CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 6 · Thu Oct 8 · 7:30 PM ET
#69Away
South Florida
4-1 · AVR 59.7
24
Final
#73Home
UTSA
4-1 · AVR 58.6
31
Forecast win probability
USF 46.9%53.1% UTSA
Projected margin
UTSA by 1.5
Projected total
55
80% outcome range
USF 18 to UTSA 21
Win probability
UTSA 53.1%
FinalUSF 24 · UTSA 31model had +1.5, off by 5.5

Current team profiles

South Florida
UTSA

When South Florida has the ball

Passing

UTSA defense
Higher-ranked profile
USF offense
#72
UTSA defense
#60
EPA comparison
0.22
#72
0.11
#60
Pass EPA

Rushing

USF offense
Higher-ranked profile
USF offense
#45
UTSA defense
#93
EPA comparison
0.16
#45
0.10
#93
Rush EPA

Drive success

USF offense
Higher-ranked profile
USF offense
#35
UTSA defense
#80
Success rates
48%
#35
41%
#80
Success rate
More metrics
0.18
#56
0.06
#68
EPA / play
1.12
#122
1.15
#34
Explosiveness
11%
#22
13%
#119
Havoc

When UTSA has the ball

Passing

USF defense
Higher-ranked profile
USF defense
#75
UTSA offense
#78
EPA comparison
0.16
#75
0.19
#78
Pass EPA

Rushing

UTSA offense
Higher-ranked profile
USF defense
#37
UTSA offense
#12
EPA comparison
-0.03
#37
0.26
#12
Rush EPA

Drive success

UTSA offense
Higher-ranked profile
USF defense
#100
UTSA offense
#38
Success rates
43%
#100
47%
#38
Success rate
More metrics
0.06
#67
0.23
#34
EPA / play
1.00
#5
1.14
#114
Explosiveness
15%
#84
12%
#27
Havoc

Current key players

South Florida
QBMichael Van Buren Jr.
896 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
87.231/729
RBTray Kinkle
67 yds · 0 TD · 13.4 YPC
84.343/1044
LBZavier Hamilton
27 tkl · 3.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
79.0
Coverage
66.1
Pressures
9
Pass-rush snaps
14
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
75.4171/1796
SIsrael Boyce
17 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
75.1
Coverage
72.7
Targets allowed
5
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
4
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
0
75.1193/2969
WRKenny Odom
1 rec · 12 yds · 0 TD
74.8128/2069
LBChristian Smith
1 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
75.0
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
4
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
74.6196/1796
Availability reports · 3
  • Cameron Seldon · WRQues. · 2026-10-09

    Seldon is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will suit up against the Navy on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Arhmad Branch · WRQues. · 2026-10-09

    Branch is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will suit up against the Navy on Saturday, 17th Oct.

  • Jaden Alexis · WRQues. · 2026-10-09

    Alexis is battling with an undisclosed injury, and and it is unclear if he will play against the Navy on Saturday, 17th Oct.

UTSA
QBMark Wiepert
— yds · — TD · — INT
68.6178/729
RBA'Marion Peterson
194 yds · 4 TD · 7.2 YPC
89.212/1044
LBCamron Cooper
14 tkl · 3.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
80.6
Coverage
72.1
Pressures
7
Pass-rush snaps
92
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
0
77.5127/1796
CBZach Morris
9 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
71.9
Coverage
75.4
Targets allowed
7
Rec allowed
4
Yards allowed
65
Passer rating allowed
48.8
Missed tackles
1
76.4146/2969
WRDJ Allen Jr.
18 rec · 269 yds · 2 TD
76.0109/2069
LBBrandon Tucker
44 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
81.3
Coverage
57.1
Pressures
3
Pass-rush snaps
16
Missed tackles
3
Forced fumbles
0
73.2252/1796
Availability reports · 1
  • Bryson Donnell · RBout · 2026-10-10

    Donnell has been out of lineup due to an undisclosed injury, and he is likely to miss the remainder of the season.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

USF
UTSA
vs
Offense
87.2
#29 of 138
QB
68.6
#107 of 138
83.2
#19 of 138
RB
84.7
#11 of 138
72.3
#54 of 138
WR
68.5
#100 of 138
60.4
#116 of 138
TE
64.0
#96 of 138
68.3
#65 of 138
OL
65.0
#95 of 138
Defense
72.2
#81 of 138
DL
69.5
#113 of 138
74.6
#63 of 138
LB
73.9
#71 of 138
72.3
#67 of 138
DB
70.1
#97 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

South Florida
opponent
UTSA
H+20.2
UAB#137
+12.6A
H+7.5
TULN#85
0.0A
A+10.3
FAU#88
+8.1A