CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 8 · Thu Oct 22 · 7:30 PM ET
Forecast win probability
ECU 25.2%74.8% MEM
Projected margin
MEM by 10.7
Projected total
55
80% outcome range
ECU 8 to MEM 29
Win probability
MEM 74.8%

Current team profiles

East Carolina
Memphis

When East Carolina has the ball

Passing

MEM defense
Higher-ranked profile
ECU offense
#92
MEM defense
#26
EPA comparison
0.13
#92
0.01
#26
Pass EPA

Rushing

ECU offense
Higher-ranked profile
ECU offense
#116
MEM defense
#119
EPA comparison
-0.02
#116
0.16
#119
Rush EPA

Drive success

MEM defense
Higher-ranked profile
ECU offense
#119
MEM defense
#62
Success rates
38%
#119
40%
#62
Success rate
More metrics
0.04
#110
0.06
#72
EPA / play
1.22
#75
1.35
#117
Explosiveness
19%
#128
17%
#57
Havoc

When Memphis has the ball

Passing

MEM offense
Higher-ranked profile
ECU defense
#7
MEM offense
#5
EPA comparison
-0.10
#7
0.56
#5
Pass EPA

Rushing

MEM offense
Higher-ranked profile
ECU defense
#41
MEM offense
#25
EPA comparison
-0.01
#41
0.22
#25
Rush EPA

Drive success

ECU defense
Higher-ranked profile
ECU defense
#11
MEM offense
#17
Success rates
34%
#11
50%
#17
Success rate
More metrics
-0.07
#15
0.28
#22
EPA / play
1.24
#82
1.26
#50
Explosiveness
21%
#12
11%
#14
Havoc

Current key players

East Carolina
QBMitch Griffis
425 yds · 3 TD · 2 INT
56.8332/729
DBMyles Pollard
9 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
66.2
Coverage
88.3
Targets allowed
4
Rec allowed
4
Yards allowed
41
Passer rating allowed
69.8
Missed tackles
1
83.733/2969
RBAshton Gray
152 yds · 0 TD · 4.8 YPC
83.646/1044
LBDJ Johnson Jr.
29 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 0.5 sk
Player detail
Run defense
85.0
Coverage
75.6
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
20
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
80.873/1796
LBLJ Porter
3 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
63.8
Coverage
64.7
Pressures
2
Pass-rush snaps
5
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
77.1139/1796
DBAyden Duncanson
6 tkl · 0 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
40.2
Coverage
89.2
Targets allowed
9
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
110
Passer rating allowed
69.0
Missed tackles
3
77.0123/2969
Availability reports · 1
  • Jeremiah Melvin · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Melvin is dealing with a back injury, and it is unknown if he will face UAB on Friday.

Memphis
QBMarcus Stokes
1371 yds · 14 TD · 3 INT
85.441/729
RBDallan Hayden
172 yds · 1 TD · 6.4 YPC
88.616/1044
LBTylon Nash
6 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
76.1
Coverage
73.9
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
84.348/1796
TEHunter Tipton
19 rec · 367 yds · 5 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
54.9
Run blocking
44.5
Penalties
0
77.338/1017
CBEllis Ellis Jr.
9 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
85.5
Coverage
72.4
Targets allowed
6
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
43
Passer rating allowed
73.6
Missed tackles
0
76.4147/2969
WRJermane Hayes
22 rec · 242 yds · 2 TD
74.8130/2069
Position units

Position-unit comparison

ECU
MEM
vs
Offense
56.8
#137 of 138
QB
85.4
#38 of 138
78.5
#44 of 138
RB
87.3
#5 of 138
72.5
#52 of 138
WR
68.2
#104 of 138
62.0
#106 of 138
TE
77.3
#32 of 138
61.1
#127 of 138
OL
67.2
#75 of 138
Defense
77.0
#36 of 138
DL
69.7
#111 of 138
77.7
#39 of 138
LB
75.3
#57 of 138
75.0
#33 of 138
DB
70.9
#83 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

East Carolina
opponent
Memphis
A+13.8
CLT#184
+51.0A
A+6.3
UAB#137
+25.0H
A-4.4
ARMY#53
+9.0H
H+5.1
TEM#108
+13.1H
H-5.9
USF#76
-3.2A