AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 4:00 AM
Heartland Trophy
#58Away
Wisconsin
0-0 · AVR 51.9
17p
#22Home
Iowa
0-0 · AVR 67.0
32p
WIS 14%86% IOWA
Spread
IOWA -15.4
Total
49
Moneyline
WIS+592IOWA-592
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← WIS advantageevenIOWA advantage →
WIS throw
WIS QB #24WIS WR #129
IOWA +25
WIS run
WIS line #100WIS backs #47
even
IOWA throw
IOWA protection #5
WIS +17
IOWA run
IOWA +13

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Hecklinski
Jack Dotzler
vs
Junior Poyser
LT · IOWA
EDGE · WIS
91.6
79.0
IOWA +13
when IOWA runs
Kamari Moulton
vs
Mason Posa
RB · IOWA
MLB · WIS
74.1
79.6
WIS +5
when WIS throws
Shamar Rigby
vs
Zach Lutmer
X · WIS
CB1 · IOWA
44.2
91.9
IOWA +48
when WIS runs
Abu Sama III
vs
Jayden Montgomery
RB · WIS
MLB · IOWA
69.7
62.0
WIS +8
when IOWA throws
Reece Vander Zee
vs
Javan Robinson
X · IOWA
CB1 · WIS
48.0
82.8
WIS +35
over the middle
DJ Vonnahme
vs
Bryce West
TE · IOWA
FS · WIS
72.6
43.8
IOWA +29

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Wisconsin
CBJavan Robinson
82.864/1427
SMarvin Burks Jr.
82.269/1427
LBMason Posa
79.659/878
QBColton Joseph
78.524/308
LBSebastian Cheeks
74.7108/878
RBAbu Sama III
69.754/514
Iowa
DBZach Lutmer
91.96/1427
DBTyler Browndoubtful
84.254/1427
DBDeshaun Lee
77.2122/1427
RBKamari Moulton
74.138/514
TEDJ Vonnahme
72.68/287
LBJayden Montgomery
62.0253/878

Common opponents

2 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Wisconsin
opponent
Iowa
away-0.6
Purdue#69
+17.3home
home+0.2
Minnesota#54
+8.1away

Projected margin

80% between -2 and 33
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKIOWA +15.495% interval: -8.5 to 39.380% interval: -2 to 32.8-2+33WIS wins 14%IOWA wins 86%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ IOWA 32–18 WISIOWA 28–42 WIS neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesIOWA 32–39 WIS neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesIOWA 35–35 WIS neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesIOWA 39–32 WIS neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesIOWA 42–28 WIS neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesIOWA 46–25 WIS neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesIOWA 49–21 WIS neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesIOWA 53–18 WIS neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesIOWA 56–14 WIS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesIOWA 25–39 WIS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesIOWA 28–35 WIS neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesIOWA 32–32 WIS neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesIOWA 35–28 WIS neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesIOWA 39–25 WIS neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesIOWA 42–21 WIS neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesIOWA 46–18 WIS neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesIOWA 49–14 WIS neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesIOWA 53–11 WIS neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesIOWA 21–35 WIS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesIOWA 25–32 WIS neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesIOWA 28–28 WIS neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesIOWA 32–25 WIS neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesIOWA 35–21 WIS neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesIOWA 39–18 WIS neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesIOWA 42–14 WIS neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesIOWA 46–11 WIS neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesIOWA 49–7 WIS neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesIOWA 18–32 WIS neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesIOWA 21–28 WIS neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesIOWA 25–25 WIS neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesIOWA 28–21 WIS neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesIOWA 32–18 WIS neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesIOWA 35–14 WIS neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesIOWA 39–11 WIS neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesIOWA 42–7 WIS neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesIOWA 46–4 WIS neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesIOWA 14–28 WIS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesIOWA 18–25 WIS neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesIOWA 21–21 WIS neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesIOWA 25–18 WIS neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesIOWA 28–14 WIS neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesIOWA 32–11 WIS neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesIOWA 35–7 WIS neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesIOWA 39–4 WIS neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesIOWA 42–0 WIS neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesIOWA 11–25 WIS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesIOWA 14–21 WIS neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesIOWA 18–18 WIS neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesIOWA 21–14 WIS neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesIOWA 25–11 WIS neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesIOWA 28–7 WIS neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesIOWA 32–4 WIS neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesIOWA 35–0 WIS neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)IOWA 7–21 WIS neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesIOWA 11–18 WIS neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesIOWA 14–14 WIS neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesIOWA 18–11 WIS neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesIOWA 21–7 WIS neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesIOWA 25–4 WIS neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesIOWA 28–0 WIS neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalWIS +14PKIOWA +14IOWA +28IOWA +42margin →