AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 7:00 PM
#104Away
Arkansas State
0-0 · AVR 38.8
17p
#63Home
Memphis
0-0 · AVR 50.4
38p
ARST 9%91% MEM
Spread
MEM -20.9
Total
56
Moneyline
ARST+1036MEM-1036
Against the market
MEM +12.4line MEM -8.5

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ARST advantageevenMEM advantage →
ARST throw
MEM +55
ARST run
ARST backs #67
MEM +35
MEM throw
MEM QB #126MEM protection #48
even
MEM run
MEM +37

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Noland
Brian Grant
vs
Shakai Woods
LT · MEM
EDGE · ARST
79.2
84.8
ARST +6
when ARST throws
Chauncy Cobb
vs
Ian Foster
X · ARST
CB1 · MEM
45.7
90.2
MEM +44
when ARST runs
Kenyon Clay
vs
Mike Montgomery
RB · ARST
MLB · MEM
59.4
71.4
MEM +12
when MEM throws
Brady Kluse
vs
Five Hamilton
X · MEM
CB1 · ARST
60.4
67.8
ARST +7
off the edge· hunting Dickey
Aleric Watson
vs
J'Mond Tapp
LT · ARST
EDGE · MEM
27.1
86.2
MEM +59
over the middle
Hunter Tipton
vs
Joe Drew
TE · MEM
FS · ARST
50.6
59.0
ARST +8

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Arkansas State
SFive Hamilton
67.8286/1427
CBNoah Flores
66.7315/1427
CBJaylen Heyward
65.2351/1427
RBKenyon Clay
59.4117/514
QBDrew Dickey
55.395/308
LBNigel Nelson
51.6446/878

also out — D. Spencer (RB)

Memphis
SIan Foster
90.210/1427
CBAnthony Richard Jr.
87.922/1427
SAhmere Foster
79.694/1427
LBMike Montgomery
71.4130/878
LBJayden Parrish
62.8245/878
WRBrady Kluse
60.4113/777

Projected margin

80% between 2 and 38
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMEM +20.9MKT95% interval: -10 to 4980% interval: 2 to 38+2+38ARST wins 9%MEM wins 91%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MEM 39–18 ARSTMEM 35–42 ARST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMEM 39–39 ARST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMEM 42–35 ARST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMEM 46–32 ARST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMEM 49–28 ARST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMEM 53–25 ARST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMEM 56–21 ARST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMEM 60–18 ARST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMEM 63–14 ARST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMEM 32–39 ARST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMEM 35–35 ARST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMEM 39–32 ARST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMEM 42–28 ARST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMEM 46–25 ARST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMEM 49–21 ARST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMEM 53–18 ARST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMEM 56–14 ARST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMEM 60–11 ARST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMEM 28–35 ARST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMEM 32–32 ARST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMEM 35–28 ARST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMEM 39–25 ARST neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMEM 42–21 ARST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMEM 46–18 ARST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMEM 49–14 ARST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMEM 53–11 ARST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMEM 56–7 ARST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMEM 25–32 ARST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMEM 28–28 ARST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMEM 32–25 ARST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMEM 35–21 ARST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMEM 39–18 ARST neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesMEM 42–14 ARST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMEM 46–11 ARST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMEM 49–7 ARST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMEM 53–4 ARST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMEM 21–28 ARST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMEM 25–25 ARST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMEM 28–21 ARST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMEM 32–18 ARST neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMEM 35–14 ARST neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesMEM 39–11 ARST neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMEM 42–7 ARST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMEM 46–4 ARST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMEM 49–0 ARST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMEM 18–25 ARST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMEM 21–21 ARST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMEM 25–18 ARST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMEM 28–14 ARST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMEM 32–11 ARST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMEM 35–7 ARST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMEM 39–4 ARST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMEM 42–0 ARST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)MEM 14–21 ARST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMEM 18–18 ARST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMEM 21–14 ARST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMEM 25–11 ARST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMEM 28–7 ARST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMEM 32–4 ARST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMEM 35–0 ARST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalARST +7MEM +7MEM +21MEM +35MEM +49margin →