AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 11:30 PM
#82Away
Navy
0-0 · AVR 46.3
31p
#108Home
Florida Atlantic
0-0 · AVR 36.6
29p
NAVY 56%44% FAU
Spread
NAVY -2.0
Total
60
Moneyline
NAVY-126FAU+126
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← NAVY advantageevenFAU advantage →
NAVY throw
NAVY QB #104NAVY protection #4
even
NAVY run
NAVY +44
FAU throw
FAU +58
FAU run
NAVY front #140NAVY linebackers #60
FAU +23

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Gutierrez
Ben Reiland
vs
Blake Burris
LT · NAVY
EDGE · FAU
101.4
81.1
NAVY +20
when FAU runs
Kaden Shields-Dutton
vs
MarcAnthony Parker
RB · FAU
MLB · NAVY
60.5
74.9
NAVY +14
off the edge· hunting Veltkamp
Vincent Fiacable
vs
Griffen Willis
LT · FAU
EDGE · NAVY
71.7
57.0
FAU +15
when NAVY throws
Joshua Guerin
vs
Jay Crable
X · NAVY
CB1 · FAU
54.7
67.8
FAU +13
when FAU throws
Easton Messer
vs
Matthew Seliga
X · FAU
CB1 · NAVY
67.8
53.9
FAU +14
over the middle
Jordan Collins
vs
Damarius McGhee
TE · NAVY
FS · FAU
56.9
57.3
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Navy
LBMarcAnthony Parker
74.9107/878
LBColeman Cauley
69.1160/878
TEJordan Collins
56.979/287
WRJoshua Guerin
54.7182/777
SMatthew Seliga
53.9653/1427
LBJob Grant
53.6411/878
Florida Atlantic
LBJoseph Sipp Jr.
71.4127/878
QBCaden Veltkamp
68.345/308
WREaston Messer
67.865/777
DBJay Crable
67.8283/1427
WRDominique Henry
66.376/777
DBJosh Roberts
60.8463/1427

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Navy
opponent
Florida Atlantic
home+8.0
Tulsa#110
-1.5away
home+0.4
North Texas#80
-9.1away
neutral+7.4
Army#118
+0.5away
away-9.2
UTSA#62
-8.7home

Projected margin

80% between -19 and 15
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKNAVY +2.095% interval: -25.9 to 21.980% interval: -19.4 to 15.4-19+15NAVY wins 56%FAU wins 44%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ FAU 32–32 NAVYFAU 28–56 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFAU 32–53 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesFAU 35–49 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesFAU 39–46 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesFAU 42–42 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFAU 46–39 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesFAU 49–35 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesFAU 53–32 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFAU 56–28 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesFAU 25–53 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFAU 28–49 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesFAU 32–46 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesFAU 35–42 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesFAU 39–39 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesFAU 42–35 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesFAU 46–32 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesFAU 49–28 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFAU 53–25 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFAU 21–49 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFAU 25–46 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesFAU 28–42 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesFAU 32–39 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesFAU 35–35 NAVY neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesFAU 39–32 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesFAU 42–28 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesFAU 46–25 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFAU 49–21 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFAU 18–46 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFAU 21–42 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesFAU 25–39 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesFAU 28–35 NAVY neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesFAU 32–32 NAVY neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesFAU 35–28 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesFAU 39–25 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesFAU 42–21 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesFAU 46–18 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFAU 14–42 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFAU 18–39 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesFAU 21–35 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesFAU 25–32 NAVY neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesFAU 28–28 NAVY neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesFAU 32–25 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesFAU 35–21 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesFAU 39–18 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesFAU 42–14 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFAU 11–39 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFAU 14–35 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesFAU 18–32 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesFAU 21–28 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesFAU 25–25 NAVY neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesFAU 28–21 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesFAU 32–18 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesFAU 35–14 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFAU 39–11 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFAU 7–35 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFAU 11–32 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesFAU 14–28 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesFAU 18–25 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesFAU 21–21 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesFAU 25–18 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesFAU 28–14 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesFAU 32–11 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFAU 35–7 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes84777063564942totalNAVY +28NAVY +14PKFAU +14FAU +28margin →