CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 12:00 AM ET
Forecast win probability
VT 8.0%92.0% MIA
Projected margin
MIA by 22.1
Projected total
57
80% outcome range
MIA 4 to MIA 41
Win probability
MIA 92.0%

Current team profiles

Virginia Tech
Miami

When Virginia Tech has the ball

Passing

VT offense
Higher-ranked profile
VT offense
#24
MIA defense
#30
EPA comparison
0.40
#24
0.02
#30
Pass EPA

Rushing

MIA defense
Higher-ranked profile
VT offense
#85
MIA defense
#10
EPA comparison
0.07
#85
-0.15
#10
Rush EPA

Drive success

MIA defense
Higher-ranked profile
VT offense
#43
MIA defense
#16
Success rates
47%
#43
34%
#16
Success rate
More metrics
0.21
#44
-0.06
#19
EPA / play
1.26
#45
1.19
#53
Explosiveness
13%
#31
16%
#70
Havoc

When Miami has the ball

Passing

MIA offense
Higher-ranked profile
VT defense
#84
MIA offense
#1
EPA comparison
0.19
#84
0.74
#1
Pass EPA

Rushing

VT defense
Higher-ranked profile
VT defense
#16
MIA offense
#51
EPA comparison
-0.11
#16
0.15
#51
Rush EPA

Drive success

MIA offense
Higher-ranked profile
VT defense
#15
MIA offense
#1
Success rates
34%
#15
56%
#1
Success rate
More metrics
0.01
#47
0.42
#1
EPA / play
1.34
#113
1.26
#55
Explosiveness
24%
#2
8%
#3
Havoc

Current key players

Virginia Tech
QBBryce Baker
127 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT
85.638/729
TELuke Reynolds
37 rec · 373 yds · 4 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
74.5
Run blocking
66.8
Penalties
0
86.49/1017
LBGeorge Ballance
7 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
88.5
Coverage
63.8
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
2
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
85.237/1796
LBMathieu Lamah
3 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
89.1
Coverage
61.5
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
84.645/1796
DBDQ Smith
10 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
76.6
Coverage
76.5
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
8
Passer rating allowed
100.0
Missed tackles
0
78.193/2969
RBJeffrey Overton Jr.
455 yds · 4 TD · 5.9 YPC
77.9113/1044
Availability reports · 6
  • Kyle Altuner · OGQues. · 2026-10-11

    Altuner is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will suit up against the Yellow Jackets on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Brody Meadows · OGQues. · 2026-10-11

    Meadows is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will suit up against the Yellow Jackets on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Bill Davis · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Davis is dealing with an undisclosed injury and, and he is not expected to play against the Yellow Jackets on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Luke Stuewe · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Stuewe is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will suit up against the Yellow Jackets on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Shamarius Peterkin · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Peterkin is dealing with a foot injury, and it is unknown if he will suit up against the Yellow Jackets on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Takye Heath · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Heath is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will suit up against the Yellow Jackets on Saturday, October 17th.

Miami
QBDarian Mensah
1438 yds · 15 TD · 0 INT
92.82/729
WRMalachi Toney
39 rec · 604 yds · 6 TD
93.03/2069
RBCharMar Brown
97 yds · 1 TD · 7.5 YPC
84.840/1044
TEJack Nickel
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
Run blocking
80.9
Penalties
0
84.014/1017
DBEthan O'Connor
16 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
59.2
Coverage
86.8
Targets allowed
18
Rec allowed
10
Yards allowed
65
Passer rating allowed
40.3
Missed tackles
4
83.930/2969
DBBryce Fitzgerald
13 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
70.5
Coverage
80.3
Targets allowed
16
Rec allowed
9
Yards allowed
75
Passer rating allowed
68.5
Missed tackles
2
79.372/2969
Availability reports · 5
  • CharMar Brown · RBout · 2026-09-21

    Brown is dealing with a lower body injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Joshua Moore · WRout · 2026-09-21

    Moore is battling with an upper body injury, and he will be idle for the remainder of the season.

  • Owen Ruskavich · TEout · 2026-10-01

    Ruskavich is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he is not expected to face against Clemson on Saturday.

  • Luka Gilbert · TEout · 2026-08-11

    Gilbert has been out of commission due to an undisclosed injury, and he will be idle for the remainder of the season

  • Mark Fletcher Jr. · RBQues. · 2026-09-27

    Fletcher Jr is hampered by upper body injury, and it has yet to be established if he will be active against Clemson on Saturday, October 3th

Position units

Position-unit comparison

VT
MIA
vs
Offense
85.6
#35 of 138
QB
92.8
#2 of 138
76.8
#58 of 138
RB
83.8
#16 of 138
66.4
#125 of 138
WR
80.8
#8 of 138
86.4
#9 of 138
TE
84.0
#14 of 138
72.2
#34 of 138
OL
77.6
#7 of 138
Defense
81.8
#7 of 138
DL
72.6
#76 of 138
83.0
#11 of 138
LB
71.0
#97 of 138
71.4
#77 of 138
DB
77.2
#14 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Virginia Tech
opponent
Miami
A-6.0
CLEM#57
+28.0A
H+10.9
STAN#106
+39.0A
A+7.0
BC#121
+30.4H
H-2.0
PITT#30
+16.1H