AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 4:00 AM
#33Away
Pittsburgh
0-0 · AVR 60.7
21p
#6Home
Miami
0-0 · AVR 77.0
35p
PITT 17%83% MIA
Spread
MIA -14.2
Total
56
Moneyline
PITT+492MIA-492
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← PITT advantageevenMIA advantage →
PITT throw
PITT QB #26PITT protection #78
MIA +36
PITT run
PITT backs #32
MIA +38
MIA throw
PITT pass rush #8
MIA +22
MIA run
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Mensah
Samson Okunlola
vs
Jimmy Scott
LT · MIA
EDGE · PITT
87.5
88.3
dead even
when MIA runs
Mark Fletcher Jr.
vs
Braylan Lovelace
RB · MIA
MLB · PITT
84.5
89.0
PITT +4
when MIA throws
Cooper Barkate
vs
Shawn Lee Jr.
X · MIA
CB1 · PITT
87.0
84.7
dead even
when PITT runs
Ja'Kyrian Turner
vs
Kamal Bonner
RB · PITT
MLB · MIA
73.8
82.9
MIA +9
when PITT throws
Bryce Yates
vs
Xavier Lucas
X · PITT
CB1 · MIA
55.6
85.4
MIA +30
off the edge· hunting Heintschel
Ryan Baer
vs
Damon Wilson II
LT · PITT
EDGE · MIA
45.5
93.8
MIA +48

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Pittsburgh
LBBraylan Lovelace
89.012/878
DBShawn Lee Jr.
84.748/1427
LBDeMarco Ward
79.067/878
QBMason Heintschel
77.426/308
DBCruce Brookins
76.7130/1427
RBJa'Kyrian Turner
73.840/514

also out — Keith Gouveia (OL)

Miami
WRCooper Barkate
87.06/777
DBXavier Lucas
85.442/1427
RBMark Fletcher Jr.
84.59/514
QBDarian Mensah
84.311/308
DBBryce Fitzgerald
83.561/1427
LBKamal Bonner
82.935/878

also out — Hayden Lowe, Luka Gilbert, Jontavius Wyman

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Pittsburgh
opponent
Miami
away+7.4
Boston College#79
+24.2home
away+3.5
Virginia Tech#57
+20.2home
home-1.7
Florida State#30
+10.0home
home+8.3
North Carolina#61
+15.1away

Projected margin

80% between -3 and 32
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMIA +14.295% interval: -9.7 to 38.180% interval: -3.2 to 31.6-3+32PITT wins 17%MIA wins 83%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MIA 35–21 PITTMIA 32–46 PITT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMIA 35–42 PITT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMIA 39–39 PITT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMIA 42–35 PITT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMIA 46–32 PITT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMIA 49–28 PITT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMIA 53–25 PITT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMIA 56–21 PITT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMIA 60–18 PITT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMIA 28–42 PITT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMIA 32–39 PITT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMIA 35–35 PITT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMIA 39–32 PITT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMIA 42–28 PITT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMIA 46–25 PITT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMIA 49–21 PITT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMIA 53–18 PITT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMIA 56–14 PITT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMIA 25–39 PITT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMIA 28–35 PITT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMIA 32–32 PITT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMIA 35–28 PITT neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMIA 39–25 PITT neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMIA 42–21 PITT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMIA 46–18 PITT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMIA 49–14 PITT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMIA 53–11 PITT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMIA 21–35 PITT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMIA 25–32 PITT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMIA 28–28 PITT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMIA 32–25 PITT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMIA 35–21 PITT neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesMIA 39–18 PITT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMIA 42–14 PITT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMIA 46–11 PITT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMIA 49–7 PITT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMIA 18–32 PITT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMIA 21–28 PITT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMIA 25–25 PITT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMIA 28–21 PITT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMIA 32–18 PITT neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMIA 35–14 PITT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMIA 39–11 PITT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMIA 42–7 PITT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMIA 46–4 PITT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMIA 14–28 PITT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMIA 18–25 PITT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMIA 21–21 PITT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMIA 25–18 PITT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMIA 28–14 PITT neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMIA 32–11 PITT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMIA 35–7 PITT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMIA 39–4 PITT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMIA 42–0 PITT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMIA 11–25 PITT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMIA 14–21 PITT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMIA 18–18 PITT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMIA 21–14 PITT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMIA 25–11 PITT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMIA 28–7 PITT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMIA 32–4 PITT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMIA 35–0 PITT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalPITT +14PKMIA +14MIA +28MIA +42margin →