.5
#38 of 138
RB
78.6
#43 of 138
76.0
#30 of 138
WR
72.8
#51 of 138
60.4
#115 of 138
TE
60.5
#114 of 138
69.7
#56 of 138
OL
70.2
#52 of 138
Defense
75.6
#49 of 138
DL
76.2
#44 of 138
76.0
#51 of 138
LB
72.0
#88 of 138
70.7
#88 of 138
DB
73.3
#53 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Oklahoma State
opponent
Arizona State
H+14.0
UCF#48
-3.8A
A-12.3
KSU#37
-2.2H
H+0.1
KU#31
+7.0N
H+4.8
COLO#84
+9.6H
H-21.6
TTU#10
-22.2A