AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 1 · Sun Sep 6 · 7:30 PM · neutral site
#58Away
Wisconsin
0-0 · AVR 51.9
15p
#4Home
Notre Dame
0-0 · AVR 79.4
33p
WIS 10%90% ND
Spread
ND -18.4
Total
48
Moneyline
WIS+888ND-888
Against the market
WIS +2.1line ND -20.5

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← WIS advantageevenND advantage →
WIS throw
WIS QB #24WIS WR #129
ND +47
WIS run
WIS line #100WIS backs #47
ND +50
ND throw
ND QB #3ND protection #109
ND +23
ND run
WIS +44

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when ND throws
Jordan Faison
vs
Javan Robinson
X · ND
CB1 · WIS
74.7
82.8
WIS +8
when WIS runs
Abu Sama III
vs
Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa
RB · WIS
MLB · ND
69.7
86.5
ND +17
when WIS throws
Shamar Rigby
vs
Leonard Moore
X · WIS
CB1 · ND
44.2
101.6
ND +57
when ND runs
Aneyas Williams
vs
Mason Posa
RB · ND
MLB · WIS
56.9
79.6
WIS +23
over the middle
Grant Stec
vs
Luke Talich
TE · WIS
FS · ND
36.5
86.9
ND +50
off the edge· hunting Joseph
Austin Kawecki
vs
Boubacar Traore
LT · WIS
EDGE · ND
31.5
88.4
ND +57

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Wisconsin
CBJavan Robinson
82.864/1427
SMarvin Burks Jr.
82.269/1427
LBMason Posa
79.659/878
QBColton Joseph
78.524/308
LBSebastian Cheeks
74.7108/878
RBAbu Sama III
69.754/514
Notre Dame
CBLeonard Moore
101.61/1427
QBCJ Carrprobable
95.13/308
SBrauntae Johnson
91.58/1427
SAdon Shuler
86.929/1427
LBKyngstonn Viliamu-Asaprobable
86.516/878
LBDrayk Bowen
82.738/878

also out — Charles Jagusah, Player 2, Matty Augustine (OL), Notre Dame reserve, Quincy Porter (WR), Decision Means Losing, Jackson Hill (RB), Notre Dame football 2027 commit +2 more

Common opponents

2 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Wisconsin
opponent
Notre Dame
away-0.6
Purdue#69
+23.6away
home+4.8
Michigan State#65
+29.0home

Projected margin

80% between -1 and 38
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKND +18.4MKT95% interval: -10 to 4880% interval: -1 to 38-1+38WIS wins 10%ND wins 90%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ND 35–14 WISND 32–39 WIS neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesND 35–35 WIS neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesND 39–32 WIS neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesND 42–28 WIS neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesND 46–25 WIS neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesND 49–21 WIS neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesND 53–18 WIS neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesND 56–14 WIS neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesND 60–11 WIS neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesND 28–35 WIS neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesND 32–32 WIS neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesND 35–28 WIS neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesND 39–25 WIS neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesND 42–21 WIS neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesND 46–18 WIS neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesND 49–14 WIS neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesND 53–11 WIS neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesND 56–7 WIS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesND 25–32 WIS neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesND 28–28 WIS neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesND 32–25 WIS neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesND 35–21 WIS neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesND 39–18 WIS neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesND 42–14 WIS neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesND 46–11 WIS neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesND 49–7 WIS neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesND 53–4 WIS neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesND 21–28 WIS neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesND 25–25 WIS neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesND 28–21 WIS neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesND 32–18 WIS neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesND 35–14 WIS neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesND 39–11 WIS neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesND 42–7 WIS neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesND 46–4 WIS neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesND 49–0 WIS neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesND 18–25 WIS neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesND 21–21 WIS neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesND 25–18 WIS neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesND 28–14 WIS neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesND 32–11 WIS neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesND 35–7 WIS neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesND 39–4 WIS neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesND 42–0 WIS neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)ND 14–21 WIS neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesND 18–18 WIS neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesND 21–14 WIS neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesND 25–11 WIS neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesND 28–7 WIS neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesND 32–4 WIS neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesND 35–0 WIS neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)ND 11–18 WIS neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesND 14–14 WIS neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesND 18–11 WIS neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesND 21–7 WIS neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesND 25–4 WIS neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesND 28–0 WIS neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalWIS +7ND +7ND +21ND +35ND +49margin →