AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 5:00 AM
#97Away
Oklahoma State
0-0 · AVR 40.7
20p
#43Home
Arizona State
0-0 · AVR 57.5
35p
OKST 14%86% ASU
Spread
ASU -15.7
Total
55
Moneyline
OKST+617ASU-617
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← OKST advantageevenASU advantage →
OKST throw
OKST protection #77
even
OKST run
OKST backs #26
ASU +5
ASU throw
ASU WR #16ASU protection #115
OKST +12
ASU run
OKST +47

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Mestemaker
Johnny Dickson III
vs
Jalen Thompson
LT · OKST
EDGE · ASU
90.8
75.2
OKST +16
when OKST throws
Wyatt Young
vs
Ashton Stamps
X · OKST
CB1 · ASU
79.7
85.2
ASU +5
when OKST runs
Caleb Hawkins
vs
Martell Hughes
RB · OKST
MLB · ASU
88.3
67.7
OKST +21
when ASU throws
Omarion Miller
vs
Kollin Lewis
X · ASU
CB1 · OKST
73.4
68.8
ASU +5
when ASU runs
Demarius Robinson
vs
Ethan Wesloski
RB · ASU
MLB · OKST
47.5
76.0
OKST +28
over the middle
Anthony Miller
vs
Mo Horn
TE · ASU
FS · OKST
51.9
63.9
OKST +12

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Oklahoma State
RBCaleb Hawkins
88.32/514
QBDrew Mestemaker
86.39/308
WRWyatt Young
79.722/777
LBEthan Wesloski
76.095/878
CBKollin Lewis
68.8265/1427
SChristian Bodnar
68.1279/1427
Arizona State
DBAshton Stamps
85.243/1427
DBJessiah McGrew
78.0115/1427
WROmarion Miller
73.438/777
SAdrian Wilson
73.3172/1427
WRRaiden Vines-Bright
70.951/777
LBMartell Hughes
67.7182/878

also out — key defensive lineman (DL), Nigel Pringle (CB), Z. Fiaseu (LB)

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Oklahoma State
opponent
Arizona State
away-17.7
Kansas State#44
+0.5home
home-3.6
Colorado#74
+9.7home
home-10.7
Kansas#50
0.0neutral
home-27.6
Texas Tech#5
-19.4away
home-8.3
UCF#52
-0.1away

Projected margin

80% between -2 and 33
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKASU +15.795% interval: -8.2 to 39.680% interval: -1.7 to 33.1-2+33OKST wins 14%ASU wins 86%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ASU 35–21 OKSTASU 32–46 OKST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesASU 35–42 OKST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesASU 39–39 OKST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesASU 42–35 OKST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesASU 46–32 OKST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesASU 49–28 OKST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesASU 53–25 OKST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesASU 56–21 OKST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesASU 60–18 OKST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesASU 28–42 OKST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesASU 32–39 OKST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesASU 35–35 OKST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesASU 39–32 OKST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesASU 42–28 OKST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesASU 46–25 OKST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesASU 49–21 OKST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesASU 53–18 OKST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesASU 56–14 OKST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesASU 25–39 OKST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesASU 28–35 OKST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesASU 32–32 OKST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesASU 35–28 OKST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesASU 39–25 OKST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesASU 42–21 OKST neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesASU 46–18 OKST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesASU 49–14 OKST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesASU 53–11 OKST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesASU 21–35 OKST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesASU 25–32 OKST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesASU 28–28 OKST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesASU 32–25 OKST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesASU 35–21 OKST neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesASU 39–18 OKST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesASU 42–14 OKST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesASU 46–11 OKST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesASU 49–7 OKST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesASU 18–32 OKST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesASU 21–28 OKST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesASU 25–25 OKST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesASU 28–21 OKST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesASU 32–18 OKST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesASU 35–14 OKST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesASU 39–11 OKST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesASU 42–7 OKST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesASU 46–4 OKST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesASU 14–28 OKST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesASU 18–25 OKST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesASU 21–21 OKST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesASU 25–18 OKST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesASU 28–14 OKST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesASU 32–11 OKST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesASU 35–7 OKST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesASU 39–4 OKST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesASU 42–0 OKST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesASU 11–25 OKST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesASU 14–21 OKST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesASU 18–18 OKST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesASU 21–14 OKST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesASU 25–11 OKST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesASU 28–7 OKST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesASU 32–4 OKST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesASU 35–0 OKST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalOKST +14PKASU +14ASU +28ASU +42margin →