CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 3:30 PM ET
Forecast win probability
RICE 0.3%99.7% ND
Projected margin
ND by 40.7
Projected total
55
80% outcome range
ND 22 to ND 59
Win probability
ND 99.7%
FinalRICE 0 · ND 52model had +40.7, off by 11.3

Current team profiles

Rice
Notre Dame

When Rice has the ball

Passing

ND defense
Higher-ranked profile
RICE offense
#136
ND defense
#34
EPA comparison
-0.18
#136
0.05
#34
Pass EPA

Rushing

ND defense
Higher-ranked profile
RICE offense
#100
ND defense
#2
EPA comparison
0.03
#100
-0.23
#2
Rush EPA

Drive success

ND defense
Higher-ranked profile
RICE offense
#108
ND defense
#9
Success rates
39%
#108
33%
#9
Success rate
More metrics
-0.03
#127
-0.09
#11
EPA / play
1.11
#125
1.20
#65
Explosiveness
17%
#110
23%
#3
Havoc

When Notre Dame has the ball

Passing

ND offense
Higher-ranked profile
RICE defense
#34
ND offense
#8
EPA comparison
0.05
#34
0.54
#8
Pass EPA

Rushing

ND offense
Higher-ranked profile
RICE defense
#102
ND offense
#19
EPA comparison
0.13
#102
0.24
#19
Rush EPA

Drive success

ND offense
Higher-ranked profile
RICE defense
#65
ND offense
#3
Success rates
40%
#65
53%
#3
Success rate
More metrics
0.09
#84
0.36
#4
EPA / play
1.33
#112
1.15
#107
Explosiveness
15%
#79
10%
#9
Havoc

Current key players

Rice
QBJacurri Brown
403 yds · 2 TD · 1 INT
77.297/729
RBCarson Morgan
54 yds · 0 TD · 7.7 YPC
87.520/1044
SDaveon Hook
3 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
61.4
Coverage
87.6
Targets allowed
3
Rec allowed
2
Yards allowed
25
Passer rating allowed
52.8
Missed tackles
2
81.246/2969
SMichael Amey III
1 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
71.1
Coverage
77.1
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
0
77.5108/2969
LBBeau Barton
9 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
73.1
Coverage
70.8
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
3
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
75.7164/1796
WRBarry Jackson Jr.
7 rec · 102 yds · 1 TD
70.2262/2069
Availability reports · 4
  • Colten Cole · TEout · 2026-10-10

    Cole has been out of lineup due to an undisclosed injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Davis Lane · WRQues. · 2026-09-20

    Lane is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Fresno State on Saturday.

  • Preston Zinter · TEQues. · 2026-09-20

    Zinter is laid up with a leg injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Fresno State on Saturday, September 26th.

  • James Falk · TEQues. · 2026-09-20

    Falk is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Fresno State on Saturday, September 26th.

Notre Dame
QBCJ Carr
1197 yds · 13 TD · 1 INT
92.45/729
LBKyngstonn Viliamu-Asa
13 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
91.2
Coverage
72.0
Pressures
8
Pass-rush snaps
19
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
92.14/1796
SLuke Talich
14 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
83.1
Coverage
88.3
Targets allowed
9
Rec allowed
8
Yards allowed
55
Passer rating allowed
52.5
Missed tackles
1
89.611/2969
WRDevin Fitzgerald
1 rec · 20 yds · 0 TD
87.020/2069
RBJonaz Walton
228 yds · 0 TD · 5.8 YPC
84.542/1044
SJoey O'Brien
9 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
72.6
Coverage
80.3
Targets allowed
4
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
12
Passer rating allowed
77.1
Missed tackles
0
80.656/2969
Availability reports · 4
  • Quincy Porter · WRout · 2026-09-28

    Porter is sidelined due to knee injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa · LBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Viliamu-Asa is nursing with a thumb injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Cougars on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Leonard Moore · CBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Moore is dealing with a concussion injury, and it has yet to be established if he will play against BYU on Saturday, Saturday 17th.

  • Blake Hebert · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Hebert is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Cougars on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

RICE
ND
vs
Offense
77.2
#74 of 138
QB
92.4
#5 of 138
83.0
#20 of 138
RB
83.8
#15 of 138
67.7
#113 of 138
WR
82.3
#5 of 138
64.6
#93 of 138
TE
59.4
#126 of 138
64.6
#99 of 138
OL
67.2
#77 of 138
Defense
73.2
#67 of 138
DL
83.8
#3 of 138
69.2
#110 of 138
LB
80.0
#22 of 138
71.2
#80 of 138
DB
80.1
#2 of 138
Common opponents