AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Fri Sep 18 · 11:30 PM
#6Away
Miami
0-0 · AVR 77.0
33p
#46Home
Wake Forest
0-0 · AVR 56.4
20p
MIA 82%18% WAKE
Spread
MIA -13.3
Total
53
Moneyline
MIA-456WAKE+456
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MIA advantageevenWAKE advantage →
MIA throw
MIA +9
MIA run
MIA +8
WAKE throw
MIA +46
WAKE run
MIA +54

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Mensah
Samson Okunlola
vs
Langston Hardy
LT · MIA
EDGE · WAKE
87.5
96.3
WAKE +9
when MIA throws
Cooper Barkate
vs
Davaughn Patterson
X · MIA
CB1 · WAKE
87.0
84.7
dead even
when MIA runs
Mark Fletcher Jr.
vs
Aiden Hall
RB · MIA
MLB · WAKE
84.5
84.0
dead even
when WAKE runs
Ty Clark III
vs
Kamal Bonner
RB · WAKE
MLB · MIA
59.7
82.9
MIA +23
when WAKE throws
Carlos Hernandez
vs
Xavier Lucas
X · WAKE
CB1 · MIA
56.6
85.4
MIA +29
over the middle
Elija Lofton
vs
Freddie Gillens
TE · MIA
FS · WAKE
69.0
66.4
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Miami
WRCooper Barkate
87.06/777
DBXavier Lucas
85.442/1427
RBMark Fletcher Jr.
84.59/514
QBDarian Mensah
84.311/308
DBBryce Fitzgerald
83.561/1427
LBKamal Bonner
82.935/878

also out — Hayden Lowe, Luka Gilbert, Jontavius Wyman

Wake Forest
DBDavaughn Patterson
84.746/1427
LBAiden Hall
84.028/878
DBDeuce Blades II
73.7167/1427
DBKoredell Bartley
69.7245/1427
LBFrank Cusano
69.3157/878
RBTy Clark III
59.7116/514

Common opponents

2 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Miami
opponent
Wake Forest
home+16.4
Duke#39
+0.6home
away+14.8
Stanford#96
+14.2home

Projected margin

80% between -31 and 4
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMIA +13.395% interval: -37.2 to 10.680% interval: -30.7 to 4.1-31+4MIA wins 82%WAKE wins 18%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MIA 35–21 WAKEWAKE 18–60 MIA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWAKE 21–56 MIA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWAKE 25–53 MIA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWAKE 28–49 MIA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWAKE 32–46 MIA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWAKE 35–42 MIA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWAKE 39–39 MIA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWAKE 42–35 MIA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWAKE 46–32 MIA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWAKE 14–56 MIA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWAKE 18–53 MIA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWAKE 21–49 MIA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWAKE 25–46 MIA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWAKE 28–42 MIA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWAKE 32–39 MIA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWAKE 35–35 MIA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWAKE 39–32 MIA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWAKE 42–28 MIA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWAKE 11–53 MIA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWAKE 14–49 MIA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWAKE 18–46 MIA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWAKE 21–42 MIA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWAKE 25–39 MIA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWAKE 28–35 MIA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWAKE 32–32 MIA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWAKE 35–28 MIA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWAKE 39–25 MIA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWAKE 7–49 MIA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWAKE 11–46 MIA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWAKE 14–42 MIA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWAKE 18–39 MIA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWAKE 21–35 MIA neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesWAKE 25–32 MIA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWAKE 28–28 MIA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWAKE 32–25 MIA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWAKE 35–21 MIA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWAKE 4–46 MIA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWAKE 7–42 MIA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWAKE 11–39 MIA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWAKE 14–35 MIA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWAKE 18–32 MIA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesWAKE 21–28 MIA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesWAKE 25–25 MIA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWAKE 28–21 MIA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWAKE 32–18 MIA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWAKE 0–42 MIA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWAKE 4–39 MIA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWAKE 7–35 MIA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWAKE 11–32 MIA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWAKE 14–28 MIA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesWAKE 18–25 MIA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWAKE 21–21 MIA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWAKE 25–18 MIA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWAKE 28–14 MIA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)WAKE 0–35 MIA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWAKE 4–32 MIA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWAKE 7–28 MIA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWAKE 11–25 MIA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWAKE 14–21 MIA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWAKE 18–18 MIA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWAKE 21–14 MIA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWAKE 25–11 MIA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalMIA +42MIA +28MIA +14PKWAKE +14margin →