Passing
MICH defense
Higher-ranked profile
- MSU offense
- #111
- MICH defense
- #6
EPA comparison
0.08
#111
-0.11
#6
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 12:00 AM ET
Paul Bunyan Trophy
Forecast win probability
MSU 21.7%78.3% MICH
- Projected margin
- MICH by 12.3
- Projected total
- 49
- 80% outcome range
- MSU 6 to MICH 31
- Win probability
- MICH 78.3%
Current team profiles
Michigan StateMichiganWhen Michigan State has the ball
Rushing
MICH defense
Higher-ranked profile
- MSU offense
- #110
- MICH defense
- #12
EPA comparison
0.00
#110
-0.14
#12
Rush EPA
Drive success
MICH defense
Higher-ranked profile
- MSU offense
- #69
- MICH defense
- #7
Success rates
44%
#69
33%
#7
Success rate
More metrics
0.02
#117
-0.12
#6
EPA / play
1.06
#133
1.14
#30
Explosiveness
17%
#106
17%
#49
Havoc
When Michigan has the ball
Passing
MICH offense
Higher-ranked profile
- MSU defense
- #109
- MICH offense
- #74
EPA comparison
0.29
#109
0.21
#74
Pass EPA
Rushing
MSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
- MSU defense
- #88
- MICH offense
- #93
EPA comparison
0.08
#88
0.04
#93
Rush EPA
Drive success
MICH offense
Higher-ranked profile
- MSU defense
- #95
- MICH offense
- #83
Success rates
43%
#95
42%
#83
Success rate
More metrics
0.18
#114
0.09
#93
EPA / play
1.27
#90
1.15
#109
Explosiveness
13%
#119
16%
#102
Havoc
Current key players
Michigan StateQBAlessio Milivojevic
851 yds · 3 TD · 3 INT
68.2181/729
LBDion Crawford
23 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 90.4
- Coverage
- 68.0
- Pressures
- 2
- Pass-rush snaps
- 5
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
86.132/1796
LBCaleb Wheatland
19 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 55.6
- Coverage
- 89.7
- Pressures
- 1
- Pass-rush snaps
- 9
- Missed tackles
- 6
- Forced fumbles
- 1
77.8122/1796
WRBraylon Collier
2 rec · 23 yds · 0 TD
76.4103/2069
RBCam Edwards
304 yds · 3 TD · 4.8 YPC
74.1191/1044
SDevin Vaught
33 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 91.2
- Coverage
- 58.1
- Targets allowed
- 5
- Rec allowed
- 2
- Yards allowed
- 59
- Passer rating allowed
- 124.2
- Missed tackles
- 2
73.1271/2969
Availability reports · 3
- Caleb Wheatland · LBQues. · 2026-10-11
Wheatland is tending to an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Wildcats on Saturday, October 17th.
- Cam Edwards · RBQues. · 2026-10-11
Edwards is dealing with a knee injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Wildcats on Saturday, October 17th.
- Cam Fancher · QBQues. · 2026-10-11
Fancher exited the game with a knee injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Wildcats on Saturday, October 17th.
MichiganQBTommy Carr
23 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT
91.111/729
WRJJ Buchanan
24 rec · 446 yds · 4 TD
87.417/2069
LBNathaniel Staehling
25 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 84.3
- Coverage
- 71.7
- Pressures
- 5
- Pass-rush snaps
- 18
- Missed tackles
- 5
- Forced fumbles
- 0
81.963/1796
CBJyaire Hill
25 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 66.0
- Coverage
- 81.3
- Targets allowed
- 11
- Rec allowed
- 7
- Yards allowed
- 69
- Passer rating allowed
- 73.7
- Missed tackles
- 4
78.583/2969
LBMax Alford
5 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 82.5
- Coverage
- 61.6
- Pressures
- 0
- Pass-rush snaps
- 2
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
77.3130/1796
SJacob Oden
2 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 69.2
- Coverage
- 71.0
- Targets allowed
- 1
- Rec allowed
- 1
- Yards allowed
- -3
- Passer rating allowed
- 79.2
- Missed tackles
- 0
74.8201/2969
Availability reports · 3
- Andrew Sprague · OGout · 2026-09-26
Sprague is sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and is not expected to play against the Hawkeyes on Saturday.
- John Henry Daley · DLQues. · 2026-09-28
Daley is dealing with a lower body injury, and it is unclear if he will suit up against the Minnesota on Tuesday.
- Logan Forbes · WRQues. · 2026-09-20
Forbes is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face Iowa on Saturday.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
MSUMichigan State
MICHMichigan
vs
Offense
68.2
#109 of 138
QB
Quarterback
91.1
#10 of 138
72.8
#99 of 138
RB
Running backs
67.4
#132 of 138
71.7
#65 of 138
WR
Receivers
72.0
#59 of 138
70.8
#59 of 138
TE
Tight ends
62.1
#105 of 138
70.5
#49 of 138
OL
Offensive line
73.6
#24 of 138
Defense
72.3
#80 of 138
DL
Defensive line
80.6
#14 of 138
80.2
#19 of 138
LB
Linebackers
78.0
#36 of 138
66.7
#129 of 138
DB
Secondary
74.6
#39 of 138
Common opponents
Common opponents
Michigan State
opponent
Michigan
Aaway-10.7
UCLAUCLA#24+4.2Hhome
Aaway-1.2
RUTGRutgers#89+8.5Aaway
Hhome-18.4
OREOregon#8-14.1Aaway