CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 7:30 PM ET
Forecast win probability
MIA 36.5%63.5% ND
Projected margin
ND by 5.6
Projected total
57
80% outcome range
MIA 13 to ND 24
Win probability
ND 63.5%

Current team profiles

Miami
Notre Dame

When Miami has the ball

Passing

MIA offense
Higher-ranked profile
MIA offense
#1
ND defense
#34
EPA comparison
0.74
#1
0.05
#34
Pass EPA

Rushing

ND defense
Higher-ranked profile
MIA offense
#51
ND defense
#2
EPA comparison
0.15
#51
-0.23
#2
Rush EPA

Drive success

MIA offense
Higher-ranked profile
MIA offense
#1
ND defense
#9
Success rates
56%
#1
33%
#9
Success rate
More metrics
0.42
#1
-0.09
#11
EPA / play
1.26
#55
1.20
#65
Explosiveness
8%
#3
23%
#3
Havoc

When Notre Dame has the ball

Passing

ND offense
Higher-ranked profile
MIA defense
#30
ND offense
#8
EPA comparison
0.02
#30
0.54
#8
Pass EPA

Rushing

MIA defense
Higher-ranked profile
MIA defense
#10
ND offense
#19
EPA comparison
-0.15
#10
0.24
#19
Rush EPA

Drive success

ND offense
Higher-ranked profile
MIA defense
#16
ND offense
#3
Success rates
34%
#16
53%
#3
Success rate
More metrics
-0.06
#19
0.36
#4
EPA / play
1.19
#53
1.15
#107
Explosiveness
16%
#70
10%
#9
Havoc

Current key players

Miami
QBDarian Mensah
1438 yds · 15 TD · 0 INT
92.82/729
WRMalachi Toney
39 rec · 604 yds · 6 TD
93.03/2069
RBCharMar Brown
97 yds · 1 TD · 7.5 YPC
84.840/1044
TEJack Nickel
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
Run blocking
80.9
Penalties
0
84.014/1017
DBEthan O'Connor
16 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
59.2
Coverage
86.8
Targets allowed
18
Rec allowed
10
Yards allowed
65
Passer rating allowed
40.3
Missed tackles
4
83.930/2969
DBBryce Fitzgerald
13 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
70.5
Coverage
80.3
Targets allowed
16
Rec allowed
9
Yards allowed
75
Passer rating allowed
68.5
Missed tackles
2
79.372/2969
Availability reports · 5
  • CharMar Brown · RBout · 2026-09-21

    Brown is dealing with a lower body injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Joshua Moore · WRout · 2026-09-21

    Moore is battling with an upper body injury, and he will be idle for the remainder of the season.

  • Owen Ruskavich · TEout · 2026-10-01

    Ruskavich is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he is not expected to face against Clemson on Saturday.

  • Luka Gilbert · TEout · 2026-08-11

    Gilbert has been out of commission due to an undisclosed injury, and he will be idle for the remainder of the season

  • Mark Fletcher Jr. · RBQues. · 2026-09-27

    Fletcher Jr is hampered by upper body injury, and it has yet to be established if he will be active against Clemson on Saturday, October 3th

Notre Dame
QBCJ Carr
1197 yds · 13 TD · 1 INT
92.45/729
LBKyngstonn Viliamu-Asa
13 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
91.2
Coverage
72.0
Pressures
8
Pass-rush snaps
19
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
92.14/1796
SLuke Talich
14 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
83.1
Coverage
88.3
Targets allowed
9
Rec allowed
8
Yards allowed
55
Passer rating allowed
52.5
Missed tackles
1
89.611/2969
WRDevin Fitzgerald
1 rec · 20 yds · 0 TD
87.020/2069
RBJonaz Walton
228 yds · 0 TD · 5.8 YPC
84.542/1044
SJoey O'Brien
9 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
72.6
Coverage
80.3
Targets allowed
4
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
12
Passer rating allowed
77.1
Missed tackles
0
80.656/2969
Availability reports · 4
  • Quincy Porter · WRout · 2026-09-28

    Porter is sidelined due to knee injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa · LBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Viliamu-Asa is nursing with a thumb injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Cougars on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Leonard Moore · CBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Moore is dealing with a concussion injury, and it has yet to be established if he will play against BYU on Saturday, Saturday 17th.

  • Blake Hebert · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Hebert is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Cougars on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

MIA
ND
vs
Offense
92.8
#2 of 138
QB
92.4
#5 of 138
83.8
#16 of 138
RB
83.8
#15 of 138
80.8
#8 of 138
WR
82.3
#5 of 138
84.0
#14 of 138
TE
59.4
#126 of 138
77.6
#7 of 138
OL
67.2
#77 of 138
Defense
72.6
#76 of 138
DL
83.8
#3 of 138
71.0
#97 of 138
LB
80.0
#22 of 138
77.2
#14 of 138
DB
80.1
#2 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Miami
opponent
Notre Dame
A+39.0
STAN#106
+51.0H
A+19.1
UNC#60
+11.0A
H+30.4
BC#121
+33.4H