AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 7:30 PM
#127Away
Rice
0-0 · AVR 28.9
8p
#4Home
Notre Dame
0-0 · AVR 79.4
50p
RICE 0%100% ND
Spread
ND -42.2
Total
58
Moneyline
RICE—ND—
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← RICE advantageevenND advantage →
RICE throw
ND +72
RICE run
RICE backs #76
ND +65
ND throw
ND QB #3ND protection #109
ND +56
ND run
ND +4

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when RICE runs
Quinton Jackson
vs
Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa
RB · RICE
MLB · ND
65.9
86.5
ND +21
when RICE throws
Davis Lane
vs
Leonard Moore
X · RICE
CB1 · ND
48.3
101.6
ND +53
when ND throws
Jordan Faison
vs
Ahran Ogbor
X · ND
CB1 · RICE
74.7
55.9
ND +19
over the middle
James Falk
vs
Luke Talich
TE · RICE
FS · ND
35.0
86.9
ND +52
when ND runs
Aneyas Williams
vs
Stone Combs
RB · ND
MLB · RICE
56.9
55.5
dead even
off the edge· hunting Ochoa
Peyton Farmer
vs
Boubacar Traore
LT · RICE
EDGE · ND
22.1
88.4
ND +66

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Rice
RBQuinton Jackson
65.971/514
SAhran Ogbor
55.9595/1427
LBStone Combs
55.5381/878
QBGael Ochoa
52.6129/308
WRDavis Lane
48.3364/777
LBAustin Harnetiaux
41.9637/878
Notre Dame
CBLeonard Moore
101.61/1427
QBCJ Carrprobable
95.13/308
SBrauntae Johnson
91.58/1427
SAdon Shuler
86.929/1427
LBKyngstonn Viliamu-Asaprobable
86.516/878
LBDrayk Bowen
82.738/878

also out — Charles Jagusah, Player 2, Matty Augustine (OL), Notre Dame reserve, Quincy Porter (WR), Decision Means Losing, Jackson Hill (RB), Notre Dame football 2027 commit +2 more

Projected margin

80% between 25 and 60
-7-3+3+7+14PKND +42.295% interval: 18.3 to 66.180% interval: 24.8 to 59.6+25+60RICE wins 0%ND wins 100%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ND 49–7 RICEND 46–32 RICE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesND 49–28 RICE neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesND 53–25 RICE neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesND 56–21 RICE neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesND 60–18 RICE neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesND 63–14 RICE neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesND 67–11 RICE neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesND 70–7 RICE neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesND 74–4 RICE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesND 42–28 RICE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesND 46–25 RICE neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesND 49–21 RICE neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesND 53–18 RICE neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesND 56–14 RICE neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesND 60–11 RICE neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesND 63–7 RICE neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesND 67–4 RICE neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesND 70–0 RICE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesND 39–25 RICE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesND 42–21 RICE neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesND 46–18 RICE neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesND 49–14 RICE neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesND 53–11 RICE neighborhood · ~4.0% of outcomesND 56–7 RICE neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesND 60–4 RICE neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesND 63–0 RICE neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)ND 35–21 RICE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesND 39–18 RICE neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesND 42–14 RICE neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesND 46–11 RICE neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesND 49–7 RICE neighborhood · ~4.1% of outcomesND 53–4 RICE neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesND 56–0 RICE neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)ND 32–18 RICE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesND 35–14 RICE neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesND 39–11 RICE neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesND 42–7 RICE neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesND 46–4 RICE neighborhood · ~3.8% of outcomesND 49–0 RICE neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)ND 28–14 RICE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesND 32–11 RICE neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesND 35–7 RICE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesND 39–4 RICE neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesND 42–0 RICE neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)ND 25–11 RICE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesND 28–7 RICE neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesND 32–4 RICE neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesND 35–0 RICE neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalND +14ND +28ND +42ND +56ND +70margin →