CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 7:30 PM ET
Megaphone Trophy
#41Away
Michigan State
2-0 · AVR 66.2
10
Final
#2Home
Notre Dame
2-0 · AVR 84.7
27
Forecast win probability
MSU 7.0%93.0% ND
Projected margin
ND by 23.1
Projected total
55
80% outcome range
ND 3 to ND 43
Win probability
ND 93.0%
FinalMSU 10 · ND 27model had +23.1, off by 6.1

Current team profiles

Michigan State
Notre Dame

When Michigan State has the ball

Passing

ND defense
Higher-ranked profile
MSU offense
#111
ND defense
#34
EPA comparison
0.08
#111
0.05
#34
Pass EPA

Rushing

ND defense
Higher-ranked profile
MSU offense
#110
ND defense
#2
EPA comparison
0.00
#110
-0.23
#2
Rush EPA

Drive success

ND defense
Higher-ranked profile
MSU offense
#69
ND defense
#9
Success rates
44%
#69
33%
#9
Success rate
More metrics
0.02
#117
-0.09
#11
EPA / play
1.06
#133
1.20
#65
Explosiveness
17%
#106
23%
#3
Havoc

When Notre Dame has the ball

Passing

ND offense
Higher-ranked profile
MSU defense
#109
ND offense
#8
EPA comparison
0.29
#109
0.54
#8
Pass EPA

Rushing

ND offense
Higher-ranked profile
MSU defense
#88
ND offense
#19
EPA comparison
0.08
#88
0.24
#19
Rush EPA

Drive success

ND offense
Higher-ranked profile
MSU defense
#95
ND offense
#3
Success rates
43%
#95
53%
#3
Success rate
More metrics
0.18
#114
0.36
#4
EPA / play
1.27
#90
1.15
#107
Explosiveness
13%
#119
10%
#9
Havoc

Current key players

Michigan State
QBAlessio Milivojevic
851 yds · 3 TD · 3 INT
68.2181/729
LBDion Crawford
23 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
90.4
Coverage
68.0
Pressures
2
Pass-rush snaps
5
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
86.132/1796
LBCaleb Wheatland
19 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
55.6
Coverage
89.7
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
9
Missed tackles
6
Forced fumbles
1
77.8122/1796
WRBraylon Collier
2 rec · 23 yds · 0 TD
76.4103/2069
RBCam Edwards
304 yds · 3 TD · 4.8 YPC
74.1191/1044
SDevin Vaught
33 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
91.2
Coverage
58.1
Targets allowed
5
Rec allowed
2
Yards allowed
59
Passer rating allowed
124.2
Missed tackles
2
73.1271/2969
Availability reports · 3
  • Caleb Wheatland · LBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Wheatland is tending to an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Wildcats on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Cam Edwards · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Edwards is dealing with a knee injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Wildcats on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Cam Fancher · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Fancher exited the game with a knee injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Wildcats on Saturday, October 17th.

Notre Dame
QBCJ Carr
1197 yds · 13 TD · 1 INT
92.45/729
LBKyngstonn Viliamu-Asa
13 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
91.2
Coverage
72.0
Pressures
8
Pass-rush snaps
19
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
92.14/1796
SLuke Talich
14 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
83.1
Coverage
88.3
Targets allowed
9
Rec allowed
8
Yards allowed
55
Passer rating allowed
52.5
Missed tackles
1
89.611/2969
WRDevin Fitzgerald
1 rec · 20 yds · 0 TD
87.020/2069
RBJonaz Walton
228 yds · 0 TD · 5.8 YPC
84.542/1044
SJoey O'Brien
9 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
72.6
Coverage
80.3
Targets allowed
4
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
12
Passer rating allowed
77.1
Missed tackles
0
80.656/2969
Availability reports · 4
  • Quincy Porter · WRout · 2026-09-28

    Porter is sidelined due to knee injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa · LBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Viliamu-Asa is nursing with a thumb injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Cougars on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Leonard Moore · CBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Moore is dealing with a concussion injury, and it has yet to be established if he will play against BYU on Saturday, Saturday 17th.

  • Blake Hebert · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Hebert is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Cougars on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

MSU
ND
vs
Offense
68.2
#109 of 138
QB
92.4
#5 of 138
72.8
#99 of 138
RB
83.8
#15 of 138
71.7
#65 of 138
WR
82.3
#5 of 138
70.8
#59 of 138
TE
59.4
#126 of 138
70.5
#49 of 138
OL
67.2
#77 of 138
Defense
72.3
#80 of 138
DL
83.8
#3 of 138
80.2
#19 of 138
LB
80.0
#22 of 138
66.7
#129 of 138
DB
80.1
#2 of 138
Common opponents