AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 4:00 AM
#65Away
Michigan State
0-0 · AVR 50.2
24p
#58Home
Wisconsin
0-0 · AVR 51.9
29p
MSU 38%62% WIS
Spread
WIS -4.8
Total
53
Moneyline
MSU+166WIS-166
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MSU advantageevenWIS advantage →
MSU throw
MSU QB #138
WIS +27
MSU run
MSU line #73MSU backs #18
WIS +8
WIS throw
WIS QB #24WIS WR #129
even
WIS run
WIS line #100WIS backs #47
MSU +19

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MSU runs
Cam Edwards
vs
Mason Posa
RB · MSU
MLB · WIS
83.7
79.6
MSU +4
when WIS runs
Abu Sama III
vs
Caleb Wheatland
RB · WIS
MLB · MSU
69.7
86.7
MSU +17
when MSU throws
KK Smith
vs
Javan Robinson
X · MSU
CB1 · WIS
54.5
82.8
WIS +28
when WIS throws
Shamar Rigby
vs
Charles Brantley
X · WIS
CB1 · MSU
44.2
85.6
MSU +41
off the edge· hunting Fancher
Nick Sharpe
vs
Junior Poyser
LT · MSU
EDGE · WIS
42.1
79.0
WIS +37
off the edge· hunting Joseph
Austin Kawecki
vs
Kenny Soares Jr.
LT · WIS
EDGE · MSU
31.5
68.5
MSU +37

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Michigan State
LBCaleb Wheatland
86.715/878
CBCharles Brantley
85.638/1427
RBCam Edwards
83.713/514
LBDion Crawford
79.757/878
SMichael Richard
77.0125/1427
CBTre Bell
72.8180/1427
Wisconsin
CBJavan Robinson
82.864/1427
SMarvin Burks Jr.
82.269/1427
LBMason Posa
79.659/878
QBColton Joseph
78.524/308
LBSebastian Cheeks
74.7108/878
RBAbu Sama III
69.754/514

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Michigan State
opponent
Wisconsin
away-29.0
Notre Dame#4
-18.4neutral
away-7.8
Rutgers#48
-0.5home
away-6.8
UCLA#53
-4.5away
home+10.3
Eastern Michigan#112
+12.6home

Projected margin

80% between -13 and 22
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKWIS +4.895% interval: -19.1 to 28.780% interval: -12.6 to 22.2-13+22MSU wins 38%WIS wins 62%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ WIS 32–25 MSUWIS 28–49 MSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWIS 32–46 MSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWIS 35–42 MSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWIS 39–39 MSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWIS 42–35 MSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWIS 46–32 MSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWIS 49–28 MSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWIS 53–25 MSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWIS 56–21 MSU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesWIS 25–46 MSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWIS 28–42 MSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWIS 32–39 MSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWIS 35–35 MSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWIS 39–32 MSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWIS 42–28 MSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWIS 46–25 MSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWIS 49–21 MSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWIS 53–18 MSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWIS 21–42 MSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWIS 25–39 MSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWIS 28–35 MSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWIS 32–32 MSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWIS 35–28 MSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesWIS 39–25 MSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWIS 42–21 MSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWIS 46–18 MSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWIS 49–14 MSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWIS 18–39 MSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWIS 21–35 MSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWIS 25–32 MSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWIS 28–28 MSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesWIS 32–25 MSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesWIS 35–21 MSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWIS 39–18 MSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWIS 42–14 MSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWIS 46–11 MSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWIS 14–35 MSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWIS 18–32 MSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWIS 21–28 MSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWIS 25–25 MSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesWIS 28–21 MSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesWIS 32–18 MSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWIS 35–14 MSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWIS 39–11 MSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWIS 42–7 MSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWIS 11–32 MSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWIS 14–28 MSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWIS 18–25 MSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWIS 21–21 MSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWIS 25–18 MSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesWIS 28–14 MSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWIS 32–11 MSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWIS 35–7 MSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWIS 39–4 MSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWIS 7–28 MSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWIS 11–25 MSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWIS 14–21 MSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWIS 18–18 MSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWIS 21–14 MSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWIS 25–11 MSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWIS 28–7 MSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWIS 32–4 MSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWIS 35–0 MSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalMSU +21MSU +7WIS +7WIS +21WIS +35margin →