AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 1:00 AM
#2Away
Oregon
0-0 · AVR 85.1
43p
#65Home
Michigan State
0-0 · AVR 50.2
15p
ORE 97%3% MSU
Spread
ORE -27.9
Total
59
Moneyline
ORE—MSU—
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ORE advantageevenMSU advantage →
ORE throw
ORE +39
ORE run
MSU front #98MSU linebackers #13
ORE +29
MSU throw
MSU QB #138
ORE +51
MSU run
MSU line #73MSU backs #18
ORE +14

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MSU runs
Cam Edwards
vs
Teitum Tuioti
RB · MSU
MLB · ORE
83.7
91.9
ORE +8
when ORE runs
Jordon Davison
vs
Caleb Wheatland
RB · ORE
MLB · MSU
79.1
86.7
MSU +8
when ORE throws
Jeremiah McClellan
vs
Charles Brantley
X · ORE
CB1 · MSU
75.6
85.6
MSU +10
off the edge· hunting Moore
Iapani Laloulu
vs
Kenny Soares Jr.
LT · ORE
EDGE · MSU
79.3
68.5
ORE +11
when MSU throws
KK Smith
vs
Brandon Finney Jr.
X · MSU
CB1 · ORE
54.5
88.9
ORE +34
over the middle
Jamari Johnson
vs
Caleb Gash
TE · ORE
FS · MSU
84.5
48.6
ORE +36

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Oregon
LBTeitum Tuioti
91.97/878
LBMatayo Uiagalelei
90.610/878
DBBrandon Finney Jr.
88.917/1427
TEJamari Johnson
84.51/287
DBPeyton Woodyard
81.377/1427
QBDante Moorequestionable
79.922/308

also out — Surprise Player Standing, Brayden Platt (LB), J. Davison (RB), Tony Cumberland

Michigan State
LBCaleb Wheatland
86.715/878
CBCharles Brantley
85.638/1427
RBCam Edwards
83.713/514
LBDion Crawford
79.757/878
SMichael Richard
77.0125/1427
CBTre Bell
72.8180/1427

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Oregon
opponent
Michigan State
home+28.6
UCLA#53
-6.8away
home+12.7
Michigan#13
-22.7away
home+24.0
Nebraska#41
-6.5home
home+22.9
Northwestern#37
-7.5home
home+13.7
Washington#15
-16.7home
away+18.6
Illinois#35
-6.8home

Projected margin

80% between -45 and -11
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKORE +27.995% interval: -51.8 to -480% interval: -45.3 to -10.5-45-10ORE wins 97%MSU wins 3%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ORE 42–14 MSUMSU 11–67 ORE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMSU 14–63 ORE neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMSU 18–60 ORE neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMSU 21–56 ORE neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMSU 25–53 ORE neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMSU 28–49 ORE neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMSU 32–46 ORE neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMSU 35–42 ORE neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMSU 39–39 ORE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMSU 7–63 ORE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMSU 11–60 ORE neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMSU 14–56 ORE neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMSU 18–53 ORE neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMSU 21–49 ORE neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMSU 25–46 ORE neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMSU 28–42 ORE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMSU 32–39 ORE neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMSU 35–35 ORE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMSU 4–60 ORE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMSU 7–56 ORE neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMSU 11–53 ORE neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMSU 14–49 ORE neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMSU 18–46 ORE neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesMSU 21–42 ORE neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMSU 25–39 ORE neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMSU 28–35 ORE neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMSU 32–32 ORE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMSU 0–56 ORE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMSU 4–53 ORE neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMSU 7–49 ORE neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMSU 11–46 ORE neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMSU 14–42 ORE neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesMSU 18–39 ORE neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMSU 21–35 ORE neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMSU 25–32 ORE neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMSU 28–28 ORE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)MSU 0–49 ORE neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMSU 4–46 ORE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMSU 7–42 ORE neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMSU 11–39 ORE neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMSU 14–35 ORE neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMSU 18–32 ORE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMSU 21–28 ORE neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMSU 25–25 ORE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)MSU 0–42 ORE neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMSU 4–39 ORE neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMSU 7–35 ORE neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMSU 11–32 ORE neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMSU 14–28 ORE neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMSU 18–25 ORE neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMSU 21–21 ORE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)MSU 0–35 ORE neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMSU 4–32 ORE neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMSU 7–28 ORE neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMSU 11–25 ORE neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMSU 14–21 ORE neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMSU 18–18 ORE neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalORE +56ORE +42ORE +28ORE +14PKmargin →