AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 4:00 PM · neutral site
Rip Miller Trophy
#4Away
Notre Dame
0-0 · AVR 79.4
44p
#82Home
Navy
0-0 · AVR 46.3
14p
ND 98%2% NAVY
Spread
ND -29.6
Total
59
Moneyline
ND—NAVY—
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ND advantageevenNAVY advantage →
ND throw
ND QB #3ND protection #109
ND +62
ND run
NAVY front #140NAVY linebackers #60
NAVY +6
NAVY throw
NAVY QB #104NAVY protection #4
ND +43
NAVY run
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Gutierrez
Ben Reiland
vs
Boubacar Traore
LT · NAVY
EDGE · ND
101.4
88.4
NAVY +13
when NAVY throws
Joshua Guerin
vs
Leonard Moore
X · NAVY
CB1 · ND
54.7
101.6
ND +47
over the middle
Jordan Collins
vs
Luke Talich
TE · NAVY
FS · ND
56.9
86.9
ND +30
when ND runs
Aneyas Williams
vs
MarcAnthony Parker
RB · ND
MLB · NAVY
56.9
74.9
NAVY +18
when ND throws
Jordan Faison
vs
Matthew Seliga
X · ND
CB1 · NAVY
74.7
53.9
ND +21
over the middle
Jack Larsen
vs
Phillip Hamilton
TE · ND
FS · NAVY
60.8
40.2
ND +21

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Notre Dame
CBLeonard Moore
101.61/1427
QBCJ Carrprobable
95.13/308
SBrauntae Johnson
91.58/1427
SAdon Shuler
86.929/1427
LBKyngstonn Viliamu-Asaprobable
86.516/878
LBDrayk Bowen
82.738/878

also out — Charles Jagusah, Player 2, Matty Augustine (OL), Notre Dame reserve, Quincy Porter (WR), Decision Means Losing, Jackson Hill (RB), Notre Dame football 2027 commit +2 more

Navy
LBMarcAnthony Parker
74.9107/878
LBColeman Cauley
69.1160/878
TEJordan Collins
56.979/287
WRJoshua Guerin
54.7182/777
SMatthew Seliga
53.9653/1427
LBJob Grant
53.6411/878

Projected margin

80% between -47 and -12
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKND +29.695% interval: -53.6 to -5.780% interval: -47 to -12.3-47-12ND wins 98%NAVY wins 2%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ND 42–14 NAVYNAVY 11–67 ND neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNAVY 14–63 ND neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNAVY 18–60 ND neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNAVY 21–56 ND neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNAVY 25–53 ND neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNAVY 28–49 ND neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNAVY 32–46 ND neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNAVY 35–42 ND neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNAVY 39–39 ND neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNAVY 7–63 ND neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNAVY 11–60 ND neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNAVY 14–56 ND neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNAVY 18–53 ND neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNAVY 21–49 ND neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNAVY 25–46 ND neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNAVY 28–42 ND neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNAVY 32–39 ND neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNAVY 35–35 ND neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNAVY 4–60 ND neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNAVY 7–56 ND neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNAVY 11–53 ND neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNAVY 14–49 ND neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesNAVY 18–46 ND neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesNAVY 21–42 ND neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNAVY 25–39 ND neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNAVY 28–35 ND neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNAVY 32–32 ND neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNAVY 0–56 ND neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNAVY 4–53 ND neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNAVY 7–49 ND neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNAVY 11–46 ND neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesNAVY 14–42 ND neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesNAVY 18–39 ND neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNAVY 21–35 ND neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNAVY 25–32 ND neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNAVY 28–28 ND neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)NAVY 0–49 ND neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNAVY 4–46 ND neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNAVY 7–42 ND neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNAVY 11–39 ND neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNAVY 14–35 ND neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNAVY 18–32 ND neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNAVY 21–28 ND neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNAVY 25–25 ND neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)NAVY 0–42 ND neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNAVY 4–39 ND neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNAVY 7–35 ND neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNAVY 11–32 ND neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNAVY 14–28 ND neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNAVY 18–25 ND neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNAVY 21–21 ND neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)NAVY 0–35 ND neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNAVY 4–32 ND neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNAVY 7–28 ND neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNAVY 11–25 ND neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNAVY 14–21 ND neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNAVY 18–18 ND neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalND +56ND +42ND +28ND +14PKmargin →