AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 4:00 AM
#78Away
South Florida
0-0 · AVR 47.2
31p
#114Home
Bowling Green
0-0 · AVR 34.6
25p
USF 65%35% BGSU
Spread
USF -5.7
Total
56
Moneyline
USF-182BGSU+182
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← USF advantageevenBGSU advantage →
USF throw
USF QB #111USF protection #14
BGSU +19
USF run
USF backs #74
USF +6
BGSU throw
USF +23
BGSU run
USF +36

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Bradford
Ethan Green
vs
Myles Bradley
LT · USF
EDGE · BGSU
97.0
95.5
dead even
when USF throws
Mudia Reuben
vs
JoJo Johnson
X · USF
CB1 · BGSU
56.0
79.7
BGSU +24
when USF runs
Alvon Isaac
vs
Dorian Pringle
RB · USF
MLB · BGSU
60.0
69.1
BGSU +9
when BGSU runs
Austyn Dendy
vs
MarShon Oxley
RB · BGSU
MLB · USF
52.8
73.7
USF +21
over the middle
Evan Dangler
vs
Armhan Hale
TE · USF
FS · BGSU
60.6
62.8
dead even
when BGSU throws
Brennan Ridley
vs
Tavin Ward
X · BGSU
CB1 · USF
38.4
70.7
USF +32

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
South Florida
LBMarShon Oxley
73.7114/878
STavin Ward
70.7218/1427
LBShamar Meikle
67.0191/878
CBJair Murphy
65.9337/1427
TEEvan Dangler
60.651/287
RBAlvon Isaac
60.0109/514
Bowling Green
CBJoJo Johnson
79.791/1427
LBDorian Pringle
69.1161/878
DBJayT Jackson
69.1259/1427
SKal-El Pascal
65.6342/1427
LBAndrew Hines III
64.8216/878
QBAustin Novosad
53.1119/308

Projected margin

80% between -23 and 12
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUSF +5.795% interval: -29.6 to 18.280% interval: -23.1 to 11.7-23+12USF wins 65%BGSU wins 35%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ USF 32–25 BGSUBGSU 21–56 USF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBGSU 25–53 USF neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBGSU 28–49 USF neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBGSU 32–46 USF neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBGSU 35–42 USF neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBGSU 39–39 USF neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBGSU 42–35 USF neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBGSU 46–32 USF neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBGSU 49–28 USF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBGSU 18–53 USF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBGSU 21–49 USF neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBGSU 25–46 USF neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBGSU 28–42 USF neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBGSU 32–39 USF neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesBGSU 35–35 USF neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBGSU 39–32 USF neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBGSU 42–28 USF neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBGSU 46–25 USF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBGSU 14–49 USF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBGSU 18–46 USF neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBGSU 21–42 USF neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBGSU 25–39 USF neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesBGSU 28–35 USF neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesBGSU 32–32 USF neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBGSU 35–28 USF neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBGSU 39–25 USF neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBGSU 42–21 USF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBGSU 11–46 USF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBGSU 14–42 USF neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBGSU 18–39 USF neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBGSU 21–35 USF neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBGSU 25–32 USF neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesBGSU 28–28 USF neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesBGSU 32–25 USF neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBGSU 35–21 USF neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBGSU 39–18 USF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBGSU 7–42 USF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBGSU 11–39 USF neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBGSU 14–35 USF neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBGSU 18–32 USF neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesBGSU 21–28 USF neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesBGSU 25–25 USF neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBGSU 28–21 USF neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBGSU 32–18 USF neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBGSU 35–14 USF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBGSU 4–39 USF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBGSU 7–35 USF neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBGSU 11–32 USF neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBGSU 14–28 USF neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBGSU 18–25 USF neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesBGSU 21–21 USF neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBGSU 25–18 USF neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBGSU 28–14 USF neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBGSU 32–11 USF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBGSU 0–35 USF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBGSU 4–32 USF neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBGSU 7–28 USF neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBGSU 11–25 USF neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBGSU 14–21 USF neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBGSU 18–18 USF neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBGSU 21–14 USF neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBGSU 25–11 USF neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBGSU 28–7 USF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalUSF +35USF +21USF +7BGSU +7BGSU +21margin →