AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 4:00 AM
#62Away
UTSA
0-0 · AVR 50.5
35p
#127Home
Rice
0-0 · AVR 28.9
21p
UTSA 83%17% RICE
Spread
UTSA -14.3
Total
56
Moneyline
UTSA-504RICE+504
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UTSA advantageevenRICE advantage →
UTSA throw
UTSA protection #91
UTSA +44
UTSA run
UTSA backs #44
UTSA +24
RICE throw
UTSA +25
RICE run
RICE backs #76UTSA linebackers #18
UTSA +37

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when RICE runs
Quinton Jackson
vs
Camron Cooper
RB · RICE
MLB · UTSA
65.9
81.6
UTSA +16
when UTSA runs
Will Henderson III
vs
Stone Combs
RB · UTSA
MLB · RICE
74.5
55.5
UTSA +19
when UTSA throws
AJ Wilson Jr.
vs
Ahran Ogbor
X · UTSA
CB1 · RICE
72.9
55.9
UTSA +17
when RICE throws
Davis Lane
vs
Joel Rogers
X · RICE
CB1 · UTSA
48.3
76.0
UTSA +28
off the edge· hunting McCown
Jonah Miller
vs
Chibby Nwajuaku
LT · UTSA
EDGE · RICE
48.7
62.7
RICE +14
over the middle
Brandon Young Jr.
vs
Daveon Hook
TE · UTSA
FS · RICE
58.2
36.2
UTSA +22

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
UTSA
LBCamron Cooper
81.644/878
LBElijah Baldwin
76.393/878
SJoel Rogers
76.0139/1427
RBWill Henderson III
74.536/514
WRAJ Wilson Jr.
72.940/777
QBOwen McCown
69.141/308
Rice
RBQuinton Jackson
65.971/514
SAhran Ogbor
55.9595/1427
LBStone Combs
55.5381/878
QBGael Ochoa
52.6129/308
WRDavis Lane
48.3364/777
LBAustin Harnetiaux
41.9637/878

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
UTSA
opponent
Rice
home+7.2
North Texas#80
-14.7away
home+14.7
Tulsa#110
-2.1home
away+8.7
Florida Atlantic#108
-8.1away
away+3.9
Tulane#88
-8.0home

Projected margin

80% between -32 and 3
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUTSA +14.395% interval: -38.2 to 9.680% interval: -31.7 to 3-32+3UTSA wins 83%RICE wins 17%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UTSA 35–21 RICERICE 18–60 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesRICE 21–56 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesRICE 25–53 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesRICE 28–49 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesRICE 32–46 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesRICE 35–42 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesRICE 39–39 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesRICE 42–35 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesRICE 46–32 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesRICE 14–56 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesRICE 18–53 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesRICE 21–49 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesRICE 25–46 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesRICE 28–42 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesRICE 32–39 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesRICE 35–35 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesRICE 39–32 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesRICE 42–28 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesRICE 11–53 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesRICE 14–49 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesRICE 18–46 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesRICE 21–42 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesRICE 25–39 UTSA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesRICE 28–35 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesRICE 32–32 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesRICE 35–28 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesRICE 39–25 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesRICE 7–49 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesRICE 11–46 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesRICE 14–42 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesRICE 18–39 UTSA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesRICE 21–35 UTSA neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesRICE 25–32 UTSA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesRICE 28–28 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesRICE 32–25 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesRICE 35–21 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesRICE 4–46 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesRICE 7–42 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesRICE 11–39 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesRICE 14–35 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesRICE 18–32 UTSA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesRICE 21–28 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesRICE 25–25 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesRICE 28–21 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesRICE 32–18 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesRICE 0–42 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesRICE 4–39 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesRICE 7–35 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesRICE 11–32 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesRICE 14–28 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesRICE 18–25 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesRICE 21–21 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesRICE 25–18 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesRICE 28–14 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)RICE 0–35 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesRICE 4–32 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesRICE 7–28 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesRICE 11–25 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesRICE 14–21 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesRICE 18–18 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesRICE 21–14 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesRICE 25–11 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalUTSA +42UTSA +28UTSA +14PKRICE +14margin →