AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Sun Nov 8 · 12:30 AM
#6Away
Miami
0-0 · AVR 77.0
24p
#4Home
Notre Dame
0-0 · AVR 79.4
32p
MIA 29%71% ND
Spread
ND -8.2
Total
56
Moneyline
MIA+246ND-246
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MIA advantageevenND advantage →
MIA throw
even
MIA run
even
ND throw
ND QB #3ND protection #109
MIA +20
ND run
MIA +67

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MIA throws
Cooper Barkate
vs
Leonard Moore
X · MIA
CB1 · ND
87.0
101.6
ND +15
off the edge· hunting Mensah
Samson Okunlola
vs
Boubacar Traore
LT · MIA
EDGE · ND
87.5
88.4
dead even
when MIA runs
Mark Fletcher Jr.
vs
Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa
RB · MIA
MLB · ND
84.5
86.5
dead even
when ND throws
Jordan Faison
vs
Xavier Lucas
X · ND
CB1 · MIA
74.7
85.4
MIA +11
over the middle
Elija Lofton
vs
Luke Talich
TE · MIA
FS · ND
69.0
86.9
ND +18
when ND runs
Aneyas Williams
vs
Kamal Bonner
RB · ND
MLB · MIA
56.9
82.9
MIA +26

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Miami
WRCooper Barkate
87.06/777
DBXavier Lucas
85.442/1427
RBMark Fletcher Jr.
84.59/514
QBDarian Mensah
84.311/308
DBBryce Fitzgerald
83.561/1427
LBKamal Bonner
82.935/878

also out — Hayden Lowe, Luka Gilbert, Jontavius Wyman

Notre Dame
CBLeonard Moore
101.61/1427
QBCJ Carrprobable
95.13/308
SBrauntae Johnson
91.58/1427
SAdon Shuler
86.929/1427
LBKyngstonn Viliamu-Asaprobable
86.516/878
LBDrayk Bowen
82.738/878

also out — Charles Jagusah, Player 2, Matty Augustine (OL), Notre Dame reserve, Quincy Porter (WR), Decision Means Losing, Jackson Hill (RB), Notre Dame football 2027 commit +2 more

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Miami
opponent
Notre Dame
away+14.8
Stanford#96
+35.7home
home+24.2
Boston College#79
+29.8home
away+15.1
North Carolina#61
+20.7away

Projected margin

80% between -9 and 26
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKND +8.295% interval: -15.8 to 32.180% interval: -9.2 to 25.5-9+26MIA wins 29%ND wins 71%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ND 32–25 MIAND 28–49 MIA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesND 32–46 MIA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesND 35–42 MIA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesND 39–39 MIA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesND 42–35 MIA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesND 46–32 MIA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesND 49–28 MIA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesND 53–25 MIA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesND 56–21 MIA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesND 25–46 MIA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesND 28–42 MIA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesND 32–39 MIA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesND 35–35 MIA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesND 39–32 MIA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesND 42–28 MIA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesND 46–25 MIA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesND 49–21 MIA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesND 53–18 MIA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesND 21–42 MIA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesND 25–39 MIA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesND 28–35 MIA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesND 32–32 MIA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesND 35–28 MIA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesND 39–25 MIA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesND 42–21 MIA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesND 46–18 MIA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesND 49–14 MIA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesND 18–39 MIA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesND 21–35 MIA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesND 25–32 MIA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesND 28–28 MIA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesND 32–25 MIA neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesND 35–21 MIA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesND 39–18 MIA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesND 42–14 MIA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesND 46–11 MIA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesND 14–35 MIA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesND 18–32 MIA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesND 21–28 MIA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesND 25–25 MIA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesND 28–21 MIA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesND 32–18 MIA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesND 35–14 MIA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesND 39–11 MIA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesND 42–7 MIA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesND 11–32 MIA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesND 14–28 MIA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesND 18–25 MIA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesND 21–21 MIA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesND 25–18 MIA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesND 28–14 MIA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesND 32–11 MIA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesND 35–7 MIA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesND 39–4 MIA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesND 7–28 MIA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesND 11–25 MIA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesND 14–21 MIA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesND 18–18 MIA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesND 21–14 MIA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesND 25–11 MIA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesND 28–7 MIA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesND 32–4 MIA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesND 35–0 MIA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalMIA +21MIA +7ND +7ND +21ND +35margin →