AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Fri Oct 2 · 11:00 PM
#33Away
Pittsburgh
0-0 · AVR 60.7
30p
#57Home
Virginia Tech
0-0 · AVR 52.8
27p
PITT 60%40% VT
Spread
PITT -3.5
Total
57
Moneyline
PITT-147VT+147
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← PITT advantageevenVT advantage →
PITT throw
PITT QB #26PITT protection #78
even
PITT run
PITT backs #32
even
VT throw
PITT pass rush #8
PITT +4
VT run
PITT +20

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Grunkemeyer
Brody Meadows
vs
Jimmy Scott
LT · VT
EDGE · PITT
73.1
88.3
PITT +15
when VT runs
Marcellous Hawkins
vs
Braylan Lovelace
RB · VT
MLB · PITT
71.4
89.0
PITT +18
when VT throws
Que'Sean Brown
vs
Shawn Lee Jr.
X · VT
CB1 · PITT
74.1
84.7
PITT +11
when PITT throws
Bryce Yates
vs
Jaquez White
X · PITT
CB1 · VT
55.6
90.0
VT +34
when PITT runs
Ja'Kyrian Turner
vs
Curtis Jones Jr.
RB · PITT
MLB · VT
73.8
68.4
PITT +5
off the edge· hunting Heintschel
Ryan Baer
vs
Kemari Copeland
LT · PITT
EDGE · VT
45.5
78.8
VT +33

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Pittsburgh
LBBraylan Lovelace
89.012/878
DBShawn Lee Jr.
84.748/1427
LBDeMarco Ward
79.067/878
QBMason Heintschel
77.426/308
DBCruce Brookins
76.7130/1427
RBJa'Kyrian Turner
73.840/514

also out — Keith Gouveia (OL)

Virginia Tech
CBJaquez White
90.012/1427
CBCam Chadwick Jr.
75.7146/1427
WRQue'Sean Brown
74.136/777
RBMarcellous Hawkins
71.446/514
LBCurtis Jones Jr.
68.4170/878
TELuke Reynolds
67.216/287

also out — Gabe Williams (LB)

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Pittsburgh
opponent
Virginia Tech
away+7.4
Boston College#79
+1.4away
away-14.2
Miami#6
-20.2away
home+3.0
Georgia Tech#38
-3.0home
away+6.6
California#68
+0.6away

Projected margin

80% between -21 and 14
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKPITT +3.595% interval: -27.4 to 20.480% interval: -20.9 to 13.9-21+14PITT wins 60%VT wins 40%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ PITT 32–25 VTVT 25–53 PITT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesVT 28–49 PITT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesVT 32–46 PITT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesVT 35–42 PITT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesVT 39–39 PITT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesVT 42–35 PITT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesVT 46–32 PITT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesVT 49–28 PITT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesVT 53–25 PITT neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesVT 21–49 PITT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesVT 25–46 PITT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesVT 28–42 PITT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesVT 32–39 PITT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesVT 35–35 PITT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesVT 39–32 PITT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesVT 42–28 PITT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesVT 46–25 PITT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesVT 49–21 PITT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesVT 18–46 PITT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesVT 21–42 PITT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesVT 25–39 PITT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesVT 28–35 PITT neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesVT 32–32 PITT neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesVT 35–28 PITT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesVT 39–25 PITT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesVT 42–21 PITT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesVT 46–18 PITT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesVT 14–42 PITT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesVT 18–39 PITT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesVT 21–35 PITT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesVT 25–32 PITT neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesVT 28–28 PITT neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesVT 32–25 PITT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesVT 35–21 PITT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesVT 39–18 PITT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesVT 42–14 PITT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesVT 11–39 PITT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesVT 14–35 PITT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesVT 18–32 PITT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesVT 21–28 PITT neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesVT 25–25 PITT neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesVT 28–21 PITT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesVT 32–18 PITT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesVT 35–14 PITT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesVT 39–11 PITT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesVT 7–35 PITT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesVT 11–32 PITT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesVT 14–28 PITT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesVT 18–25 PITT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesVT 21–21 PITT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesVT 25–18 PITT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesVT 28–14 PITT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesVT 32–11 PITT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesVT 35–7 PITT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesVT 4–32 PITT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesVT 7–28 PITT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesVT 11–25 PITT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesVT 14–21 PITT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesVT 18–18 PITT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesVT 21–14 PITT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesVT 25–11 PITT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesVT 28–7 PITT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesVT 32–4 PITT neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes77706356494235totalPITT +28PITT +14PKVT +14VT +28margin →