CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 7:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
UTSA 80.2%19.8% RICE
Projected margin
UTSA by 12.7
Projected total
57
80% outcome range
UTSA 32 to RICE 7
Win probability
UTSA 80.2%
FinalUTSA 16 · RICE 14model had -12.7, off by 10.7

Current team profiles

UTSA
Rice

When UTSA has the ball

Passing

RICE defense
Higher-ranked profile
UTSA offense
#78
RICE defense
#34
EPA comparison
0.19
#78
0.05
#34
Pass EPA

Rushing

UTSA offense
Higher-ranked profile
UTSA offense
#12
RICE defense
#102
EPA comparison
0.26
#12
0.13
#102
Rush EPA

Drive success

UTSA offense
Higher-ranked profile
UTSA offense
#38
RICE defense
#65
Success rates
47%
#38
40%
#65
Success rate
More metrics
0.23
#34
0.09
#84
EPA / play
1.14
#114
1.33
#112
Explosiveness
12%
#27
15%
#79
Havoc

When Rice has the ball

Passing

UTSA defense
Higher-ranked profile
UTSA defense
#60
RICE offense
#136
EPA comparison
0.11
#60
-0.18
#136
Pass EPA

Rushing

UTSA defense
Higher-ranked profile
UTSA defense
#93
RICE offense
#100
EPA comparison
0.10
#93
0.03
#100
Rush EPA

Drive success

UTSA defense
Higher-ranked profile
UTSA defense
#80
RICE offense
#108
Success rates
41%
#80
39%
#108
Success rate
More metrics
0.06
#68
-0.03
#127
EPA / play
1.15
#34
1.11
#125
Explosiveness
13%
#119
17%
#110
Havoc

Current key players

UTSA
QBMark Wiepert
— yds · — TD · — INT
68.6178/729
RBA'Marion Peterson
194 yds · 4 TD · 7.2 YPC
89.212/1044
LBCamron Cooper
14 tkl · 3.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
80.6
Coverage
72.1
Pressures
7
Pass-rush snaps
92
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
0
77.5127/1796
CBZach Morris
9 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
71.9
Coverage
75.4
Targets allowed
7
Rec allowed
4
Yards allowed
65
Passer rating allowed
48.8
Missed tackles
1
76.4146/2969
WRDJ Allen Jr.
18 rec · 269 yds · 2 TD
76.0109/2069
LBBrandon Tucker
44 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
81.3
Coverage
57.1
Pressures
3
Pass-rush snaps
16
Missed tackles
3
Forced fumbles
0
73.2252/1796
Availability reports · 1
  • Bryson Donnell · RBout · 2026-10-10

    Donnell has been out of lineup due to an undisclosed injury, and he is likely to miss the remainder of the season.

Rice
QBJacurri Brown
403 yds · 2 TD · 1 INT
77.297/729
RBCarson Morgan
54 yds · 0 TD · 7.7 YPC
87.520/1044
SDaveon Hook
3 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
61.4
Coverage
87.6
Targets allowed
3
Rec allowed
2
Yards allowed
25
Passer rating allowed
52.8
Missed tackles
2
81.246/2969
SMichael Amey III
1 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
71.1
Coverage
77.1
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
0
77.5108/2969
LBBeau Barton
9 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
73.1
Coverage
70.8
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
3
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
75.7164/1796
WRBarry Jackson Jr.
7 rec · 102 yds · 1 TD
70.2262/2069
Availability reports · 4
  • Colten Cole · TEout · 2026-10-10

    Cole has been out of lineup due to an undisclosed injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Davis Lane · WRQues. · 2026-09-20

    Lane is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Fresno State on Saturday.

  • Preston Zinter · TEQues. · 2026-09-20

    Zinter is laid up with a leg injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Fresno State on Saturday, September 26th.

  • James Falk · TEQues. · 2026-09-20

    Falk is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Fresno State on Saturday, September 26th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

UTSA
RICE
vs
Offense
68.6
#107 of 138
QB
77.2
#74 of 138
84.7
#11 of 138
RB
83.0
#20 of 138
68.5
#100 of 138
WR
67.7
#113 of 138
64.0
#96 of 138
TE
64.6
#93 of 138
65.0
#95 of 138
OL
64.6
#99 of 138
Defense
69.5
#113 of 138
DL
73.2
#67 of 138
73.9
#71 of 138
LB
69.2
#110 of 138
70.1
#97 of 138
DB
71.2
#80 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

UTSA
opponent
Rice
H+5.2
UNT#64
-13.1A
A+8.1
FAU#88
-4.9A
H+12.8
TLSA#98
-0.2H
A0.0
TULN#85
-7.7H