AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 12:30 AM
#78Away
South Florida
0-0 · AVR 47.2
28p
#77Home
East Carolina
0-0 · AVR 47.2
29p
USF 45%55% ECU
Spread
ECU -1.7
Total
57
Moneyline
USF+122ECU-122
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← USF advantageevenECU advantage →
USF throw
USF QB #111USF protection #14
ECU +25
USF run
USF backs #74
ECU +14
ECU throw
ECU protection #25
ECU +12
ECU run
ECU +17

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Bradford
Ethan Green
vs
Jasiyah Robinson
LT · USF
EDGE · ECU
97.0
93.2
USF +4
off the edge· hunting Griffis
Karson Jones
vs
Jahari Grant
LT · ECU
EDGE · USF
69.2
65.2
ECU +4
when USF runs
Alvon Isaac
vs
DJ Johnson Jr.
RB · USF
MLB · ECU
60.0
73.7
ECU +14
when ECU runs
Michael Allen
vs
MarShon Oxley
RB · ECU
MLB · USF
58.2
73.7
USF +15
when USF throws
Mudia Reuben
vs
Kevon Merrell Jr.
X · USF
CB1 · ECU
56.0
74.1
ECU +18
when ECU throws
Brock Spalding
vs
Tavin Ward
X · ECU
CB1 · USF
52.8
70.7
USF +18

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
South Florida
LBMarShon Oxley
73.7114/878
STavin Ward
70.7218/1427
LBShamar Meikle
67.0191/878
CBJair Murphy
65.9337/1427
TEEvan Dangler
60.651/287
RBAlvon Isaac
60.0109/514
East Carolina
DBKevon Merrell Jr.
74.1163/1427
LBDJ Johnson Jr.
73.7115/878
LBCrews Law
70.2143/878
DBZyeir Gamble
66.6319/1427
DBDerrion Horsley
65.2352/1427
QBMitch Griffis
59.771/308

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
South Florida
opponent
East Carolina
home+1.4
Memphis#63
-4.5away
home+11.7
UAB#121
+5.9away
away+4.6
Florida Atlantic#108
+8.8home
home+10.3
Temple#113
+9.4home
away+7.5
Army#118
+6.7away

Projected margin

80% between -16 and 19
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKECU +1.795% interval: -22.2 to 25.680% interval: -15.7 to 19-16+19USF wins 45%ECU wins 55%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ECU 28–28 USFECU 25–53 USF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesECU 28–49 USF neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesECU 32–46 USF neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesECU 35–42 USF neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesECU 39–39 USF neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesECU 42–35 USF neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesECU 46–32 USF neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesECU 49–28 USF neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesECU 53–25 USF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesECU 21–49 USF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesECU 25–46 USF neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesECU 28–42 USF neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesECU 32–39 USF neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesECU 35–35 USF neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesECU 39–32 USF neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesECU 42–28 USF neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesECU 46–25 USF neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesECU 49–21 USF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesECU 18–46 USF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesECU 21–42 USF neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesECU 25–39 USF neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesECU 28–35 USF neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesECU 32–32 USF neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesECU 35–28 USF neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesECU 39–25 USF neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesECU 42–21 USF neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesECU 46–18 USF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesECU 14–42 USF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesECU 18–39 USF neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesECU 21–35 USF neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesECU 25–32 USF neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesECU 28–28 USF neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesECU 32–25 USF neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesECU 35–21 USF neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesECU 39–18 USF neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesECU 42–14 USF neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesECU 11–39 USF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesECU 14–35 USF neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesECU 18–32 USF neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesECU 21–28 USF neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesECU 25–25 USF neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesECU 28–21 USF neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesECU 32–18 USF neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesECU 35–14 USF neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesECU 39–11 USF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesECU 7–35 USF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesECU 11–32 USF neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesECU 14–28 USF neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesECU 18–25 USF neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesECU 21–21 USF neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesECU 25–18 USF neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesECU 28–14 USF neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesECU 32–11 USF neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesECU 35–7 USF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesECU 4–32 USF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesECU 7–28 USF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesECU 11–25 USF neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesECU 14–21 USF neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesECU 18–18 USF neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesECU 21–14 USF neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesECU 25–11 USF neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesECU 28–7 USF neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesECU 32–4 USF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalUSF +28USF +14PKECU +14ECU +28margin →