AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 4:00 AM
Florida State-Miami
#30Away
Florida State
0-0 · AVR 62.6
23p
#6Home
Miami
0-0 · AVR 77.0
33p
FSU 25%75% MIA
Spread
MIA -10.0
Total
57
Moneyline
FSU+303MIA-303
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← FSU advantageevenMIA advantage →
FSU throw
FSU WR #3FSU protection #74
MIA +32
FSU run
MIA +37
MIA throw
MIA +32
MIA run
MIA +21

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when FSU throws
Duce Robinson
vs
Xavier Lucas
X · FSU
CB1 · MIA
87.7
85.4
dead even
when MIA runs
Mark Fletcher Jr.
vs
Blake Nichelson
RB · MIA
MLB · FSU
84.5
79.5
MIA +5
off the edge· hunting Sperry
Xavier Chaplin
vs
Damon Wilson II
LT · FSU
EDGE · MIA
68.0
93.8
MIA +26
when MIA throws
Cooper Barkate
vs
Nehemiah Chandler
X · MIA
CB1 · FSU
87.0
73.6
MIA +13
off the edge· hunting Mensah
Samson Okunlola
vs
Rylan Kennedy
LT · MIA
EDGE · FSU
87.5
67.8
MIA +20
when FSU runs
Quintrevion Wisner
vs
Kamal Bonner
RB · FSU
MLB · MIA
68.8
82.9
MIA +14

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Florida State
WRDuce Robinson
87.74/777
WRMicahi Danzy
86.98/777
LBBlake Nichelson
79.560/878
LBChris Jones
73.9113/878
DBNehemiah Chandler
73.6168/1427
DBAshlynd Barker
71.8195/1427

also out — Daniel Lyons, Malachi Marshall (QB), DB Transfer, Karson Hobbs, Devin Carter (WR), FSU freshman wide receiver (WR), Mike Norvell (WR), Dexter Carter Speaks +1 more

Miami
WRCooper Barkate
87.06/777
DBXavier Lucas
85.442/1427
RBMark Fletcher Jr.
84.59/514
QBDarian Mensah
84.311/308
DBBryce Fitzgerald
83.561/1427
LBKamal Bonner
82.935/878

also out — Hayden Lowe, Luka Gilbert, Jontavius Wyman

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Florida State
opponent
Miami
away+11.6
Boston College#79
+24.2home
away+1.7
Pittsburgh#33
+14.2home
home+2.3
Clemson#27
+4.9away

Projected margin

80% between -7 and 27
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMIA +10.095% interval: -13.9 to 33.980% interval: -7.3 to 27.4-7+27FSU wins 25%MIA wins 75%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MIA 32–25 FSUMIA 28–49 FSU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesMIA 32–46 FSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMIA 35–42 FSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMIA 39–39 FSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMIA 42–35 FSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMIA 46–32 FSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMIA 49–28 FSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMIA 53–25 FSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMIA 56–21 FSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMIA 25–46 FSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMIA 28–42 FSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMIA 32–39 FSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMIA 35–35 FSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMIA 39–32 FSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMIA 42–28 FSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMIA 46–25 FSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMIA 49–21 FSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMIA 53–18 FSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMIA 21–42 FSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMIA 25–39 FSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMIA 28–35 FSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMIA 32–32 FSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMIA 35–28 FSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMIA 39–25 FSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMIA 42–21 FSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMIA 46–18 FSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMIA 49–14 FSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMIA 18–39 FSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMIA 21–35 FSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMIA 25–32 FSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMIA 28–28 FSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMIA 32–25 FSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMIA 35–21 FSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMIA 39–18 FSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMIA 42–14 FSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMIA 46–11 FSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMIA 14–35 FSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMIA 18–32 FSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMIA 21–28 FSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMIA 25–25 FSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMIA 28–21 FSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMIA 32–18 FSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMIA 35–14 FSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMIA 39–11 FSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMIA 42–7 FSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMIA 11–32 FSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMIA 14–28 FSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMIA 18–25 FSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMIA 21–21 FSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMIA 25–18 FSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMIA 28–14 FSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMIA 32–11 FSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMIA 35–7 FSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMIA 39–4 FSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMIA 7–28 FSU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesMIA 11–25 FSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMIA 14–21 FSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMIA 18–18 FSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMIA 21–14 FSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMIA 25–11 FSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMIA 28–7 FSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMIA 32–4 FSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMIA 35–0 FSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalFSU +21FSU +7MIA +7MIA +21MIA +35margin →