AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14
#30Away
Florida State
0-0 · AVR 62.6
31p
#33Home
Pittsburgh
0-0 · AVR 60.7
29p
FSU 54%46% PITT
Spread
FSU -1.7
Total
59
Moneyline
FSU-120PITT+120
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← FSU advantageevenPITT advantage →
FSU throw
FSU WR #3FSU protection #74
PITT +9
FSU run
PITT +37
PITT throw
PITT QB #26PITT protection #78
even
PITT run
PITT backs #32
FSU +17

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when FSU throws
Duce Robinson
vs
Shawn Lee Jr.
X · FSU
CB1 · PITT
87.7
84.7
FSU +3
when FSU runs
Quintrevion Wisner
vs
Braylan Lovelace
RB · FSU
MLB · PITT
68.8
89.0
PITT +20
off the edge· hunting Sperry
Xavier Chaplin
vs
Jimmy Scott
LT · FSU
EDGE · PITT
68.0
88.3
PITT +20
when PITT runs
Ja'Kyrian Turner
vs
Blake Nichelson
RB · PITT
MLB · FSU
73.8
79.5
FSU +6
when PITT throws
Bryce Yates
vs
Nehemiah Chandler
X · PITT
CB1 · FSU
55.6
73.6
FSU +18
off the edge· hunting Heintschel
Ryan Baer
vs
Rylan Kennedy
LT · PITT
EDGE · FSU
45.5
67.8
FSU +22

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Florida State
WRDuce Robinson
87.74/777
WRMicahi Danzy
86.98/777
LBBlake Nichelson
79.560/878
LBChris Jones
73.9113/878
DBNehemiah Chandler
73.6168/1427
DBAshlynd Barker
71.8195/1427

also out — Daniel Lyons, Malachi Marshall (QB), DB Transfer, Karson Hobbs, Devin Carter (WR), FSU freshman wide receiver (WR), Mike Norvell (WR), Dexter Carter Speaks +1 more

Pittsburgh
LBBraylan Lovelace
89.012/878
DBShawn Lee Jr.
84.748/1427
LBDeMarco Ward
79.067/878
QBMason Heintschel
77.426/308
DBCruce Brookins
76.7130/1427
RBJa'Kyrian Turner
73.840/514

also out — Keith Gouveia (OL)

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Florida State
opponent
Pittsburgh
away+0.1
Louisville#28
-4.1away
away-10.0
Miami#6
-14.2away
away+11.6
Boston College#79
+7.4away

Projected margin

80% between -19 and 16
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKFSU +1.795% interval: -25.6 to 22.280% interval: -19.1 to 15.7-19+16FSU wins 54%PITT wins 46%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ PITT 28–28 FSUPITT 25–53 FSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesPITT 28–49 FSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesPITT 32–46 FSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesPITT 35–42 FSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesPITT 39–39 FSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesPITT 42–35 FSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesPITT 46–32 FSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesPITT 49–28 FSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesPITT 53–25 FSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesPITT 21–49 FSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesPITT 25–46 FSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesPITT 28–42 FSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesPITT 32–39 FSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesPITT 35–35 FSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesPITT 39–32 FSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesPITT 42–28 FSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesPITT 46–25 FSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesPITT 49–21 FSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPITT 18–46 FSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesPITT 21–42 FSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesPITT 25–39 FSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesPITT 28–35 FSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesPITT 32–32 FSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesPITT 35–28 FSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesPITT 39–25 FSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesPITT 42–21 FSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesPITT 46–18 FSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPITT 14–42 FSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesPITT 18–39 FSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesPITT 21–35 FSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesPITT 25–32 FSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesPITT 28–28 FSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesPITT 32–25 FSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesPITT 35–21 FSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesPITT 39–18 FSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesPITT 42–14 FSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPITT 11–39 FSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesPITT 14–35 FSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesPITT 18–32 FSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesPITT 21–28 FSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesPITT 25–25 FSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesPITT 28–21 FSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesPITT 32–18 FSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesPITT 35–14 FSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesPITT 39–11 FSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPITT 7–35 FSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesPITT 11–32 FSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesPITT 14–28 FSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesPITT 18–25 FSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesPITT 21–21 FSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesPITT 25–18 FSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesPITT 28–14 FSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesPITT 32–11 FSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesPITT 35–7 FSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesPITT 4–32 FSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPITT 7–28 FSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesPITT 11–25 FSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesPITT 14–21 FSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesPITT 18–18 FSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesPITT 21–14 FSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesPITT 25–11 FSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesPITT 28–7 FSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesPITT 32–4 FSU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes77706356494235totalFSU +28FSU +14PKPITT +14PITT +28margin →