Passing
MEM defense
Higher-ranked profile
- ARST offense
- #70
- MEM defense
- #26
EPA comparison
0.23
#70
0.01
#26
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 7:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
ARST 19.6%80.4% MEM
- Projected margin
- MEM by 13.7
- Projected total
- 53
- 80% outcome range
- ARST 7 to MEM 34
- Win probability
- MEM 80.4%
FinalARST 24 · MEM 42model had +13.7, off by 4.3
Current team profiles
Arkansas StateMemphisWhen Arkansas State has the ball
Rushing
ARST offense
Higher-ranked profile
- ARST offense
- #39
- MEM defense
- #119
EPA comparison
0.18
#39
0.16
#119
Rush EPA
Drive success
ARST offense
Higher-ranked profile
- ARST offense
- #13
- MEM defense
- #62
Success rates
50%
#13
40%
#62
Success rate
More metrics
0.18
#59
0.06
#72
EPA / play
1.16
#103
1.35
#117
Explosiveness
14%
#66
17%
#57
Havoc
When Memphis has the ball
Passing
MEM offense
Higher-ranked profile
- ARST defense
- #135
- MEM offense
- #5
EPA comparison
0.46
#135
0.56
#5
Pass EPA
Rushing
MEM offense
Higher-ranked profile
- ARST defense
- #102
- MEM offense
- #25
EPA comparison
0.13
#102
0.22
#25
Rush EPA
Drive success
MEM offense
Higher-ranked profile
- ARST defense
- #129
- MEM offense
- #17
Success rates
47%
#129
50%
#17
Success rate
More metrics
0.21
#123
0.28
#22
EPA / play
1.20
#63
1.26
#50
Explosiveness
11%
#132
11%
#14
Havoc
Current key players
Arkansas StateQBTrey Owens
1043 yds · 5 TD · 4 INT
77.596/729
LBKam Moore
23 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 86.2
- Coverage
- 72.3
- Pressures
- 1
- Pass-rush snaps
- 4
- Missed tackles
- 3
- Forced fumbles
- 0
85.234/1796
LBRobert Stevens
25 tkl · 3.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 73.9
- Coverage
- 89.5
- Pressures
- 3
- Pass-rush snaps
- 17
- Missed tackles
- 6
- Forced fumbles
- 1
84.940/1796
SBrandon Greil
16 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 81.5
- Coverage
- 77.3
- Targets allowed
- 7
- Rec allowed
- 6
- Yards allowed
- 54
- Passer rating allowed
- 59.2
- Missed tackles
- 3
80.458/2969
CBNoah Flores
12 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 58.2
- Coverage
- 81.9
- Targets allowed
- 7
- Rec allowed
- 4
- Yards allowed
- 108
- Passer rating allowed
- 101.8
- Missed tackles
- 3
78.097/2969
RBJames Lee
123 yds · 0 TD · 7.2 YPC
75.5170/1044
Availability reports · 1
- Devin Spencer · RBout · 2026-08-17
Spencer is dealing with a knee injury, and he is projected to miss the remainder of the season.
MemphisQBMarcus Stokes
1371 yds · 14 TD · 3 INT
85.441/729
RBDallan Hayden
172 yds · 1 TD · 6.4 YPC
88.616/1044
LBTylon Nash
6 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 76.1
- Coverage
- 73.9
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
84.348/1796
TEHunter Tipton
19 rec · 367 yds · 5 TD
Player detail
- Pass blocking
- 54.9
- Run blocking
- 44.5
- Penalties
- 0
77.338/1017
CBEllis Ellis Jr.
9 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 85.5
- Coverage
- 72.4
- Targets allowed
- 6
- Rec allowed
- 3
- Yards allowed
- 43
- Passer rating allowed
- 73.6
- Missed tackles
- 0
76.4147/2969
WRJermane Hayes
22 rec · 242 yds · 2 TD
74.8130/2069
Position units
Position-unit comparison
ARSTArkansas State
MEMMemphis
vs
Offense
77.5
#73 of 138
QB
Quarterback
85.4
#38 of 138
74.5
#77 of 138
RB
Running backs
87.3
#5 of 138
72.0
#61 of 138
WR
Receivers
68.2
#104 of 138
67.0
#82 of 138
TE
Tight ends
77.3
#32 of 138
71.0
#46 of 138
OL
Offensive line
67.2
#75 of 138
Defense
72.6
#77 of 138
DL
Defensive line
69.7
#111 of 138
77.9
#37 of 138
LB
Linebackers
75.3
#57 of 138
76.6
#21 of 138
DB
Secondary
70.9
#83 of 138