AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 11:30 PM
Megaphone Trophy
#65Away
Michigan State
0-0 · AVR 50.2
15p
#4Home
Notre Dame
0-0 · AVR 79.4
44p
MSU 2%98% ND
Spread
ND -29.0
Total
59
Moneyline
MSU—ND—
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MSU advantageevenND advantage →
MSU throw
MSU QB #138
ND +70
MSU run
MSU line #73MSU backs #18
ND +30
ND throw
ND QB #3ND protection #109
ND +27
ND run
MSU front #98MSU linebackers #13
MSU +34

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MSU runs
Cam Edwards
vs
Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa
RB · MSU
MLB · ND
83.7
86.5
dead even
when ND throws
Jordan Faison
vs
Charles Brantley
X · ND
CB1 · MSU
74.7
85.6
MSU +11
when MSU throws
KK Smith
vs
Leonard Moore
X · MSU
CB1 · ND
54.5
101.6
ND +47
when ND runs
Aneyas Williams
vs
Caleb Wheatland
RB · ND
MLB · MSU
56.9
86.7
MSU +30
over the middle
Jayden Savoury
vs
Luke Talich
TE · MSU
FS · ND
44.5
86.9
ND +42
off the edge· hunting Fancher
Nick Sharpe
vs
Boubacar Traore
LT · MSU
EDGE · ND
42.1
88.4
ND +46

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Michigan State
LBCaleb Wheatland
86.715/878
CBCharles Brantley
85.638/1427
RBCam Edwards
83.713/514
LBDion Crawford
79.757/878
SMichael Richard
77.0125/1427
CBTre Bell
72.8180/1427
Notre Dame
CBLeonard Moore
101.61/1427
QBCJ Carrprobable
95.13/308
SBrauntae Johnson
91.58/1427
SAdon Shuler
86.929/1427
LBKyngstonn Viliamu-Asaprobable
86.516/878
LBDrayk Bowen
82.738/878

also out — Charles Jagusah, Player 2, Matty Augustine (OL), Notre Dame reserve, Quincy Porter (WR), Decision Means Losing, Jackson Hill (RB), Notre Dame football 2027 commit +2 more

Projected margin

80% between 12 and 46
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKND +29.095% interval: 5.1 to 52.980% interval: 11.6 to 46.4+12+46MSU wins 2%ND wins 98%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ND 42–14 MSUND 39–39 MSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesND 42–35 MSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesND 46–32 MSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesND 49–28 MSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesND 53–25 MSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesND 56–21 MSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesND 60–18 MSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesND 63–14 MSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesND 67–11 MSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesND 35–35 MSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesND 39–32 MSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesND 42–28 MSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesND 46–25 MSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesND 49–21 MSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesND 53–18 MSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesND 56–14 MSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesND 60–11 MSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesND 63–7 MSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesND 32–32 MSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesND 35–28 MSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesND 39–25 MSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesND 42–21 MSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesND 46–18 MSU neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesND 49–14 MSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesND 53–11 MSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesND 56–7 MSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesND 60–4 MSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesND 28–28 MSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesND 32–25 MSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesND 35–21 MSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesND 39–18 MSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesND 42–14 MSU neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesND 46–11 MSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesND 49–7 MSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesND 53–4 MSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesND 56–0 MSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesND 25–25 MSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesND 28–21 MSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesND 32–18 MSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesND 35–14 MSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesND 39–11 MSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesND 42–7 MSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesND 46–4 MSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesND 49–0 MSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)ND 21–21 MSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesND 25–18 MSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesND 28–14 MSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesND 32–11 MSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesND 35–7 MSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesND 39–4 MSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesND 42–0 MSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)ND 18–18 MSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesND 21–14 MSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesND 25–11 MSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesND 28–7 MSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesND 32–4 MSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesND 35–0 MSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalPKND +14ND +28ND +42ND +56margin →