CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 12:00 PM ET
Commander-in-Chief's Trophy
#93Away
Navy
1-2 · AVR 55.5
9
Final
#78Home
Air Force
2-1 · AVR 57.9
14
Forecast win probability
NAVY 31.7%68.3% AF
Projected margin
AF by 7.1
Projected total
58
80% outcome range
NAVY 11 to AF 28
Win probability
AF 68.3%
FinalNAVY 9 · AF 14model had +7.1, off by 2.1

Current team profiles

Navy
Air Force

When Navy has the ball

Passing

AF defense
Higher-ranked profile
NAVY offense
#119
AF defense
#20
EPA comparison
0.04
#119
0.00
#20
Pass EPA

Rushing

NAVY offense
Higher-ranked profile
NAVY offense
#12
AF defense
#47
EPA comparison
0.26
#12
0.00
#47
Rush EPA

Drive success

AF defense
Higher-ranked profile
NAVY offense
#30
AF defense
#29
Success rates
48%
#30
35%
#29
Success rate
More metrics
0.20
#48
-0.02
#37
EPA / play
1.14
#112
1.29
#101
Explosiveness
14%
#50
14%
#97
Havoc

When Air Force has the ball

Passing

NAVY defense
Higher-ranked profile
NAVY defense
#109
AF offense
#132
EPA comparison
0.29
#109
-0.07
#132
Pass EPA

Rushing

AF offense
Higher-ranked profile
NAVY defense
#41
AF offense
#6
EPA comparison
-0.01
#41
0.29
#6
Rush EPA

Drive success

AF offense
Higher-ranked profile
NAVY defense
#34
AF offense
#25
Success rates
36%
#34
49%
#25
Success rate
More metrics
0.09
#83
0.22
#39
EPA / play
1.38
#126
1.03
#136
Explosiveness
13%
#113
6%
#1
Havoc

Current key players

Navy
QBBraxton Woodson
71 yds · 0 TD · 1 INT
75.7107/729
LBMarcAnthony Parker
33 tkl · 6.0 TFL · 4.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
81.8
Coverage
65.5
Pressures
8
Pass-rush snaps
22
Missed tackles
5
Forced fumbles
0
80.970/1796
LBColeman Cauley
31 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
81.4
Coverage
69.0
Pressures
9
Pass-rush snaps
27
Missed tackles
7
Forced fumbles
0
78.6106/1796
RBJacob Williams
34 yds · 0 TD · 6.8 YPC
71.6269/1044
WRTruman Brasfield
2 rec · 107 yds · 1 TD
69.1301/2069
WRCharles Robinson
6 rec · 50 yds · 1 TD
68.9311/2069
Availability reports · 4
  • Landon Walker · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Walker is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Roadrunners on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Jake Norris · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Norris is hampered with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against UTSA on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Merrick Barlow · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Barlow is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Roadrunners on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Jeremiah Chalmers · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Chalmers is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Roadrunners on Saturday, October 17th.

Air Force
QBLiam Szarka
296 yds · 1 TD · 4 INT
81.862/729
LBBlake Fletcher
44 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
90.3
Coverage
83.1
Pressures
3
Pass-rush snaps
19
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
1
90.014/1796
DBMax Mustell
15 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
67.0
Coverage
89.3
Targets allowed
4
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
14
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
5
87.417/2969
WRMason Hayes
12 rush yds · 0 TD · 1 car
77.579/2069
RBRocco Conti
187 yds · 1 TD · 5.3 YPC
72.3251/1044
LBIsaac Hubert
6 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
71.3
Coverage
64.0
Pressures
8
Pass-rush snaps
83
Missed tackles
4
Forced fumbles
0
71.3320/1796
Availability reports · 2
  • Liam Szarka · QBout · 2026-10-05

    Szarka is battling with a lower leg injury, and has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Griffin Stalfort · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Stalfort is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will play Saturday's game against Rebels , October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

NAVY
AF
vs
Offense
75.7
#80 of 138
QB
81.8
#53 of 138
69.1
#124 of 138
RB
72.0
#106 of 138
68.9
#96 of 138
WR
71.2
#73 of 138
59.6
#125 of 138
TE
68.6
#74 of 138
67.5
#73 of 138
OL
74.7
#18 of 138
Defense
70.3
#104 of 138
DL
69.6
#112 of 138
78.5
#34 of 138
LB
76.9
#45 of 138
63.4
#138 of 138
DB
69.0
#111 of 138
Common opponents