AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 7:30 PM
#80Away
North Texas
0-0 · AVR 46.7
30p
#82Home
Navy
0-0 · AVR 46.3
31p
UNT 49%51% NAVY
Spread
NAVY -0.4
Total
61
Moneyline
UNT+105NAVY-105
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UNT advantageevenNAVY advantage →
UNT throw
UNT +44
UNT run
NAVY front #140NAVY linebackers #60
even
NAVY throw
NAVY QB #104NAVY protection #4
NAVY +6
NAVY run
NAVY +55

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Gutierrez
Ben Reiland
vs
Udoka Ezeani
LT · NAVY
EDGE · UNT
101.4
70.7
NAVY +31
when NAVY throws
Joshua Guerin
vs
Graham Gillespie
X · NAVY
CB1 · UNT
54.7
73.0
UNT +18
when UNT runs
Brendon Haygood
vs
MarcAnthony Parker
RB · UNT
MLB · NAVY
51.6
74.9
NAVY +23
when UNT throws
Andy Jean
vs
Matthew Seliga
X · UNT
CB1 · NAVY
56.0
53.9
dead even
over the middle
Jordan Collins
vs
Julian Knox Sr.
TE · NAVY
FS · UNT
56.9
52.4
NAVY +5
off the edge· hunting Jackson
Neto Umeozulu
vs
Griffen Willis
LT · UNT
EDGE · NAVY
42.5
57.0
NAVY +14

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
North Texas
SGraham Gillespie
73.0176/1427
QBTayven Jackson
61.064/308
LBAaron Alexander
58.9314/878
CBChase Canada
57.8537/1427
WRAndy Jean
56.0158/777
WRShandon King
55.1177/777
Navy
LBMarcAnthony Parker
74.9107/878
LBColeman Cauley
69.1160/878
TEJordan Collins
56.979/287
WRJoshua Guerin
54.7182/777
SMatthew Seliga
53.9653/1427
LBJob Grant
53.6411/878

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
North Texas
opponent
Navy
home+18.1
Charlotte#135
+11.0away
home+9.1
Florida Atlantic#108
+2.0away
home+11.2
UAB#121
+4.1away
away+5.1
Tulsa#110
+8.0home
away-7.2
UTSA#62
-9.2away

Projected margin

80% between -17 and 18
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKNAVY +0.495% interval: -23.5 to 24.380% interval: -17 to 17.8-17+18UNT wins 49%NAVY wins 51%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ NAVY 32–32 UNTNAVY 28–56 UNT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNAVY 32–53 UNT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNAVY 35–49 UNT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNAVY 39–46 UNT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNAVY 42–42 UNT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNAVY 46–39 UNT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNAVY 49–35 UNT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNAVY 53–32 UNT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNAVY 56–28 UNT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNAVY 25–53 UNT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNAVY 28–49 UNT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNAVY 32–46 UNT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNAVY 35–42 UNT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNAVY 39–39 UNT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNAVY 42–35 UNT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNAVY 46–32 UNT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNAVY 49–28 UNT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNAVY 53–25 UNT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNAVY 21–49 UNT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNAVY 25–46 UNT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNAVY 28–42 UNT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNAVY 32–39 UNT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNAVY 35–35 UNT neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNAVY 39–32 UNT neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesNAVY 42–28 UNT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNAVY 46–25 UNT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNAVY 49–21 UNT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNAVY 18–46 UNT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNAVY 21–42 UNT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNAVY 25–39 UNT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNAVY 28–35 UNT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNAVY 32–32 UNT neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesNAVY 35–28 UNT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNAVY 39–25 UNT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNAVY 42–21 UNT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNAVY 46–18 UNT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNAVY 14–42 UNT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNAVY 18–39 UNT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNAVY 21–35 UNT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNAVY 25–32 UNT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNAVY 28–28 UNT neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesNAVY 32–25 UNT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNAVY 35–21 UNT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNAVY 39–18 UNT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNAVY 42–14 UNT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNAVY 11–39 UNT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNAVY 14–35 UNT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNAVY 18–32 UNT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNAVY 21–28 UNT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNAVY 25–25 UNT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNAVY 28–21 UNT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNAVY 32–18 UNT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNAVY 35–14 UNT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNAVY 39–11 UNT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNAVY 7–35 UNT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNAVY 11–32 UNT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNAVY 14–28 UNT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNAVY 18–25 UNT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNAVY 21–21 UNT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNAVY 25–18 UNT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNAVY 28–14 UNT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNAVY 32–11 UNT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNAVY 35–7 UNT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes84777063564942totalUNT +28UNT +14PKNAVY +14NAVY +28margin →