AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 5:00 AM
#17Away
Tennessee
0-0 · AVR 71.5
28p
#8Home
Texas A&M
0-0 · AVR 76.5
35p
TENN 30%70% TA&M
Spread
TA&M -7.7
Total
63
Moneyline
TENN+237TA&M-237
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TENN advantageevenTA&M advantage →
TENN throw
TENN QB #86TENN WR #10
TA&M +21
TENN run
even
TA&M throw
TA&M WR #1TA&M protection #120
even
TA&M run
TA&M line #120TA&M backs #40
TENN +41

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Phillips
Shamurad Umarov
vs
Ryan Henderson
LT · TENN
EDGE · TA&M
81.0
88.3
TA&M +7
when TENN runs
DeSean Bishop
vs
Daymion Sanford
RB · TENN
MLB · TA&M
85.8
82.7
TENN +3
when TA&M throws
Mario Craver
vs
Ty Redmond
X · TA&M
CB1 · TENN
85.5
78.0
TA&M +8
when TENN throws
Mike Matthews
vs
Marcus Ratcliffe
X · TENN
CB1 · TA&M
79.8
80.6
dead even
when TA&M runs
Rueben Owens II
vs
Amare Campbell
RB · TA&M
MLB · TENN
74.1
77.3
TENN +3
over the middle
Ethan Davis
vs
Adam Graham
TE · TENN
FS · TA&M
66.4
70.8
TA&M +4

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Tennessee
RBDeSean Bishop
85.85/514
WRMike Matthews
79.821/777
DBTy Redmond
78.0114/1427
DBQua Moss
77.8119/1427
LBAmare Campbell
77.387/878
WRBraylon Staley
75.532/777

also out — Jadais Richard (CB), EDGE Jaedon Harmon (EDGE), Jaedon Harmon (EDGE), Tennessee Football Starting Defender (S), Tennessee defensive back (DB), unknown (S), Farooq (S), Tennessee (S) +1 more

Texas A&M
WRMario Craver
85.513/777
LBDaymion Sanford
82.739/878
SMarcus Ratcliffe
80.688/1427
QBMarcel Reed
80.221/308
LBRay Coney
78.869/878
CBRickey Gibson III
78.4108/1427

also out — Target After Missing, Former Texas A&M OL (OL), star safety (S), Chace Sims (DL), DT Sims, McGuire (OL), Myles (WR), Player 1 +3 more

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Tennessee
opponent
Texas A&M
away+8.8
Arkansas#40
+19.0home
home-1.7
Texas#9
+3.5home
away+2.8
South Carolina#29
+8.0away
home+21.3
Kentucky#67
+26.5home
home+6.5
LSU#20
+6.7away
home+0.5
Alabama#12
+0.6away

Projected margin

80% between -10 and 25
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTA&M +7.795% interval: -16.2 to 31.680% interval: -9.7 to 25.1-10+25TENN wins 30%TA&M wins 70%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TA&M 35–28 TENNTA&M 32–53 TENN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTA&M 35–49 TENN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTA&M 39–46 TENN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTA&M 42–42 TENN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTA&M 46–39 TENN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTA&M 49–35 TENN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTA&M 53–32 TENN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTA&M 56–28 TENN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTA&M 60–25 TENN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTA&M 28–49 TENN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTA&M 32–46 TENN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTA&M 35–42 TENN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTA&M 39–39 TENN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTA&M 42–35 TENN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTA&M 46–32 TENN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTA&M 49–28 TENN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTA&M 53–25 TENN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTA&M 56–21 TENN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTA&M 25–46 TENN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTA&M 28–42 TENN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTA&M 32–39 TENN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTA&M 35–35 TENN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTA&M 39–32 TENN neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTA&M 42–28 TENN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTA&M 46–25 TENN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTA&M 49–21 TENN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTA&M 53–18 TENN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTA&M 21–42 TENN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTA&M 25–39 TENN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTA&M 28–35 TENN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTA&M 32–32 TENN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTA&M 35–28 TENN neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesTA&M 39–25 TENN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTA&M 42–21 TENN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTA&M 46–18 TENN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTA&M 49–14 TENN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTA&M 18–39 TENN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTA&M 21–35 TENN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTA&M 25–32 TENN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTA&M 28–28 TENN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTA&M 32–25 TENN neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTA&M 35–21 TENN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTA&M 39–18 TENN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTA&M 42–14 TENN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTA&M 46–11 TENN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTA&M 14–35 TENN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTA&M 18–32 TENN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTA&M 21–28 TENN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTA&M 25–25 TENN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTA&M 28–21 TENN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTA&M 32–18 TENN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTA&M 35–14 TENN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTA&M 39–11 TENN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTA&M 42–7 TENN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTA&M 11–32 TENN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTA&M 14–28 TENN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTA&M 18–25 TENN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTA&M 21–21 TENN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTA&M 25–18 TENN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTA&M 28–14 TENN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTA&M 32–11 TENN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTA&M 35–7 TENN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTA&M 39–4 TENN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes84777063564942totalTENN +21TENN +7TA&M +7TA&M +21TA&M +35margin →