CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 7:30 PM ET
Forecast win probability
NAVY 30.1%69.9% FAU
Projected margin
FAU by 7.3
Projected total
63
80% outcome range
NAVY 11 to FAU 28
Win probability
FAU 69.9%
FinalNAVY 30 · FAU 38model had +7.3, off by 0.7

Current team profiles

Navy
Florida Atlantic

When Navy has the ball

Passing

FAU defense
Higher-ranked profile
NAVY offense
#119
FAU defense
#103
EPA comparison
0.04
#119
0.27
#103
Pass EPA

Rushing

NAVY offense
Higher-ranked profile
NAVY offense
#12
FAU defense
#112
EPA comparison
0.26
#12
0.15
#112
Rush EPA

Drive success

NAVY offense
Higher-ranked profile
NAVY offense
#30
FAU defense
#63
Success rates
48%
#30
40%
#63
Success rate
More metrics
0.20
#48
0.18
#117
EPA / play
1.14
#112
1.47
#137
Explosiveness
14%
#50
16%
#72
Havoc

When Florida Atlantic has the ball

Passing

FAU offense
Higher-ranked profile
NAVY defense
#109
FAU offense
#60
EPA comparison
0.29
#109
0.26
#60
Pass EPA

Rushing

NAVY defense
Higher-ranked profile
NAVY defense
#41
FAU offense
#72
EPA comparison
-0.01
#41
0.10
#72
Rush EPA

Drive success

NAVY defense
Higher-ranked profile
NAVY defense
#34
FAU offense
#53
Success rates
36%
#34
45%
#53
Success rate
More metrics
0.09
#83
0.18
#59
EPA / play
1.38
#126
1.21
#89
Explosiveness
13%
#113
15%
#74
Havoc

Current key players

Navy
QBBraxton Woodson
71 yds · 0 TD · 1 INT
75.7107/729
LBMarcAnthony Parker
33 tkl · 6.0 TFL · 4.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
81.8
Coverage
65.5
Pressures
8
Pass-rush snaps
22
Missed tackles
5
Forced fumbles
0
80.970/1796
LBColeman Cauley
31 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
81.4
Coverage
69.0
Pressures
9
Pass-rush snaps
27
Missed tackles
7
Forced fumbles
0
78.6106/1796
RBJacob Williams
34 yds · 0 TD · 6.8 YPC
71.6269/1044
WRTruman Brasfield
2 rec · 107 yds · 1 TD
69.1301/2069
WRCharles Robinson
6 rec · 50 yds · 1 TD
68.9311/2069
Availability reports · 4
  • Landon Walker · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Walker is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Roadrunners on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Jake Norris · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Norris is hampered with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against UTSA on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Merrick Barlow · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Barlow is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Roadrunners on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Jeremiah Chalmers · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Chalmers is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Roadrunners on Saturday, October 17th.

Florida Atlantic
QBCaden Veltkamp
1425 yds · 12 TD · 2 INT
85.539/729
DBWallace Foster IV
4 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
67.8
Coverage
84.8
Targets allowed
5
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
0.0
Missed tackles
1
83.037/2969
DBTyclean Luman
4 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
75.7
Missed tackles
1
77.8101/2969
WRKelby Valsin
40 rec · 512 yds · 5 TD
75.9111/2069
DBJK Johnson
8 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
45.5
Coverage
82.2
Targets allowed
5
Rec allowed
2
Yards allowed
19
Passer rating allowed
51.3
Missed tackles
3
75.2186/2969
WREaston Messer
30 rec · 438 yds · 3 TD
74.8127/2069
Position units

Position-unit comparison

NAVY
FAU
vs
Offense
75.7
#80 of 138
QB
85.5
#36 of 138
69.1
#124 of 138
RB
73.0
#97 of 138
68.9
#96 of 138
WR
74.1
#42 of 138
59.6
#125 of 138
TE
58.9
#128 of 138
67.5
#73 of 138
OL
70.4
#50 of 138
Defense
70.3
#104 of 138
DL
75.3
#51 of 138
78.5
#34 of 138
LB
65.1
#134 of 138
63.4
#138 of 138
DB
75.6
#27 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Navy
opponent
Florida Atlantic
H+8.0
TLSA#98
-3.3A
H+0.1
UNT#64
-10.9A
N-0.4
ARMY#53
-8.8A
A-7.7
UTSA#73
-8.1H