AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 8 · Thu Oct 22 · 11:30 PM
#77Away
East Carolina
0-0 · AVR 47.2
25p
#63Home
Memphis
0-0 · AVR 50.4
30p
ECU 39%62% MEM
Spread
MEM -4.5
Total
55
Moneyline
ECU+160MEM-160
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ECU advantageevenMEM advantage →
ECU throw
ECU protection #25
MEM +25
ECU run
even
MEM throw
MEM QB #126MEM protection #48
ECU +38
MEM run
ECU +35

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Noland
Brian Grant
vs
Jasiyah Robinson
LT · MEM
EDGE · ECU
79.2
93.2
ECU +14
off the edge· hunting Griffis
Karson Jones
vs
J'Mond Tapp
LT · ECU
EDGE · MEM
69.2
86.2
MEM +17
when ECU throws
Brock Spalding
vs
Ian Foster
X · ECU
CB1 · MEM
52.8
90.2
MEM +37
when MEM throws
Brady Kluse
vs
Kevon Merrell Jr.
X · MEM
CB1 · ECU
60.4
74.1
ECU +14
when ECU runs
Michael Allen
vs
Mike Montgomery
RB · ECU
MLB · MEM
58.2
71.4
MEM +13
when MEM runs
Manny Covey
vs
DJ Johnson Jr.
RB · MEM
MLB · ECU
55.7
73.7
ECU +18

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
East Carolina
DBKevon Merrell Jr.
74.1163/1427
LBDJ Johnson Jr.
73.7115/878
LBCrews Law
70.2143/878
DBZyeir Gamble
66.6319/1427
DBDerrion Horsley
65.2352/1427
QBMitch Griffis
59.771/308
Memphis
SIan Foster
90.210/1427
CBAnthony Richard Jr.
87.922/1427
SAhmere Foster
79.694/1427
LBMike Montgomery
71.4130/878
LBJayden Parrish
62.8245/878
WRBrady Kluse
60.4113/777

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
East Carolina
opponent
Memphis
away+5.9
UAB#121
+12.9home
away+6.7
Army#118
+13.7home
home+1.7
South Florida#78
-1.4away
home+9.4
Temple#113
+11.4home
away+12.8
Charlotte#135
+14.7away

Projected margin

80% between -13 and 22
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMEM +4.595% interval: -19.4 to 28.480% interval: -12.9 to 21.9-13+22ECU wins 39%MEM wins 62%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MEM 32–25 ECUMEM 28–49 ECU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMEM 32–46 ECU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMEM 35–42 ECU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMEM 39–39 ECU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMEM 42–35 ECU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMEM 46–32 ECU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMEM 49–28 ECU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMEM 53–25 ECU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMEM 56–21 ECU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesMEM 25–46 ECU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMEM 28–42 ECU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMEM 32–39 ECU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMEM 35–35 ECU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMEM 39–32 ECU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMEM 42–28 ECU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMEM 46–25 ECU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMEM 49–21 ECU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMEM 53–18 ECU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMEM 21–42 ECU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMEM 25–39 ECU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMEM 28–35 ECU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMEM 32–32 ECU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMEM 35–28 ECU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMEM 39–25 ECU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMEM 42–21 ECU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMEM 46–18 ECU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMEM 49–14 ECU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMEM 18–39 ECU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMEM 21–35 ECU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMEM 25–32 ECU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMEM 28–28 ECU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMEM 32–25 ECU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMEM 35–21 ECU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMEM 39–18 ECU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMEM 42–14 ECU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMEM 46–11 ECU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMEM 14–35 ECU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMEM 18–32 ECU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMEM 21–28 ECU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMEM 25–25 ECU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMEM 28–21 ECU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMEM 32–18 ECU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMEM 35–14 ECU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMEM 39–11 ECU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMEM 42–7 ECU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMEM 11–32 ECU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMEM 14–28 ECU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMEM 18–25 ECU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMEM 21–21 ECU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMEM 25–18 ECU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMEM 28–14 ECU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMEM 32–11 ECU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMEM 35–7 ECU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMEM 39–4 ECU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMEM 7–28 ECU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMEM 11–25 ECU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMEM 14–21 ECU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMEM 18–18 ECU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMEM 21–14 ECU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMEM 25–11 ECU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMEM 28–7 ECU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMEM 32–4 ECU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMEM 35–0 ECU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalECU +21ECU +7MEM +7MEM +21MEM +35margin →