Passing
WIS defense
Higher-ranked profile
- MSU offense
- #111
- WIS defense
- #1
EPA comparison
0.08
#111
-0.16
#1
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 12:30 PM ET
Forecast win probability
MSU 36.3%63.7% WIS
- Projected margin
- WIS by 4.8
- Projected total
- 44
- 80% outcome range
- MSU 14 to WIS 23
- Win probability
- WIS 63.7%
FinalMSU 3 · WIS 31model had +4.8, off by 23.2
Current team profiles
Michigan StateWisconsinWhen Michigan State has the ball
Rushing
WIS defense
Higher-ranked profile
- MSU offense
- #110
- WIS defense
- #63
EPA comparison
0.00
#110
0.03
#63
Rush EPA
Drive success
WIS defense
Higher-ranked profile
- MSU offense
- #69
- WIS defense
- #22
Success rates
44%
#69
35%
#22
Success rate
More metrics
0.02
#117
-0.12
#5
EPA / play
1.06
#133
0.96
#2
Explosiveness
17%
#106
16%
#72
Havoc
When Wisconsin has the ball
Passing
WIS offense
Higher-ranked profile
- MSU defense
- #109
- WIS offense
- #74
EPA comparison
0.29
#109
0.21
#74
Pass EPA
Rushing
WIS offense
Higher-ranked profile
- MSU defense
- #88
- WIS offense
- #35
EPA comparison
0.08
#88
0.19
#35
Rush EPA
Drive success
MSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
- MSU defense
- #95
- WIS offense
- #105
Success rates
43%
#95
40%
#105
Success rate
More metrics
0.18
#114
0.17
#66
EPA / play
1.27
#90
1.47
#2
Explosiveness
13%
#119
15%
#74
Havoc
Current key players
Michigan StateQBAlessio Milivojevic
851 yds · 3 TD · 3 INT
68.2181/729
LBDion Crawford
23 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 90.4
- Coverage
- 68.0
- Pressures
- 2
- Pass-rush snaps
- 5
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
86.132/1796
LBCaleb Wheatland
19 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 55.6
- Coverage
- 89.7
- Pressures
- 1
- Pass-rush snaps
- 9
- Missed tackles
- 6
- Forced fumbles
- 1
77.8122/1796
WRBraylon Collier
2 rec · 23 yds · 0 TD
76.4103/2069
RBCam Edwards
304 yds · 3 TD · 4.8 YPC
74.1191/1044
SDevin Vaught
33 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 91.2
- Coverage
- 58.1
- Targets allowed
- 5
- Rec allowed
- 2
- Yards allowed
- 59
- Passer rating allowed
- 124.2
- Missed tackles
- 2
73.1271/2969
Availability reports · 3
- Caleb Wheatland · LBQues. · 2026-10-11
Wheatland is tending to an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Wildcats on Saturday, October 17th.
- Cam Edwards · RBQues. · 2026-10-11
Edwards is dealing with a knee injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Wildcats on Saturday, October 17th.
- Cam Fancher · QBQues. · 2026-10-11
Fancher exited the game with a knee injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Wildcats on Saturday, October 17th.
WisconsinQBRyan Hopkins
— yds · — TD · — INT
71.5144/729
LBMason Posa
40 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 91.5
- Coverage
- 81.0
- Pressures
- 6
- Pass-rush snaps
- 29
- Missed tackles
- 2
- Forced fumbles
- 0
89.216/1796
LBCooper Catalano
45 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 89.8
- Coverage
- 76.1
- Pressures
- 4
- Pass-rush snaps
- 10
- Missed tackles
- 4
- Forced fumbles
- 0
86.827/1796
TEJacob Harris
13 rec · 238 yds · 3 TD
Player detail
- Pass blocking
- 71.7
- Run blocking
- 77.1
- Penalties
- 2
84.412/1017
WRTyrell Henry
26 rec · 339 yds · 1 TD
82.437/2069
SMatthew Jung
32 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 75.2
- Coverage
- 75.5
- Targets allowed
- 13
- Rec allowed
- 10
- Yards allowed
- 133
- Passer rating allowed
- 76.8
- Missed tackles
- 5
76.9131/2969
Availability reports · 4
- Abu Sama III · RBQues. · 2026-10-03
Sama III is nursing an upper body injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against UCLA on Saturday, October 17th.
- Mason Lane · RBQues. · 2026-10-08
Lane is tending to an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will play against UCLA on Saturday, October 17th.
- Danny O'Neil · QBQues. · 2026-10-03
O'Neil is managing a lower body injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be active against UCLA on Saturday, October 17th.
- Jaylon Domingeaux · WRQues. · 2026-10-03
Domingeaux is tending to an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be active against UCLA on Saturday, October 17th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
MSUMichigan State
WISWisconsin
vs
Offense
68.2
#109 of 138
QB
Quarterback
71.5
#97 of 138
72.8
#99 of 138
RB
Running backs
72.8
#100 of 138
71.7
#65 of 138
WR
Receivers
71.6
#66 of 138
70.8
#59 of 138
TE
Tight ends
84.4
#12 of 138
70.5
#49 of 138
OL
Offensive line
72.3
#31 of 138
Defense
72.3
#80 of 138
DL
Defensive line
70.3
#103 of 138
80.2
#19 of 138
LB
Linebackers
86.8
#1 of 138
66.7
#129 of 138
DB
Secondary
73.6
#48 of 138
Common opponents
Common opponents
Michigan State
opponent
Wisconsin
Hhome+28.0
EMUEastern Michigan#131+44.0Hhome
Aaway-17.0
NDNotre Dame#1-28.0Nneutral
Aaway-1.2
RUTGRutgers#89+8.1Hhome
Aaway-10.7
UCLAUCLA#24-6.7Aaway