AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 4:00 AM
#127Away
Rice
0-0 · AVR 28.9
19p
#77Home
East Carolina
0-0 · AVR 47.2
33p
RICE 16%84% ECU
Spread
ECU -14.4
Total
52
Moneyline
RICE+507ECU-507
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← RICE advantageevenECU advantage →
RICE throw
ECU pass rush #6
ECU +51
RICE run
RICE backs #76
ECU +58
ECU throw
ECU protection #25
ECU +38
ECU run
ECU +45

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when RICE runs
Quinton Jackson
vs
DJ Johnson Jr.
RB · RICE
MLB · ECU
65.9
73.7
ECU +8
off the edge· hunting Griffis
Karson Jones
vs
Chibby Nwajuaku
LT · ECU
EDGE · RICE
69.2
62.7
ECU +7
when RICE throws
Davis Lane
vs
Kevon Merrell Jr.
X · RICE
CB1 · ECU
48.3
74.1
ECU +26
off the edge· hunting Ochoa
Peyton Farmer
vs
Jasiyah Robinson
LT · RICE
EDGE · ECU
22.1
93.2
ECU +71
when ECU runs
Michael Allen
vs
Stone Combs
RB · ECU
MLB · RICE
58.2
55.5
dead even
when ECU throws
Brock Spalding
vs
Ahran Ogbor
X · ECU
CB1 · RICE
52.8
55.9
RICE +3

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Rice
RBQuinton Jackson
65.971/514
SAhran Ogbor
55.9595/1427
LBStone Combs
55.5381/878
QBGael Ochoa
52.6129/308
WRDavis Lane
48.3364/777
LBAustin Harnetiaux
41.9637/878
East Carolina
DBKevon Merrell Jr.
74.1163/1427
LBDJ Johnson Jr.
73.7115/878
LBCrews Law
70.2143/878
DBZyeir Gamble
66.6319/1427
DBDerrion Horsley
65.2352/1427
QBMitch Griffis
59.771/308

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Rice
opponent
East Carolina
away-8.1
Florida Atlantic#108
+8.8home
away-7.4
Temple#113
+9.4home
home-0.2
Army#118
+6.7away

Projected margin

80% between -3 and 32
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKECU +14.495% interval: -9.5 to 38.380% interval: -3 to 31.8-3+32RICE wins 16%ECU wins 84%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ECU 32–18 RICEECU 28–42 RICE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesECU 32–39 RICE neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesECU 35–35 RICE neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesECU 39–32 RICE neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesECU 42–28 RICE neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesECU 46–25 RICE neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesECU 49–21 RICE neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesECU 53–18 RICE neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesECU 56–14 RICE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesECU 25–39 RICE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesECU 28–35 RICE neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesECU 32–32 RICE neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesECU 35–28 RICE neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesECU 39–25 RICE neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesECU 42–21 RICE neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesECU 46–18 RICE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesECU 49–14 RICE neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesECU 53–11 RICE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesECU 21–35 RICE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesECU 25–32 RICE neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesECU 28–28 RICE neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesECU 32–25 RICE neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesECU 35–21 RICE neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesECU 39–18 RICE neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesECU 42–14 RICE neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesECU 46–11 RICE neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesECU 49–7 RICE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesECU 18–32 RICE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesECU 21–28 RICE neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesECU 25–25 RICE neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesECU 28–21 RICE neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesECU 32–18 RICE neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesECU 35–14 RICE neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesECU 39–11 RICE neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesECU 42–7 RICE neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesECU 46–4 RICE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesECU 14–28 RICE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesECU 18–25 RICE neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesECU 21–21 RICE neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesECU 25–18 RICE neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesECU 28–14 RICE neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesECU 32–11 RICE neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesECU 35–7 RICE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesECU 39–4 RICE neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesECU 42–0 RICE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesECU 11–25 RICE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesECU 14–21 RICE neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesECU 18–18 RICE neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesECU 21–14 RICE neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesECU 25–11 RICE neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesECU 28–7 RICE neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesECU 32–4 RICE neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesECU 35–0 RICE neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)ECU 7–21 RICE neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesECU 11–18 RICE neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesECU 14–14 RICE neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesECU 18–11 RICE neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesECU 21–7 RICE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesECU 25–4 RICE neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesECU 28–0 RICE neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalRICE +14PKECU +14ECU +28ECU +42margin →