AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 4:00 AM
#82Away
Navy
0-0 · AVR 46.3
25p
#62Home
UTSA
0-0 · AVR 50.5
34p
NAVY 26%74% UTSA
Spread
UTSA -9.2
Total
59
Moneyline
NAVY+282UTSA-282
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← NAVY advantageevenUTSA advantage →
NAVY throw
NAVY QB #104NAVY protection #4
even
NAVY run
UTSA linebackers #18
NAVY +32
UTSA throw
UTSA protection #91
UTSA +50
UTSA run
UTSA backs #44NAVY front #140
UTSA +14

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Gutierrez
Ben Reiland
vs
Eddy Smith
LT · NAVY
EDGE · UTSA
101.4
62.9
NAVY +39
when UTSA runs
Will Henderson III
vs
MarcAnthony Parker
RB · UTSA
MLB · NAVY
74.5
74.9
dead even
when NAVY throws
Joshua Guerin
vs
Joel Rogers
X · NAVY
CB1 · UTSA
54.7
76.0
UTSA +21
when UTSA throws
AJ Wilson Jr.
vs
Matthew Seliga
X · UTSA
CB1 · NAVY
72.9
53.9
UTSA +19
over the middle
Jordan Collins
vs
Louie Hogan
TE · NAVY
FS · UTSA
56.9
56.2
dead even
off the edge· hunting McCown
Jonah Miller
vs
Griffen Willis
LT · UTSA
EDGE · NAVY
48.7
57.0
NAVY +8

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Navy
LBMarcAnthony Parker
74.9107/878
LBColeman Cauley
69.1160/878
TEJordan Collins
56.979/287
WRJoshua Guerin
54.7182/777
SMatthew Seliga
53.9653/1427
LBJob Grant
53.6411/878
UTSA
LBCamron Cooper
81.644/878
LBElijah Baldwin
76.393/878
SJoel Rogers
76.0139/1427
RBWill Henderson III
74.536/514
WRAJ Wilson Jr.
72.940/777
QBOwen McCown
69.141/308

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Navy
opponent
UTSA
away+4.1
UAB#121
+10.9away
home+0.4
North Texas#80
+7.2home
away+2.0
Florida Atlantic#108
+8.7away
home+8.0
Tulsa#110
+14.7home

Projected margin

80% between -8 and 27
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUTSA +9.295% interval: -14.7 to 33.280% interval: -8.1 to 26.6-8+27NAVY wins 26%UTSA wins 74%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UTSA 32–25 NAVYUTSA 28–49 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUTSA 32–46 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUTSA 35–42 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUTSA 39–39 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUTSA 42–35 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUTSA 46–32 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUTSA 49–28 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUTSA 53–25 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUTSA 56–21 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTSA 25–46 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTSA 28–42 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUTSA 32–39 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUTSA 35–35 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUTSA 39–32 NAVY neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUTSA 42–28 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUTSA 46–25 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUTSA 49–21 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUTSA 53–18 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUTSA 21–42 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTSA 25–39 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUTSA 28–35 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUTSA 32–32 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUTSA 35–28 NAVY neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUTSA 39–25 NAVY neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUTSA 42–21 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUTSA 46–18 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUTSA 49–14 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUTSA 18–39 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTSA 21–35 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUTSA 25–32 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUTSA 28–28 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUTSA 32–25 NAVY neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUTSA 35–21 NAVY neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUTSA 39–18 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUTSA 42–14 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUTSA 46–11 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUTSA 14–35 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTSA 18–32 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUTSA 21–28 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUTSA 25–25 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUTSA 28–21 NAVY neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUTSA 32–18 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUTSA 35–14 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUTSA 39–11 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUTSA 42–7 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUTSA 11–32 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUTSA 14–28 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUTSA 18–25 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUTSA 21–21 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUTSA 25–18 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUTSA 28–14 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUTSA 32–11 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUTSA 35–7 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUTSA 39–4 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTSA 7–28 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesUTSA 11–25 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTSA 14–21 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUTSA 18–18 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUTSA 21–14 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUTSA 25–11 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUTSA 28–7 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUTSA 32–4 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUTSA 35–0 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalNAVY +21NAVY +7UTSA +7UTSA +21UTSA +35margin →