AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 5:00 AM
Paul Bunyan Trophy
#65Away
Michigan State
0-0 · AVR 50.2
16p
#13Home
Michigan
0-0 · AVR 73.3
39p
MSU 6%94% MICH
Spread
MICH -22.7
Total
55
Moneyline
MSU+1534MICH-1534
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MSU advantageevenMICH advantage →
MSU throw
MSU QB #138
MICH +57
MSU run
MSU line #73MSU backs #18
even
MICH throw
MICH +44
MICH run
MSU front #98MSU linebackers #13
MICH +26

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MICH throws
Andrew Marsh
vs
Charles Brantley
X · MICH
CB1 · MSU
84.8
85.6
dead even
when MICH runs
Jordan Marshall
vs
Caleb Wheatland
RB · MICH
MLB · MSU
80.1
86.7
MSU +7
off the edge· hunting Underwood
Nathan Efobi
vs
Kenny Soares Jr.
LT · MICH
EDGE · MSU
88.1
68.5
MICH +20
off the edge· hunting Fancher
Nick Sharpe
vs
John Henry Daley
LT · MSU
EDGE · MICH
42.1
107.8
MICH +66
when MSU runs
Cam Edwards
vs
Troy Bowles
RB · MSU
MLB · MICH
83.7
65.7
MSU +18
when MSU throws
KK Smith
vs
Smith Snowden
X · MSU
CB1 · MICH
54.5
88.1
MICH +34

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Michigan State
LBCaleb Wheatland
86.715/878
CBCharles Brantley
85.638/1427
RBCam Edwards
83.713/514
LBDion Crawford
79.757/878
SMichael Richard
77.0125/1427
CBTre Bell
72.8180/1427
Michigan
CBSmith Snowden
88.120/1427
WRAndrew Marsh
84.815/777
QBBryce Underwood
84.012/308
WRJJ Buchanan
82.318/777
CBJyaire Hill
80.687/1427
RBJordan Marshall
80.122/514

also out — QB (QB), Former Michigan sacks leader, RB (RB), Ace Hamilton (OL), Andrew Babalola (OL), Freshman Lineman (OL), Michigan Football Freshman Lineman (OL), Michigan freshman +5 more

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Michigan State
opponent
Michigan
away-6.8
UCLA#53
+18.4home
away-7.8
Rutgers#48
+12.4away
home-27.9
Oregon#2
-12.7away

Projected margin

80% between 5 and 40
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMICH +22.795% interval: -1.2 to 46.680% interval: 5.3 to 40.1+5+40MSU wins 6%MICH wins 94%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MICH 39–18 MSUMICH 35–42 MSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMICH 39–39 MSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMICH 42–35 MSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMICH 46–32 MSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMICH 49–28 MSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMICH 53–25 MSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMICH 56–21 MSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMICH 60–18 MSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMICH 63–14 MSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMICH 32–39 MSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMICH 35–35 MSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMICH 39–32 MSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMICH 42–28 MSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMICH 46–25 MSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMICH 49–21 MSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMICH 53–18 MSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMICH 56–14 MSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMICH 60–11 MSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMICH 28–35 MSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMICH 32–32 MSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMICH 35–28 MSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMICH 39–25 MSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMICH 42–21 MSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMICH 46–18 MSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMICH 49–14 MSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMICH 53–11 MSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMICH 56–7 MSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMICH 25–32 MSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMICH 28–28 MSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMICH 32–25 MSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMICH 35–21 MSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMICH 39–18 MSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesMICH 42–14 MSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMICH 46–11 MSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMICH 49–7 MSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMICH 53–4 MSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMICH 21–28 MSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMICH 25–25 MSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMICH 28–21 MSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMICH 32–18 MSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMICH 35–14 MSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMICH 39–11 MSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMICH 42–7 MSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMICH 46–4 MSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMICH 49–0 MSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMICH 18–25 MSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMICH 21–21 MSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMICH 25–18 MSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMICH 28–14 MSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMICH 32–11 MSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMICH 35–7 MSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMICH 39–4 MSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMICH 42–0 MSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)MICH 14–21 MSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMICH 18–18 MSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMICH 21–14 MSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMICH 25–11 MSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMICH 28–7 MSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMICH 32–4 MSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMICH 35–0 MSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalMSU +7MICH +7MICH +21MICH +35MICH +49margin →