AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 5:00 AM
#13Away
Michigan
0-0 · AVR 73.3
21p
#2Home
Oregon
0-0 · AVR 85.1
34p
MICH 20%80% ORE
Spread
ORE -12.7
Total
55
Moneyline
MICH+408ORE-408
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MICH advantageevenORE advantage →
MICH throw
MICH +15
MICH run
ORE linebackers #1
MICH +11
ORE throw
ORE +4
ORE run
MICH linebackers #95
ORE +29

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Moore
Iapani Laloulu
vs
John Henry Daley
LT · ORE
EDGE · MICH
79.3
107.8
MICH +28
when MICH throws
Andrew Marsh
vs
Brandon Finney Jr.
X · MICH
CB1 · ORE
84.8
88.9
ORE +4
when MICH runs
Jordan Marshall
vs
Teitum Tuioti
RB · MICH
MLB · ORE
80.1
91.9
ORE +12
off the edge· hunting Underwood
Nathan Efobi
vs
A'Mauri Washington
LT · MICH
EDGE · ORE
88.1
81.6
MICH +7
when ORE throws
Jeremiah McClellan
vs
Smith Snowden
X · ORE
CB1 · MICH
75.6
88.1
MICH +12
over the middle
Jamari Johnson
vs
Mason Curtis
TE · ORE
FS · MICH
84.5
67.2
ORE +17

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Michigan
CBSmith Snowden
88.120/1427
WRAndrew Marsh
84.815/777
QBBryce Underwood
84.012/308
WRJJ Buchanan
82.318/777
CBJyaire Hill
80.687/1427
RBJordan Marshall
80.122/514

also out — QB (QB), Former Michigan sacks leader, RB (RB), Ace Hamilton (OL), Andrew Babalola (OL), Freshman Lineman (OL), Michigan Football Freshman Lineman (OL), Michigan freshman +5 more

Oregon
LBTeitum Tuioti
91.97/878
LBMatayo Uiagalelei
90.610/878
DBBrandon Finney Jr.
88.917/1427
TEJamari Johnson
84.51/287
DBPeyton Woodyard
81.377/1427
QBDante Moorequestionable
79.922/308

also out — Surprise Player Standing, Brayden Platt (LB), J. Davison (RB), Tony Cumberland

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Michigan
opponent
Oregon
home+18.4
UCLA#53
+28.6home
away-15.2
Ohio State#1
-5.0away
home+22.7
Michigan State#65
+27.9away

Projected margin

80% between -5 and 30
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKORE +12.795% interval: -11.2 to 36.680% interval: -4.7 to 30.1-5+30MICH wins 20%ORE wins 80%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ORE 35–21 MICHORE 32–46 MICH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesORE 35–42 MICH neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesORE 39–39 MICH neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesORE 42–35 MICH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesORE 46–32 MICH neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesORE 49–28 MICH neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesORE 53–25 MICH neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesORE 56–21 MICH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesORE 60–18 MICH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesORE 28–42 MICH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesORE 32–39 MICH neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesORE 35–35 MICH neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesORE 39–32 MICH neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesORE 42–28 MICH neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesORE 46–25 MICH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesORE 49–21 MICH neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesORE 53–18 MICH neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesORE 56–14 MICH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesORE 25–39 MICH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesORE 28–35 MICH neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesORE 32–32 MICH neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesORE 35–28 MICH neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesORE 39–25 MICH neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesORE 42–21 MICH neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesORE 46–18 MICH neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesORE 49–14 MICH neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesORE 53–11 MICH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesORE 21–35 MICH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesORE 25–32 MICH neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesORE 28–28 MICH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesORE 32–25 MICH neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesORE 35–21 MICH neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesORE 39–18 MICH neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesORE 42–14 MICH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesORE 46–11 MICH neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesORE 49–7 MICH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesORE 18–32 MICH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesORE 21–28 MICH neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesORE 25–25 MICH neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesORE 28–21 MICH neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesORE 32–18 MICH neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesORE 35–14 MICH neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesORE 39–11 MICH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesORE 42–7 MICH neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesORE 46–4 MICH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesORE 14–28 MICH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesORE 18–25 MICH neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesORE 21–21 MICH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesORE 25–18 MICH neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesORE 28–14 MICH neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesORE 32–11 MICH neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesORE 35–7 MICH neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesORE 39–4 MICH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesORE 42–0 MICH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesORE 11–25 MICH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesORE 14–21 MICH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesORE 18–18 MICH neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesORE 21–14 MICH neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesORE 25–11 MICH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesORE 28–7 MICH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesORE 32–4 MICH neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesORE 35–0 MICH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalMICH +14PKORE +14ORE +28ORE +42margin →