AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 4:00 PM
Commander-in-Chief's Trophy
#82Away
Navy
0-0 · AVR 46.3
30p
#98Home
Air Force
0-0 · AVR 40.0
32p
NAVY 46%54% AF
Spread
AF -1.5
Total
62
Moneyline
NAVY+118AF-118
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← NAVY advantageevenAF advantage →
NAVY throw
NAVY QB #104NAVY protection #4
NAVY +44
NAVY run
NAVY +79
AF throw
AF +69
AF run
NAVY front #140NAVY linebackers #60
AF +49

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Szarka
Henry Rickels
vs
Griffen Willis
LT · AF
EDGE · NAVY
98.9
57.0
AF +42
off the edge· hunting Gutierrez
Ben Reiland
vs
Jayden Oquendo
LT · NAVY
EDGE · AF
101.4
53.4
NAVY +48
when AF runs
Owen Allen
vs
MarcAnthony Parker
RB · AF
MLB · NAVY
68.8
74.9
NAVY +6
when AF throws
Jonah Dawson
vs
Matthew Seliga
X · AF
CB1 · NAVY
59.7
53.9
AF +6
when NAVY throws
Joshua Guerin
vs
Max Mustell
X · NAVY
CB1 · AF
54.7
53.7
dead even
over the middle
Jordan Collins
vs
RJ Reedus
TE · NAVY
FS · AF
56.9
35.6
NAVY +21

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Navy
LBMarcAnthony Parker
74.9107/878
LBColeman Cauley
69.1160/878
TEJordan Collins
56.979/287
WRJoshua Guerin
54.7182/777
SMatthew Seliga
53.9653/1427
LBJob Grant
53.6411/878
Air Force
QBLiam Szarka
83.814/308
RBOwen Allen
68.863/514
LBIsaac Hubert
62.5248/878
WRJonah Dawson
59.7118/777
DBMax Mustell
53.7664/1427
QBMaguire Martin
53.5112/308

Projected margin

80% between -16 and 19
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKAF +1.595% interval: -22.4 to 25.480% interval: -15.9 to 18.9-16+19NAVY wins 46%AF wins 54%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ AF 32–32 NAVYAF 28–56 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesAF 32–53 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAF 35–49 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesAF 39–46 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesAF 42–42 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesAF 46–39 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesAF 49–35 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesAF 53–32 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAF 56–28 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAF 25–53 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAF 28–49 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesAF 32–46 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesAF 35–42 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesAF 39–39 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesAF 42–35 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesAF 46–32 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAF 49–28 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesAF 53–25 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAF 21–49 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAF 25–46 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesAF 28–42 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesAF 32–39 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesAF 35–35 NAVY neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesAF 39–32 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesAF 42–28 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesAF 46–25 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesAF 49–21 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAF 18–46 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAF 21–42 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesAF 25–39 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAF 28–35 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesAF 32–32 NAVY neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesAF 35–28 NAVY neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesAF 39–25 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesAF 42–21 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesAF 46–18 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAF 14–42 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAF 18–39 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesAF 21–35 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAF 25–32 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesAF 28–28 NAVY neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesAF 32–25 NAVY neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesAF 35–21 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesAF 39–18 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesAF 42–14 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAF 11–39 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAF 14–35 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAF 18–32 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesAF 21–28 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesAF 25–25 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesAF 28–21 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesAF 32–18 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesAF 35–14 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesAF 39–11 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAF 7–35 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesAF 11–32 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesAF 14–28 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesAF 18–25 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAF 21–21 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesAF 25–18 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesAF 28–14 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesAF 32–11 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAF 35–7 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes84777063564942totalNAVY +28NAVY +14PKAF +14AF +28margin →