CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 12:00 PM ET · neutral site
Rip Miller Trophy
Forecast win probability
ND 95.9%4.1% NAVY
Projected margin
ND by 27.4
Projected total
56
80% outcome range
ND 46 to ND 9
Win probability
ND 95.9%

Current team profiles

Notre Dame
Navy

When Notre Dame has the ball

Passing

ND offense
Higher-ranked profile
ND offense
#8
NAVY defense
#109
EPA comparison
0.54
#8
0.29
#109
Pass EPA

Rushing

ND offense
Higher-ranked profile
ND offense
#19
NAVY defense
#41
EPA comparison
0.24
#19
-0.01
#41
Rush EPA

Drive success

ND offense
Higher-ranked profile
ND offense
#3
NAVY defense
#34
Success rates
53%
#3
36%
#34
Success rate
More metrics
0.36
#4
0.09
#83
EPA / play
1.15
#107
1.38
#126
Explosiveness
10%
#9
13%
#113
Havoc

When Navy has the ball

Passing

ND defense
Higher-ranked profile
ND defense
#34
NAVY offense
#119
EPA comparison
0.05
#34
0.04
#119
Pass EPA

Rushing

ND defense
Higher-ranked profile
ND defense
#2
NAVY offense
#12
EPA comparison
-0.23
#2
0.26
#12
Rush EPA

Drive success

ND defense
Higher-ranked profile
ND defense
#9
NAVY offense
#30
Success rates
33%
#9
48%
#30
Success rate
More metrics
-0.09
#11
0.20
#48
EPA / play
1.20
#65
1.14
#112
Explosiveness
23%
#3
14%
#50
Havoc

Current key players

Notre Dame
QBCJ Carr
1197 yds · 13 TD · 1 INT
92.45/729
LBKyngstonn Viliamu-Asa
13 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
91.2
Coverage
72.0
Pressures
8
Pass-rush snaps
19
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
92.14/1796
SLuke Talich
14 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
83.1
Coverage
88.3
Targets allowed
9
Rec allowed
8
Yards allowed
55
Passer rating allowed
52.5
Missed tackles
1
89.611/2969
WRDevin Fitzgerald
1 rec · 20 yds · 0 TD
87.020/2069
RBJonaz Walton
228 yds · 0 TD · 5.8 YPC
84.542/1044
SJoey O'Brien
9 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
72.6
Coverage
80.3
Targets allowed
4
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
12
Passer rating allowed
77.1
Missed tackles
0
80.656/2969
Availability reports · 4
  • Quincy Porter · WRout · 2026-09-28

    Porter is sidelined due to knee injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa · LBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Viliamu-Asa is nursing with a thumb injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Cougars on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Leonard Moore · CBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Moore is dealing with a concussion injury, and it has yet to be established if he will play against BYU on Saturday, Saturday 17th.

  • Blake Hebert · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Hebert is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Cougars on Saturday, October 17th.

Navy
QBBraxton Woodson
71 yds · 0 TD · 1 INT
75.7107/729
LBMarcAnthony Parker
33 tkl · 6.0 TFL · 4.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
81.8
Coverage
65.5
Pressures
8
Pass-rush snaps
22
Missed tackles
5
Forced fumbles
0
80.970/1796
LBColeman Cauley
31 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
81.4
Coverage
69.0
Pressures
9
Pass-rush snaps
27
Missed tackles
7
Forced fumbles
0
78.6106/1796
RBJacob Williams
34 yds · 0 TD · 6.8 YPC
71.6269/1044
WRTruman Brasfield
2 rec · 107 yds · 1 TD
69.1301/2069
WRCharles Robinson
6 rec · 50 yds · 1 TD
68.9311/2069
Availability reports · 4
  • Landon Walker · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Walker is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Roadrunners on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Jake Norris · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Norris is hampered with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against UTSA on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Merrick Barlow · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Barlow is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Roadrunners on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Jeremiah Chalmers · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Chalmers is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Roadrunners on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

ND
NAVY
vs
Offense
92.4
#5 of 138
QB
75.7
#80 of 138
83.8
#15 of 138
RB
69.1
#124 of 138
82.3
#5 of 138
WR
68.9
#96 of 138
59.4
#126 of 138
TE
59.6
#125 of 138
67.2
#77 of 138
OL
67.5
#73 of 138
Defense
83.8
#3 of 138
DL
70.3
#104 of 138
80.0
#22 of 138
LB
78.5
#34 of 138
80.1
#2 of 138
DB
63.4
#138 of 138
Common opponents