AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 4:00 AM
#1Away
Ohio State
0-0 · AVR 85.7
33p
#22Home
Iowa
0-0 · AVR 67.0
17p
OSU 85%15% IOWA
Spread
OSU -15.2
Total
50
Moneyline
OSU-552IOWA+552
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← OSU advantageevenIOWA advantage →
OSU throw
IOWA pass rush #76
OSU +21
OSU run
OSU +43
IOWA throw
IOWA protection #5
OSU +34
IOWA run
IOWA +5

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when OSU throws
Jeremiah Smith
vs
Zach Lutmer
X · OSU
CB1 · IOWA
96.0
91.9
OSU +4
off the edge· hunting Hecklinski
Jack Dotzler
vs
Kenyatta Jackson Jr.
LT · IOWA
EDGE · OSU
91.6
95.4
OSU +4
when IOWA runs
Kamari Moulton
vs
Christian Alliegro
RB · IOWA
MLB · OSU
74.1
79.4
OSU +5
off the edge· hunting Sayin
Austin Siereveld
vs
Luke Gaffney
LT · OSU
EDGE · IOWA
81.7
68.5
OSU +13
when OSU runs
Bo Jackson
vs
Jayden Montgomery
RB · OSU
MLB · IOWA
84.6
62.0
OSU +23
over the middle
DJ Vonnahme
vs
Ryan Rudzinski
TE · IOWA
FS · OSU
72.6
59.1
IOWA +13

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Ohio State
WRJeremiah Smith
96.01/777
QBJulian Sayin
86.67/308
RBBo Jackson
84.68/514
LBChristian Alliegro
79.461/878
CBJermaine Mathews Jr.
69.4253/1427
LBPayton Pierce
67.8180/878

also out — Legend Bey (RB), Ohio State OL

Iowa
DBZach Lutmer
91.96/1427
DBTyler Browndoubtful
84.254/1427
DBDeshaun Lee
77.2122/1427
RBKamari Moulton
74.138/514
TEDJ Vonnahme
72.68/287
LBJayden Montgomery
62.0253/878

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Ohio State
opponent
Iowa
home+26.1
Illinois#35
+3.4away
home+25.4
Northwestern#37
+2.7away
home+15.2
Michigan#13
-7.5away
away+21.5
Nebraska#41
+8.8home

Projected margin

80% between -33 and 2
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKOSU +15.295% interval: -39.1 to 8.780% interval: -32.6 to 2.2-33+2OSU wins 85%IOWA wins 15%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ OSU 32–18 IOWAIOWA 14–56 OSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesIOWA 18–53 OSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesIOWA 21–49 OSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesIOWA 25–46 OSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesIOWA 28–42 OSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesIOWA 32–39 OSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesIOWA 35–35 OSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesIOWA 39–32 OSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesIOWA 42–28 OSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesIOWA 11–53 OSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesIOWA 14–49 OSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesIOWA 18–46 OSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesIOWA 21–42 OSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesIOWA 25–39 OSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesIOWA 28–35 OSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesIOWA 32–32 OSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesIOWA 35–28 OSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesIOWA 39–25 OSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesIOWA 7–49 OSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesIOWA 11–46 OSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesIOWA 14–42 OSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesIOWA 18–39 OSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesIOWA 21–35 OSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesIOWA 25–32 OSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesIOWA 28–28 OSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesIOWA 32–25 OSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesIOWA 35–21 OSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesIOWA 4–46 OSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesIOWA 7–42 OSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesIOWA 11–39 OSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesIOWA 14–35 OSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesIOWA 18–32 OSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesIOWA 21–28 OSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesIOWA 25–25 OSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesIOWA 28–21 OSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesIOWA 32–18 OSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesIOWA 0–42 OSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesIOWA 4–39 OSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesIOWA 7–35 OSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesIOWA 11–32 OSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesIOWA 14–28 OSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesIOWA 18–25 OSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesIOWA 21–21 OSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesIOWA 25–18 OSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesIOWA 28–14 OSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)IOWA 0–35 OSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesIOWA 4–32 OSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesIOWA 7–28 OSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesIOWA 11–25 OSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesIOWA 14–21 OSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesIOWA 18–18 OSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesIOWA 21–14 OSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesIOWA 25–11 OSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)IOWA 0–28 OSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesIOWA 4–25 OSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesIOWA 7–21 OSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesIOWA 11–18 OSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesIOWA 14–14 OSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesIOWA 18–11 OSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesIOWA 21–7 OSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes70635649423528totalOSU +42OSU +28OSU +14PKIOWA +14margin →