AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 5:00 AM
#57Away
Virginia Tech
0-0 · AVR 52.8
17p
#6Home
Miami
0-0 · AVR 77.0
37p
VT 8%92% MIA
Spread
MIA -20.2
Total
54
Moneyline
VT+1093MIA-1093
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← VT advantageevenMIA advantage →
VT throw
MIA +28
VT run
MIA +20
MIA throw
MIA +34
MIA run
MIA +36

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MIA throws
Cooper Barkate
vs
Jaquez White
X · MIA
CB1 · VT
87.0
90.0
VT +3
off the edge· hunting Grunkemeyer
Brody Meadows
vs
Damon Wilson II
LT · VT
EDGE · MIA
73.1
93.8
MIA +21
off the edge· hunting Mensah
Samson Okunlola
vs
Kemari Copeland
LT · MIA
EDGE · VT
87.5
78.8
MIA +9
when VT throws
Que'Sean Brown
vs
Xavier Lucas
X · VT
CB1 · MIA
74.1
85.4
MIA +11
when VT runs
Marcellous Hawkins
vs
Kamal Bonner
RB · VT
MLB · MIA
71.4
82.9
MIA +11
when MIA runs
Mark Fletcher Jr.
vs
Curtis Jones Jr.
RB · MIA
MLB · VT
84.5
68.4
MIA +16

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Virginia Tech
CBJaquez White
90.012/1427
CBCam Chadwick Jr.
75.7146/1427
WRQue'Sean Brown
74.136/777
RBMarcellous Hawkins
71.446/514
LBCurtis Jones Jr.
68.4170/878
TELuke Reynolds
67.216/287

also out — Gabe Williams (LB)

Miami
WRCooper Barkate
87.06/777
DBXavier Lucas
85.442/1427
RBMark Fletcher Jr.
84.59/514
QBDarian Mensah
84.311/308
DBBryce Fitzgerald
83.561/1427
LBKamal Bonner
82.935/878

also out — Hayden Lowe, Luka Gilbert, Jontavius Wyman

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Virginia Tech
opponent
Miami
away+1.4
Boston College#79
+24.2home
away-12.8
Clemson#27
+4.9away
home-3.5
Pittsburgh#33
+14.2home
home+12.3
Stanford#96
+14.8away

Projected margin

80% between 3 and 38
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMIA +20.295% interval: -3.7 to 44.180% interval: 2.8 to 37.6+3+38VT wins 8%MIA wins 92%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MIA 39–18 VTMIA 35–42 VT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMIA 39–39 VT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMIA 42–35 VT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMIA 46–32 VT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMIA 49–28 VT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMIA 53–25 VT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMIA 56–21 VT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMIA 60–18 VT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMIA 63–14 VT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMIA 32–39 VT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMIA 35–35 VT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMIA 39–32 VT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMIA 42–28 VT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMIA 46–25 VT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMIA 49–21 VT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMIA 53–18 VT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMIA 56–14 VT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMIA 60–11 VT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMIA 28–35 VT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMIA 32–32 VT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMIA 35–28 VT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMIA 39–25 VT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMIA 42–21 VT neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMIA 46–18 VT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMIA 49–14 VT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMIA 53–11 VT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMIA 56–7 VT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMIA 25–32 VT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMIA 28–28 VT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMIA 32–25 VT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMIA 35–21 VT neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMIA 39–18 VT neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesMIA 42–14 VT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMIA 46–11 VT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMIA 49–7 VT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMIA 53–4 VT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMIA 21–28 VT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMIA 25–25 VT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMIA 28–21 VT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMIA 32–18 VT neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMIA 35–14 VT neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMIA 39–11 VT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMIA 42–7 VT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMIA 46–4 VT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMIA 49–0 VT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMIA 18–25 VT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMIA 21–21 VT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMIA 25–18 VT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMIA 28–14 VT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMIA 32–11 VT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMIA 35–7 VT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMIA 39–4 VT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMIA 42–0 VT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)MIA 14–21 VT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMIA 18–18 VT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMIA 21–14 VT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMIA 25–11 VT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMIA 28–7 VT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMIA 32–4 VT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMIA 35–0 VT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalVT +7MIA +7MIA +21MIA +35MIA +49margin →