AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Fri Nov 6 · 1:00 AM
#62Away
UTSA
0-0 · AVR 50.5
35p
#108Home
Florida Atlantic
0-0 · AVR 36.6
26p
UTSA 73%27% FAU
Spread
UTSA -8.7
Total
61
Moneyline
UTSA-266FAU+266
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UTSA advantageevenFAU advantage →
UTSA throw
UTSA protection #91
UTSA +12
UTSA run
UTSA backs #44
FAU +5
FAU throw
FAU +23
FAU run
UTSA linebackers #18
UTSA +9

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when UTSA runs
Will Henderson III
vs
Joseph Sipp Jr.
RB · UTSA
MLB · FAU
74.5
71.4
UTSA +3
when FAU throws
Easton Messer
vs
Joel Rogers
X · FAU
CB1 · UTSA
67.8
76.0
UTSA +8
when FAU runs
Kaden Shields-Dutton
vs
Camron Cooper
RB · FAU
MLB · UTSA
60.5
81.6
UTSA +21
when UTSA throws
AJ Wilson Jr.
vs
Jay Crable
X · UTSA
CB1 · FAU
72.9
67.8
UTSA +5
off the edge· hunting Veltkamp
Vincent Fiacable
vs
Eddy Smith
LT · FAU
EDGE · UTSA
71.7
62.9
FAU +9
off the edge· hunting McCown
Jonah Miller
vs
Blake Burris
LT · UTSA
EDGE · FAU
48.7
81.1
FAU +32

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
UTSA
LBCamron Cooper
81.644/878
LBElijah Baldwin
76.393/878
SJoel Rogers
76.0139/1427
RBWill Henderson III
74.536/514
WRAJ Wilson Jr.
72.940/777
QBOwen McCown
69.141/308
Florida Atlantic
LBJoseph Sipp Jr.
71.4127/878
QBCaden Veltkamp
68.345/308
WREaston Messer
67.865/777
DBJay Crable
67.8283/1427
WRDominique Henry
66.376/777
DBJosh Roberts
60.8463/1427

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
UTSA
opponent
Florida Atlantic
home+7.2
North Texas#80
-9.1away
home+14.7
Tulsa#110
-1.5away
home+6.6
South Florida#78
-4.6home
home+9.2
Navy#82
-2.0home
away+14.3
Rice#127
+8.1home

Projected margin

80% between -26 and 9
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUTSA +8.795% interval: -32.6 to 15.280% interval: -26.1 to 8.7-26+9UTSA wins 73%FAU wins 27%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UTSA 35–28 FAUFAU 25–60 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFAU 28–56 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesFAU 32–53 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesFAU 35–49 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFAU 39–46 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesFAU 42–42 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesFAU 46–39 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesFAU 49–35 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFAU 53–32 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFAU 21–56 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFAU 25–53 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesFAU 28–49 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesFAU 32–46 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesFAU 35–42 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesFAU 39–39 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesFAU 42–35 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesFAU 46–32 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesFAU 49–28 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFAU 18–53 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFAU 21–49 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesFAU 25–46 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesFAU 28–42 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesFAU 32–39 UTSA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesFAU 35–35 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesFAU 39–32 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesFAU 42–28 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFAU 46–25 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFAU 14–49 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFAU 18–46 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesFAU 21–42 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesFAU 25–39 UTSA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesFAU 28–35 UTSA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesFAU 32–32 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesFAU 35–28 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFAU 39–25 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesFAU 42–21 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFAU 11–46 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFAU 14–42 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesFAU 18–39 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesFAU 21–35 UTSA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesFAU 25–32 UTSA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesFAU 28–28 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesFAU 32–25 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesFAU 35–21 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesFAU 39–18 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFAU 7–42 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFAU 11–39 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesFAU 14–35 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesFAU 18–32 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesFAU 21–28 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesFAU 25–25 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesFAU 28–21 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesFAU 32–18 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFAU 35–14 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFAU 4–39 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFAU 7–35 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesFAU 11–32 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesFAU 14–28 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesFAU 18–25 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesFAU 21–21 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesFAU 25–18 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesFAU 28–14 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFAU 32–11 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes84777063564942totalUTSA +35UTSA +21UTSA +7FAU +7FAU +21margin →