AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 4:00 AM
#22Away
Iowa
0-0 · AVR 67.0
22p
#13Home
Michigan
0-0 · AVR 73.3
29p
IOWA 31%69% MICH
Spread
MICH -7.5
Total
51
Moneyline
IOWA+226MICH-226
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← IOWA advantageevenMICH advantage →
IOWA throw
IOWA protection #5
MICH +48
IOWA run
MICH linebackers #95
IOWA +23
MICH throw
IOWA pass rush #76
MICH +19
MICH run
MICH +43

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Hecklinski
Jack Dotzler
vs
John Henry Daley
LT · IOWA
EDGE · MICH
91.6
107.8
MICH +16
when MICH throws
Andrew Marsh
vs
Zach Lutmer
X · MICH
CB1 · IOWA
84.8
91.9
IOWA +7
off the edge· hunting Underwood
Nathan Efobi
vs
Luke Gaffney
LT · MICH
EDGE · IOWA
88.1
68.5
MICH +20
when MICH runs
Jordan Marshall
vs
Jayden Montgomery
RB · MICH
MLB · IOWA
80.1
62.0
MICH +18
when IOWA runs
Kamari Moulton
vs
Troy Bowles
RB · IOWA
MLB · MICH
74.1
65.7
IOWA +8
over the middle
DJ Vonnahme
vs
Mason Curtis
TE · IOWA
FS · MICH
72.6
67.2
IOWA +5

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Iowa
DBZach Lutmer
91.96/1427
DBTyler Browndoubtful
84.254/1427
DBDeshaun Lee
77.2122/1427
RBKamari Moulton
74.138/514
TEDJ Vonnahme
72.68/287
LBJayden Montgomery
62.0253/878
Michigan
CBSmith Snowden
88.120/1427
WRAndrew Marsh
84.815/777
QBBryce Underwood
84.012/308
WRJJ Buchanan
82.318/777
CBJyaire Hill
80.687/1427
RBJordan Marshall
80.122/514

also out — QB (QB), Former Michigan sacks leader, RB (RB), Ace Hamilton (OL), Andrew Babalola (OL), Freshman Lineman (OL), Michigan Football Freshman Lineman (OL), Michigan freshman +5 more

Common opponents

2 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Iowa
opponent
Michigan
away+8.1
Minnesota#54
+13.1away
home-15.2
Ohio State#1
-15.2away

Projected margin

80% between -10 and 25
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMICH +7.595% interval: -16.4 to 31.480% interval: -9.9 to 24.9-10+25IOWA wins 31%MICH wins 69%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MICH 28–21 IOWAMICH 25–46 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMICH 28–42 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMICH 32–39 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMICH 35–35 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMICH 39–32 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMICH 42–28 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMICH 46–25 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMICH 49–21 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMICH 53–18 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMICH 21–42 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMICH 25–39 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMICH 28–35 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMICH 32–32 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMICH 35–28 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMICH 39–25 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMICH 42–21 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMICH 46–18 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMICH 49–14 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMICH 18–39 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMICH 21–35 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMICH 25–32 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMICH 28–28 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMICH 32–25 IOWA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMICH 35–21 IOWA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMICH 39–18 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMICH 42–14 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMICH 46–11 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMICH 14–35 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMICH 18–32 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMICH 21–28 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMICH 25–25 IOWA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMICH 28–21 IOWA neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesMICH 32–18 IOWA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMICH 35–14 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMICH 39–11 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMICH 42–7 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMICH 11–32 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMICH 14–28 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMICH 18–25 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMICH 21–21 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMICH 25–18 IOWA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMICH 28–14 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMICH 32–11 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMICH 35–7 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMICH 39–4 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMICH 7–28 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMICH 11–25 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMICH 14–21 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMICH 18–18 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMICH 21–14 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMICH 25–11 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMICH 28–7 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMICH 32–4 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMICH 35–0 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMICH 4–25 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMICH 7–21 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMICH 11–18 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMICH 14–14 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMICH 18–11 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMICH 21–7 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMICH 25–4 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMICH 28–0 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalIOWA +21IOWA +7MICH +7MICH +21MICH +35margin →