CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 8:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
NAVY 30.7%69.3% UTSA
Projected margin
UTSA by 7.7
Projected total
57
80% outcome range
NAVY 11 to UTSA 26
Win probability
UTSA 69.3%

Current team profiles

Navy
UTSA

When Navy has the ball

Passing

UTSA defense
Higher-ranked profile
NAVY offense
#119
UTSA defense
#60
EPA comparison
0.04
#119
0.11
#60
Pass EPA

Rushing

NAVY offense
Higher-ranked profile
NAVY offense
#12
UTSA defense
#93
EPA comparison
0.26
#12
0.10
#93
Rush EPA

Drive success

NAVY offense
Higher-ranked profile
NAVY offense
#30
UTSA defense
#80
Success rates
48%
#30
41%
#80
Success rate
More metrics
0.20
#48
0.06
#68
EPA / play
1.14
#112
1.15
#34
Explosiveness
14%
#50
13%
#119
Havoc

When UTSA has the ball

Passing

UTSA offense
Higher-ranked profile
NAVY defense
#109
UTSA offense
#78
EPA comparison
0.29
#109
0.19
#78
Pass EPA

Rushing

UTSA offense
Higher-ranked profile
NAVY defense
#41
UTSA offense
#12
EPA comparison
-0.01
#41
0.26
#12
Rush EPA

Drive success

NAVY defense
Higher-ranked profile
NAVY defense
#34
UTSA offense
#38
Success rates
36%
#34
47%
#38
Success rate
More metrics
0.09
#83
0.23
#34
EPA / play
1.38
#126
1.14
#114
Explosiveness
13%
#113
12%
#27
Havoc

Current key players

Navy
QBBraxton Woodson
71 yds · 0 TD · 1 INT
75.7107/729
LBMarcAnthony Parker
33 tkl · 6.0 TFL · 4.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
81.8
Coverage
65.5
Pressures
8
Pass-rush snaps
22
Missed tackles
5
Forced fumbles
0
80.970/1796
LBColeman Cauley
31 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
81.4
Coverage
69.0
Pressures
9
Pass-rush snaps
27
Missed tackles
7
Forced fumbles
0
78.6106/1796
RBJacob Williams
34 yds · 0 TD · 6.8 YPC
71.6269/1044
WRTruman Brasfield
2 rec · 107 yds · 1 TD
69.1301/2069
WRCharles Robinson
6 rec · 50 yds · 1 TD
68.9311/2069
Availability reports · 4
  • Landon Walker · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Walker is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Roadrunners on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Jake Norris · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Norris is hampered with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against UTSA on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Merrick Barlow · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Barlow is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Roadrunners on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Jeremiah Chalmers · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Chalmers is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Roadrunners on Saturday, October 17th.

UTSA
QBMark Wiepert
— yds · — TD · — INT
68.6178/729
RBA'Marion Peterson
194 yds · 4 TD · 7.2 YPC
89.212/1044
LBCamron Cooper
14 tkl · 3.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
80.6
Coverage
72.1
Pressures
7
Pass-rush snaps
92
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
0
77.5127/1796
CBZach Morris
9 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
71.9
Coverage
75.4
Targets allowed
7
Rec allowed
4
Yards allowed
65
Passer rating allowed
48.8
Missed tackles
1
76.4146/2969
WRDJ Allen Jr.
18 rec · 269 yds · 2 TD
76.0109/2069
LBBrandon Tucker
44 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
81.3
Coverage
57.1
Pressures
3
Pass-rush snaps
16
Missed tackles
3
Forced fumbles
0
73.2252/1796
Availability reports · 1
  • Bryson Donnell · RBout · 2026-10-10

    Donnell has been out of lineup due to an undisclosed injury, and he is likely to miss the remainder of the season.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

NAVY
UTSA
vs
Offense
75.7
#80 of 138
QB
68.6
#107 of 138
69.1
#124 of 138
RB
84.7
#11 of 138
68.9
#96 of 138
WR
68.5
#100 of 138
59.6
#125 of 138
TE
64.0
#96 of 138
67.5
#73 of 138
OL
65.0
#95 of 138
Defense
70.3
#104 of 138
DL
69.5
#113 of 138
78.5
#34 of 138
LB
73.9
#71 of 138
63.4
#138 of 138
DB
70.1
#97 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Navy
opponent
UTSA
A-4.0
UAB#137
+12.6A
A-8.0
FAU#88
+8.1A
H+0.1
UNT#64
+5.2H
H+8.0
TLSA#98
+12.8H