AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 4:00 AM
#127Away
Rice
0-0 · AVR 28.9
24p
#108Home
Florida Atlantic
0-0 · AVR 36.6
32p
RICE 29%71% FAU
Spread
FAU -8.1
Total
57
Moneyline
RICE+241FAU-241
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← RICE advantageevenFAU advantage →
RICE throw
FAU +29
RICE run
RICE backs #76
FAU +25
FAU throw
FAU +52
FAU run
FAU +33

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when RICE runs
Quinton Jackson
vs
Joseph Sipp Jr.
RB · RICE
MLB · FAU
65.9
71.4
FAU +5
off the edge· hunting Veltkamp
Vincent Fiacable
vs
Chibby Nwajuaku
LT · FAU
EDGE · RICE
71.7
62.7
FAU +9
when FAU throws
Easton Messer
vs
Ahran Ogbor
X · FAU
CB1 · RICE
67.8
55.9
FAU +12
when RICE throws
Davis Lane
vs
Jay Crable
X · RICE
CB1 · FAU
48.3
67.8
FAU +19
when FAU runs
Kaden Shields-Dutton
vs
Stone Combs
RB · FAU
MLB · RICE
60.5
55.5
FAU +5
off the edge· hunting Ochoa
Peyton Farmer
vs
Blake Burris
LT · RICE
EDGE · FAU
22.1
81.1
FAU +59

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Rice
RBQuinton Jackson
65.971/514
SAhran Ogbor
55.9595/1427
LBStone Combs
55.5381/878
QBGael Ochoa
52.6129/308
WRDavis Lane
48.3364/777
LBAustin Harnetiaux
41.9637/878
Florida Atlantic
LBJoseph Sipp Jr.
71.4127/878
QBCaden Veltkamp
68.345/308
WREaston Messer
67.865/777
DBJay Crable
67.8283/1427
WRDominique Henry
66.376/777
DBJosh Roberts
60.8463/1427

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Rice
opponent
Florida Atlantic
home-14.3
UTSA#62
-8.7home
away-14.4
East Carolina#77
-8.8away
away-14.7
North Texas#80
-9.1away
home-0.2
Army#118
+0.5away
home-2.1
Tulsa#110
-1.5away

Projected margin

80% between -9 and 26
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKFAU +8.195% interval: -15.8 to 3280% interval: -9.3 to 25.5-9+26RICE wins 29%FAU wins 71%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ FAU 32–25 RICEFAU 28–49 RICE neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFAU 32–46 RICE neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFAU 35–42 RICE neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesFAU 39–39 RICE neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFAU 42–35 RICE neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesFAU 46–32 RICE neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesFAU 49–28 RICE neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesFAU 53–25 RICE neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFAU 56–21 RICE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFAU 25–46 RICE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFAU 28–42 RICE neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFAU 32–39 RICE neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesFAU 35–35 RICE neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesFAU 39–32 RICE neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesFAU 42–28 RICE neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesFAU 46–25 RICE neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFAU 49–21 RICE neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesFAU 53–18 RICE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFAU 21–42 RICE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFAU 25–39 RICE neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesFAU 28–35 RICE neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFAU 32–32 RICE neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesFAU 35–28 RICE neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesFAU 39–25 RICE neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesFAU 42–21 RICE neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesFAU 46–18 RICE neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesFAU 49–14 RICE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFAU 18–39 RICE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFAU 21–35 RICE neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesFAU 25–32 RICE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesFAU 28–28 RICE neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesFAU 32–25 RICE neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesFAU 35–21 RICE neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesFAU 39–18 RICE neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesFAU 42–14 RICE neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesFAU 46–11 RICE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFAU 14–35 RICE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFAU 18–32 RICE neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesFAU 21–28 RICE neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFAU 25–25 RICE neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesFAU 28–21 RICE neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesFAU 32–18 RICE neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesFAU 35–14 RICE neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesFAU 39–11 RICE neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesFAU 42–7 RICE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFAU 11–32 RICE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFAU 14–28 RICE neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFAU 18–25 RICE neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesFAU 21–21 RICE neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesFAU 25–18 RICE neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesFAU 28–14 RICE neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesFAU 32–11 RICE neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesFAU 35–7 RICE neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesFAU 39–4 RICE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFAU 7–28 RICE neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFAU 11–25 RICE neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFAU 14–21 RICE neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesFAU 18–18 RICE neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesFAU 21–14 RICE neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesFAU 25–11 RICE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesFAU 28–7 RICE neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesFAU 32–4 RICE neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesFAU 35–0 RICE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalRICE +21RICE +7FAU +7FAU +21FAU +35margin →