Passing
MICH defense
Higher-ranked profile
- IOWA offense
- #66
- MICH defense
- #6
EPA comparison
0.24
#66
-0.11
#6
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 3:30 PM ET
Forecast win probability
IOWA 42.1%57.9% MICH
- Projected margin
- MICH by 3.1
- Projected total
- 43
- 80% outcome range
- IOWA 16 to MICH 21
- Win probability
- MICH 57.9%
FinalIOWA 20 · MICH 19model had +3.1, off by 4.1
Current team profiles
IowaMichiganWhen Iowa has the ball
Rushing
MICH defense
Higher-ranked profile
- IOWA offense
- #30
- MICH defense
- #12
EPA comparison
0.20
#30
-0.14
#12
Rush EPA
Drive success
MICH defense
Higher-ranked profile
- IOWA offense
- #49
- MICH defense
- #7
Success rates
45%
#49
33%
#7
Success rate
More metrics
0.18
#57
-0.12
#6
EPA / play
1.23
#73
1.14
#30
Explosiveness
11%
#14
17%
#49
Havoc
When Michigan has the ball
Passing
MICH offense
Higher-ranked profile
- IOWA defense
- #96
- MICH offense
- #74
EPA comparison
0.24
#96
0.21
#74
Pass EPA
Rushing
IOWA defense
Higher-ranked profile
- IOWA defense
- #6
- MICH offense
- #93
EPA comparison
-0.21
#6
0.04
#93
Rush EPA
Drive success
IOWA defense
Higher-ranked profile
- IOWA defense
- #18
- MICH offense
- #83
Success rates
34%
#18
42%
#83
Success rate
More metrics
-0.02
#36
0.09
#93
EPA / play
1.15
#33
1.15
#109
Explosiveness
17%
#59
16%
#102
Havoc
Current key players
IowaQBJimmy Sullivan
13 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
76.898/729
RBBraeden Jackson
170 yds · 2 TD · 8.9 YPC
88.218/1044
LBJulian Manson
7 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 68.1
- Coverage
- 83.2
- Missed tackles
- 1
- Forced fumbles
- 0
84.941/1796
DBJacob Wallace
13 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 85.3
- Coverage
- 74.0
- Targets allowed
- 14
- Rec allowed
- 9
- Yards allowed
- 142
- Passer rating allowed
- 68.2
- Missed tackles
- 0
81.545/2969
LBCam Buffington
44 tkl · 3.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 83.1
- Coverage
- 76.8
- Pressures
- 8
- Pass-rush snaps
- 15
- Missed tackles
- 6
- Forced fumbles
- 0
81.364/1796
DBXavier Styles
4 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 66.8
- Coverage
- 82.6
- Targets allowed
- 3
- Rec allowed
- 0
- Yards allowed
- 0
- Passer rating allowed
- 39.6
- Missed tackles
- 0
80.063/2969
Availability reports · 1
- Hank Brown · QBQues. · 2026-10-10
Brown is nursing with a shoulder injury, and it has yet to be established if he will play against the Gophers on Saturday, October 24th .
MichiganQBTommy Carr
23 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT
91.111/729
WRJJ Buchanan
24 rec · 446 yds · 4 TD
87.417/2069
LBNathaniel Staehling
25 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 84.3
- Coverage
- 71.7
- Pressures
- 5
- Pass-rush snaps
- 18
- Missed tackles
- 5
- Forced fumbles
- 0
81.963/1796
CBJyaire Hill
25 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 66.0
- Coverage
- 81.3
- Targets allowed
- 11
- Rec allowed
- 7
- Yards allowed
- 69
- Passer rating allowed
- 73.7
- Missed tackles
- 4
78.583/2969
LBMax Alford
5 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 82.5
- Coverage
- 61.6
- Pressures
- 0
- Pass-rush snaps
- 2
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
77.3130/1796
SJacob Oden
2 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 69.2
- Coverage
- 71.0
- Targets allowed
- 1
- Rec allowed
- 1
- Yards allowed
- -3
- Passer rating allowed
- 79.2
- Missed tackles
- 0
74.8201/2969
Availability reports · 3
- Andrew Sprague · OGout · 2026-09-26
Sprague is sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and is not expected to play against the Hawkeyes on Saturday.
- John Henry Daley · DLQues. · 2026-09-28
Daley is dealing with a lower body injury, and it is unclear if he will suit up against the Minnesota on Tuesday.
- Logan Forbes · WRQues. · 2026-09-20
Forbes is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face Iowa on Saturday.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
IOWAIowa
MICHMichigan
vs
Offense
76.8
#75 of 138
QB
Quarterback
91.1
#10 of 138
80.8
#33 of 138
RB
Running backs
67.4
#132 of 138
68.1
#108 of 138
WR
Receivers
72.0
#59 of 138
74.4
#41 of 138
TE
Tight ends
62.1
#105 of 138
79.1
#5 of 138
OL
Offensive line
73.6
#24 of 138
Defense
74.3
#62 of 138
DL
Defensive line
80.6
#14 of 138
81.6
#13 of 138
LB
Linebackers
78.0
#36 of 138
75.4
#29 of 138
DB
Secondary
74.6
#39 of 138
Common opponents
Common opponents
Iowa
opponent
Michigan
Aaway+8.8
MINNMinnesota#54-6.0Aaway
Hhome-17.0
OSUOhio State#2-19.4Aaway