AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 9 · Thu Oct 29 · 11:30 PM
#108Away
Florida Atlantic
0-0 · AVR 36.6
27p
#80Home
North Texas
0-0 · AVR 46.7
36p
FAU 27%73% UNT
Spread
UNT -9.1
Total
63
Moneyline
FAU+275UNT-275
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← FAU advantageevenUNT advantage →
FAU throw
FAU +26
FAU run
FAU +15
UNT throw
UNT +5
UNT run
FAU +21

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Veltkamp
Vincent Fiacable
vs
Udoka Ezeani
LT · FAU
EDGE · UNT
71.7
70.7
dead even
when FAU throws
Easton Messer
vs
Graham Gillespie
X · FAU
CB1 · UNT
67.8
73.0
UNT +5
when UNT throws
Andy Jean
vs
Jay Crable
X · UNT
CB1 · FAU
56.0
67.8
FAU +12
off the edge· hunting Jackson
Neto Umeozulu
vs
Blake Burris
LT · UNT
EDGE · FAU
42.5
81.1
FAU +39
when UNT runs
Brendon Haygood
vs
Joseph Sipp Jr.
RB · UNT
MLB · FAU
51.6
71.4
FAU +20
when FAU runs
Kaden Shields-Dutton
vs
Aaron Alexander
RB · FAU
MLB · UNT
60.5
58.9
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Florida Atlantic
LBJoseph Sipp Jr.
71.4127/878
QBCaden Veltkamp
68.345/308
WREaston Messer
67.865/777
DBJay Crable
67.8283/1427
WRDominique Henry
66.376/777
DBJosh Roberts
60.8463/1427
North Texas
SGraham Gillespie
73.0176/1427
QBTayven Jackson
61.064/308
LBAaron Alexander
58.9314/878
CBChase Canada
57.8537/1427
WRAndy Jean
56.0158/777
WRShandon King
55.1177/777

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Florida Atlantic
opponent
North Texas
home+8.1
Rice#127
+14.7home
away-1.5
Tulsa#110
+5.1away
home-2.0
Navy#82
-0.4away
home-8.7
UTSA#62
-7.2away

Projected margin

80% between -8 and 27
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUNT +9.195% interval: -14.8 to 3380% interval: -8.3 to 26.5-8+27FAU wins 27%UNT wins 73%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UNT 35–28 FAUUNT 32–53 FAU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNT 35–49 FAU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNT 39–46 FAU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUNT 42–42 FAU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUNT 46–39 FAU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUNT 49–35 FAU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUNT 53–32 FAU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUNT 56–28 FAU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUNT 60–25 FAU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNT 28–49 FAU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNT 32–46 FAU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUNT 35–42 FAU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUNT 39–39 FAU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUNT 42–35 FAU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUNT 46–32 FAU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUNT 49–28 FAU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNT 53–25 FAU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUNT 56–21 FAU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNT 25–46 FAU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNT 28–42 FAU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUNT 32–39 FAU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUNT 35–35 FAU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUNT 39–32 FAU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUNT 42–28 FAU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUNT 46–25 FAU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUNT 49–21 FAU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUNT 53–18 FAU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUNT 21–42 FAU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNT 25–39 FAU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUNT 28–35 FAU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUNT 32–32 FAU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUNT 35–28 FAU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUNT 39–25 FAU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUNT 42–21 FAU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUNT 46–18 FAU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUNT 49–14 FAU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUNT 18–39 FAU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNT 21–35 FAU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUNT 25–32 FAU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUNT 28–28 FAU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUNT 32–25 FAU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUNT 35–21 FAU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUNT 39–18 FAU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUNT 42–14 FAU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUNT 46–11 FAU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUNT 14–35 FAU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNT 18–32 FAU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUNT 21–28 FAU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUNT 25–25 FAU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUNT 28–21 FAU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUNT 32–18 FAU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUNT 35–14 FAU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNT 39–11 FAU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUNT 42–7 FAU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNT 11–32 FAU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNT 14–28 FAU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNT 18–25 FAU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUNT 21–21 FAU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUNT 25–18 FAU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUNT 28–14 FAU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUNT 32–11 FAU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUNT 35–7 FAU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUNT 39–4 FAU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes84777063564942totalFAU +21FAU +7UNT +7UNT +21UNT +35margin →