AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 5:00 AM
#2Away
Oregon
0-0 · AVR 85.1
24p
#1Home
Ohio State
0-0 · AVR 85.7
29p
ORE 37%63% OSU
Spread
OSU -5.0
Total
54
Moneyline
ORE+172OSU-172
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ORE advantageevenOSU advantage →
ORE throw
ORE +18
ORE run
ORE +12
OSU throw
OSU +17
OSU run
ORE linebackers #1
OSU +11

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when OSU throws
Jeremiah Smith
vs
Brandon Finney Jr.
X · OSU
CB1 · ORE
96.0
88.9
OSU +7
when OSU runs
Bo Jackson
vs
Teitum Tuioti
RB · OSU
MLB · ORE
84.6
91.9
ORE +7
off the edge· hunting Moore
Iapani Laloulu
vs
Kenyatta Jackson Jr.
LT · ORE
EDGE · OSU
79.3
95.4
OSU +16
off the edge· hunting Sayin
Austin Siereveld
vs
A'Mauri Washington
LT · OSU
EDGE · ORE
81.7
81.6
dead even
when ORE runs
Jordon Davison
vs
Christian Alliegro
RB · ORE
MLB · OSU
79.1
79.4
dead even
when ORE throws
Jeremiah McClellan
vs
Jermaine Mathews Jr.
X · ORE
CB1 · OSU
75.6
69.4
ORE +6

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Oregon
LBTeitum Tuioti
91.97/878
LBMatayo Uiagalelei
90.610/878
DBBrandon Finney Jr.
88.917/1427
TEJamari Johnson
84.51/287
DBPeyton Woodyard
81.377/1427
QBDante Moorequestionable
79.922/308

also out — Surprise Player Standing, Brayden Platt (LB), J. Davison (RB), Tony Cumberland

Ohio State
WRJeremiah Smith
96.01/777
QBJulian Sayin
86.67/308
RBBo Jackson
84.68/514
LBChristian Alliegro
79.461/878
CBJermaine Mathews Jr.
69.4253/1427
LBPayton Pierce
67.8180/878

also out — Legend Bey (RB), Ohio State OL

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Oregon
opponent
Ohio State
away+18.6
Illinois#35
+26.1home
home+24.0
Nebraska#41
+21.5away
home+22.9
Northwestern#37
+25.4home
home+12.7
Michigan#13
+15.2home
away+5.4
USC#10
+7.8away

Projected margin

80% between -12 and 22
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKOSU +5.095% interval: -18.9 to 28.980% interval: -12.4 to 22.4-12+22ORE wins 37%OSU wins 63%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ OSU 32–25 OREOSU 28–49 ORE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOSU 32–46 ORE neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesOSU 35–42 ORE neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesOSU 39–39 ORE neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesOSU 42–35 ORE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesOSU 46–32 ORE neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesOSU 49–28 ORE neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesOSU 53–25 ORE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOSU 56–21 ORE neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesOSU 25–46 ORE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOSU 28–42 ORE neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesOSU 32–39 ORE neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesOSU 35–35 ORE neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesOSU 39–32 ORE neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesOSU 42–28 ORE neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesOSU 46–25 ORE neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesOSU 49–21 ORE neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesOSU 53–18 ORE neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesOSU 21–42 ORE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOSU 25–39 ORE neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesOSU 28–35 ORE neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesOSU 32–32 ORE neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesOSU 35–28 ORE neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesOSU 39–25 ORE neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesOSU 42–21 ORE neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesOSU 46–18 ORE neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesOSU 49–14 ORE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOSU 18–39 ORE neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesOSU 21–35 ORE neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesOSU 25–32 ORE neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesOSU 28–28 ORE neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesOSU 32–25 ORE neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesOSU 35–21 ORE neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesOSU 39–18 ORE neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesOSU 42–14 ORE neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesOSU 46–11 ORE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOSU 14–35 ORE neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesOSU 18–32 ORE neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesOSU 21–28 ORE neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesOSU 25–25 ORE neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesOSU 28–21 ORE neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesOSU 32–18 ORE neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesOSU 35–14 ORE neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesOSU 39–11 ORE neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesOSU 42–7 ORE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOSU 11–32 ORE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOSU 14–28 ORE neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesOSU 18–25 ORE neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesOSU 21–21 ORE neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesOSU 25–18 ORE neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesOSU 28–14 ORE neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesOSU 32–11 ORE neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesOSU 35–7 ORE neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesOSU 39–4 ORE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOSU 7–28 ORE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOSU 11–25 ORE neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesOSU 14–21 ORE neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesOSU 18–18 ORE neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesOSU 21–14 ORE neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesOSU 25–11 ORE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesOSU 28–7 ORE neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesOSU 32–4 ORE neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesOSU 35–0 ORE neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalORE +21ORE +7OSU +7OSU +21OSU +35margin →