AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Thu Oct 8 · 11:30 PM
#78Away
South Florida
0-0 · AVR 47.2
27p
#62Home
UTSA
0-0 · AVR 50.5
34p
USF 33%67% UTSA
Spread
UTSA -6.6
Total
61
Moneyline
USF+203UTSA-203
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← USF advantageevenUTSA advantage →
USF throw
USF QB #111USF protection #14
even
USF run
USF backs #74UTSA linebackers #18
USF +6
UTSA throw
UTSA protection #91
UTSA +19
UTSA run
UTSA backs #44
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Bradford
Ethan Green
vs
Eddy Smith
LT · USF
EDGE · UTSA
97.0
62.9
USF +34
when UTSA runs
Will Henderson III
vs
MarShon Oxley
RB · UTSA
MLB · USF
74.5
73.7
dead even
when UTSA throws
AJ Wilson Jr.
vs
Tavin Ward
X · UTSA
CB1 · USF
72.9
70.7
dead even
when USF runs
Alvon Isaac
vs
Camron Cooper
RB · USF
MLB · UTSA
60.0
81.6
UTSA +22
when USF throws
Mudia Reuben
vs
Joel Rogers
X · USF
CB1 · UTSA
56.0
76.0
UTSA +20
over the middle
Evan Dangler
vs
Louie Hogan
TE · USF
FS · UTSA
60.6
56.2
USF +4

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
South Florida
LBMarShon Oxley
73.7114/878
STavin Ward
70.7218/1427
LBShamar Meikle
67.0191/878
CBJair Murphy
65.9337/1427
TEEvan Dangler
60.651/287
RBAlvon Isaac
60.0109/514
UTSA
LBCamron Cooper
81.644/878
LBElijah Baldwin
76.393/878
SJoel Rogers
76.0139/1427
RBWill Henderson III
74.536/514
WRAJ Wilson Jr.
72.940/777
QBOwen McCown
69.141/308

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
South Florida
opponent
UTSA
away+4.6
Florida Atlantic#108
+8.7away
home+4.7
Tulane#88
+3.9away
home+11.7
UAB#121
+10.9away

Projected margin

80% between -11 and 24
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUTSA +6.695% interval: -17.3 to 30.580% interval: -10.8 to 24-11+24USF wins 33%UTSA wins 67%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UTSA 35–28 USFUTSA 32–53 USF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUTSA 35–49 USF neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUTSA 39–46 USF neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUTSA 42–42 USF neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUTSA 46–39 USF neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUTSA 49–35 USF neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUTSA 53–32 USF neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUTSA 56–28 USF neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUTSA 60–25 USF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUTSA 28–49 USF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTSA 32–46 USF neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUTSA 35–42 USF neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUTSA 39–39 USF neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUTSA 42–35 USF neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUTSA 46–32 USF neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUTSA 49–28 USF neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUTSA 53–25 USF neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUTSA 56–21 USF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTSA 25–46 USF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTSA 28–42 USF neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUTSA 32–39 USF neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUTSA 35–35 USF neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUTSA 39–32 USF neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUTSA 42–28 USF neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUTSA 46–25 USF neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUTSA 49–21 USF neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUTSA 53–18 USF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTSA 21–42 USF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUTSA 25–39 USF neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUTSA 28–35 USF neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUTSA 32–32 USF neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUTSA 35–28 USF neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUTSA 39–25 USF neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUTSA 42–21 USF neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUTSA 46–18 USF neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUTSA 49–14 USF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTSA 18–39 USF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUTSA 21–35 USF neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUTSA 25–32 USF neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUTSA 28–28 USF neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUTSA 32–25 USF neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUTSA 35–21 USF neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUTSA 39–18 USF neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUTSA 42–14 USF neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUTSA 46–11 USF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTSA 14–35 USF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTSA 18–32 USF neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUTSA 21–28 USF neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUTSA 25–25 USF neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUTSA 28–21 USF neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUTSA 32–18 USF neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUTSA 35–14 USF neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUTSA 39–11 USF neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUTSA 42–7 USF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTSA 11–32 USF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTSA 14–28 USF neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUTSA 18–25 USF neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUTSA 21–21 USF neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUTSA 25–18 USF neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUTSA 28–14 USF neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUTSA 32–11 USF neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUTSA 35–7 USF neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUTSA 39–4 USF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes84777063564942totalUSF +21USF +7UTSA +7UTSA +21UTSA +35margin →