Passing
USF offense
Higher-ranked profile
- USF offense
- #72
- BGSU defense
- #75
EPA comparison
0.22
#72
0.16
#75
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 5:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
USF 92.6%7.4% BGSU
- Projected margin
- USF by 23.0
- Projected total
- 54
- 80% outcome range
- USF 42 to USF 3
- Win probability
- USF 92.6%
FinalUSF 14 · BGSU 6model had -23.0, off by 15.0
Current team profiles
South Florida
Bowling GreenWhen South Florida has the ball
Rushing
USF offense
Higher-ranked profile
- USF offense
- #45
- BGSU defense
- #121
EPA comparison
0.16
#45
0.18
#121
Rush EPA
Drive success
USF offense
Higher-ranked profile
- USF offense
- #35
- BGSU defense
- #117
Success rates
48%
#35
46%
#117
Success rate
More metrics
0.18
#56
0.13
#95
EPA / play
1.12
#122
1.24
#82
Explosiveness
11%
#22
14%
#107
Havoc
When Bowling Green has the ball
Passing
USF defense
Higher-ranked profile
- USF defense
- #75
- BGSU offense
- #87
EPA comparison
0.16
#75
0.15
#87
Pass EPA
Rushing
USF defense
Higher-ranked profile
- USF defense
- #37
- BGSU offense
- #136
EPA comparison
-0.03
#37
-0.12
#136
Rush EPA
Drive success
USF defense
Higher-ranked profile
- USF defense
- #100
- BGSU offense
- #123
Success rates
43%
#100
38%
#123
Success rate
More metrics
0.06
#67
-0.03
#126
EPA / play
1.00
#5
1.05
#134
Explosiveness
15%
#84
17%
#109
Havoc
Current key players
South FloridaQBMichael Van Buren Jr.
896 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
87.231/729
RBTray Kinkle
67 yds · 0 TD · 13.4 YPC
84.343/1044
LBZavier Hamilton
27 tkl · 3.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 79.0
- Coverage
- 66.1
- Pressures
- 9
- Pass-rush snaps
- 14
- Missed tackles
- 1
- Forced fumbles
- 0
75.4171/1796
SIsrael Boyce
17 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 75.1
- Coverage
- 72.7
- Targets allowed
- 5
- Rec allowed
- 1
- Yards allowed
- 4
- Passer rating allowed
- 39.6
- Missed tackles
- 0
75.1193/2969
WRKenny Odom
1 rec · 12 yds · 0 TD
74.8128/2069
LBChristian Smith
1 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 75.0
- Pressures
- 0
- Pass-rush snaps
- 4
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
74.6196/1796
Availability reports · 3
- Cameron Seldon · WRQues. · 2026-10-09
Seldon is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will suit up against the Navy on Saturday, October 17th.
- Arhmad Branch · WRQues. · 2026-10-09
Branch is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will suit up against the Navy on Saturday, 17th Oct.
- Jaden Alexis · WRQues. · 2026-10-09
Alexis is battling with an undisclosed injury, and and it is unclear if he will play against the Navy on Saturday, 17th Oct.
Bowling GreenQBAustin Novosad
-1 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
61.2259/729
FBLeo Kemp
30 yds · 1 TD · 6.0 YPC
85.236/1044
WRWinn Sharp
15 rec · 217 yds · 1 TD
72.4184/2069
TETrent Taylor
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
- Run blocking
- 68.4
- Penalties
- 0
69.899/1017
SKal-El Pascal
38 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 69.4
- Coverage
- 69.3
- Targets allowed
- 8
- Rec allowed
- 6
- Yards allowed
- 67
- Passer rating allowed
- 99.5
- Missed tackles
- 5
69.7463/2969
LBCashmire Lewis
22 tkl · 4.5 TFL · 3.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 67.9
- Coverage
- 61.5
- Pressures
- 5
- Pass-rush snaps
- 7
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
68.9416/1796
Availability reports · 3
- Austin Clay · WRout · 2026-09-26
Clay is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.
- Isaiah Dawson · WRout · 2026-10-10
Dawson is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.
- Ke'Marion Baldwin · RBQues. · 2026-10-10
Baldwin is tending to an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face Ball State on Saturday, October 17th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
USFSouth Florida
BGSUBowling Green
vs
Offense
87.2
#29 of 138
QB
Quarterback
61.2
#128 of 138
83.2
#19 of 138
RB
Running backs
76.8
#56 of 138
72.3
#54 of 138
WR
Receivers
64.1
#134 of 138
60.4
#116 of 138
TE
Tight ends
69.8
#66 of 138
68.3
#65 of 138
OL
Offensive line
60.3
#130 of 138
Defense
72.2
#81 of 138
DL
Defensive line
68.9
#117 of 138
74.6
#63 of 138
LB
Linebackers
62.2
#138 of 138
72.3
#67 of 138
DB
Secondary
67.0
#125 of 138